Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 608 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses perspectives on the Czech Republic’s structural productivity slowdown. The Czech economy has underperformed European peers in the post-pandemic period and economic convergence has come to a halt. This outcome is often attributed to the country’s links to specific slow growing trading partners and to its energy-intensive economic structure. A decline in productivity, along with a slower increase in the labor force has been a crucial factor. The paper focuses specifically on the challenge posed by declