Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 24 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest rates x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy—Reform Proposals
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; transparency Policy; IMF's lending policy; surcharge structure; surcharge payment; surcharge rate; surcharge payer; SDR interest rate; Credit; Income distribution; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy with Uncertain Inflation Persistence
Luis Brandão-Marques
,
Roland Meeks
, and
Vina Nguyen
When uncertain about inflation persistence, central banks are well-advised to adopt a robust strategy when setting interest rates. This robust approach, characterized by a "better safe than sorry" philosophy, entails incurring a modest cost to safeguard against a protracted period of deviating inflation. Applied to the post-pandemic period of exceptional uncertainty and elevated inflation, this strategy would have called for a tightening bias. Specifically, a high level of uncertainty surrounding wage, profit, and price dynamics requires a more front-loaded increase in interest rates compared to a baseline scenario which the policymaker fully understands how shocks to those variables are transmitted to inflation and output. This paper provides empirical evidence of such uncertainty and estimates a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for the euro area to derive a robust interest rate path for the ECB which serves to illustrate the case for insuring against inflation turning out to have greater persistence.
Keywords:
Robust policy; monetary policy; uncertainty; inflation persistence; wage and price dynamics.; Monetary Policy stance; policy rule parameter; price Persistence; IMF working paper 2024/47; inflation expectation; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Wages; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Consequences of Falling Behind the Curve: Inflation Shocks and Policy Delays Under Rational and Behavioral Expectations
Mai Hakamada
and
Carl E. Walsh
Central banks in major industrialized economies were slow to react to the surge in inflation that began in early 2021. The proximate causes of this surge were the supply chain disruptions associated with the easing of COVID restrictions, fiscal policies designed to cushion the economic impact of COVID, and the impact on commodity prices and supply chains of the war in Ukraine. We investigate the consequences of policy delay in responding to inflation shocks. First, using a simple three-period model, we show how policy delay worsens inflation outcomes, but can mitigate or even reverse the output decline that occurs when policy responds without delay. Then, using a calibrated new Keynesian framework and two measures of loss that incorporate a “balanced approach” to weigh inflation and the output gap, we find that loss is monotonically increasing in the length of the delay. Loss is reduced if policy, when it does react, is more aggressive. To investigate whether these results are sensitive to the assumption of rational expectations, we consider cognitive discounting as an alternative assumption about expectations. With cognitive discounting, forward guidance is less powerful and results in a reduction in the costs of delay. Under either assumption about expectations, the costs of a short delay can be eliminated by adopting a less inertial policy rule and a more aggressive response to inflation.
Keywords:
monetary policy; inflation policy delay; behavioral expectations; falling behind the curve; Policy delay; inflation outcome; inflation shock; supply chain disruption; trend inflation; Inflation; Output gap; Rational expectations; Central bank policy rate; Real interest rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Fiscal Consolidation help Central Banks’ Fight Inflation?
Jiaqian Chen
,
Era Dabla-Norris
,
Carlos Goncalves
,
Zoltan Jakab
, and
Jesper Lindé
This paper argues case that a tighter fiscal policy stance can meaningfully support central banks in fighting inflation in both advanced and emerging market economies. While the standard textbook result suggest that monetary policy is much more effective than fiscal policy in battling inflation in open economies due to the exchange rate channel, we show that a tighter fiscal stance is notably more effective in the current situation. This is so because when many countries currently need to tighten the policy stance simultaneously, the exchange rate channel does not provide monetary policy with an edge over fiscal policy. We also show that fiscal consolidation can be helpful in small open emerging markets and developing economies by reaffirming their commitment to price stability, and by putting the fiscal house in order which reduces risk premiums and strengthens the currency. Furthermore, we show that spillovers from major economies can be more adverse from tighter monetary policy. By applying a two-agent New Keynesian modeling framework with unconstrained and hand-to-mouth households, we show that any adverse effects of tighter fiscal policy (relative to tighter monetary policy) on consumption inequality can be handled with a combination of general spending cuts and targeted transfers to vulnerable households.
Keywords:
Policy Coordination; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; High Inflation; fight inflation; inflation risk; fiscal policy stance; discretionary monetary policy; exchange rate channel; Inflation; Monetary tightening; Fiscal consolidation; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Keywords:
inflation; growth; monetary policy; labor; headline inflation; core inflation; coverage ratio; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; capitalization rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Energy prices; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Special Drawing Rights Allocation—Ex-Post Assessment Report
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This report follows up on the impact of the historic $650 billion 2021 SDR allocation on the global economy, documenting IMF members' use of the allocation and assessing its economic effects. The report finds that the allocation was beneficial for the global economy, helping meet the long-term global need for reserves and supporting market confidence. Members used the allocation mostly to increase international reserve buffers, with some emerging market and developing countries also using it to meet fiscal and external financing needs. While SDR interest costs have increased, members’ capacity to service SDR obligations remains generally adequate. Members’ use of the allocation was mostly in line with Fund advice, and the transparency and accountability of SDR holdings and use has been broadly appropriate, although some gaps remain. Voluntary SDR channeling from economically stronger to more vulnerable members has helped amplify the benefits of the allocation.
Keywords:
SDR channeling; service SDR obligation; SDR tracker; SDR converter; SDR department obligation; SDR interest rate; Freely usable currencies; International reserves; Credit default swap; Currencies; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY2023 and FY2024
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2023 and FY 2024 and proposes related decisions for the current and next financial year. The paper also includes a proposed decision to keep the margin for the rate of charge unchanged for financial year 2024. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2023 is projected at about SDR 1.8 billion, slightly lower than the April 2022 estimate.
Keywords:
Income Position; Lending Income; Investment Income; Expenditures; Margin for the Rate of Charge; Reserve Accumulation; Precautionary Balances; Pension; Provisioning; Payout; Reimbursement; GRA FY; end FY; transparency policy; retirement plan obligation; income outlook; Income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Discount rates; Credit risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—Review of Interest Rate Structure—Postponement
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper proposes to postpone the next review of the PRGT interest rate structure to end-July 2025, given the desirability to consider all policies regarding low-income country facilities—including those related to PRGT interest rates—at once in the context of 2024/25 Review of the Fund’s Concessional Facilities and Financing. As a result of this postponement, the interest rates on all PRGT credit would be kept at zero until the completion of the next review.
Keywords:
Concessional Financing; Interest Rate Structure; Low-Income Countries; Postponement; Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust; PRGT; 2024/25 Comprehensive PRGT Review; PRGT interest rate structure; PRGT interest rate mechanism; transparency policy; mechanism of the PRGT; PRGT interest rates; Poverty reduction strategy; SDR interest rate; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on balancing decarbonization with energy security in Poland. The paper describes the evolution and challenges related to the energy security situation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Poland over the last decades in the context of EU climate agenda. It also analyzes possible decarbonization paths and implications for energy import dependency. Despite increasing consumption of imported fossil fuels, Poland has managed to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. The energy dependency of Poland is well below the EU average, due to a high reliance on domestic coal, which accounts for 72 percent of coal-fired power generation. The Poland-specific policy scenarios assume significant changes in the electricity mix and varying degrees of decarbonization ambition. Economic outcomes, in particular for employment, depend on how carbon tax receipts are spent. The objectives of energy security and decarbonization can be aligned. Fossil fuel imports are the main source of risk for energy security, while also being responsible for almost half of energy-related CO2 emissions. Policies to shift away from these fuels will benefit both climate mitigation and energy security. While decarbonizing the power sector will not directly contribute to energy security, it can be achieved without endangering it.
Keywords:
GHG emission reduction; impulse response; decarbonization scenario; monetary policy ANALYSIS; monetary policy scenario; Greenhouse gas emissions; Carbon tax; Inflation; Output gap; Europe; Global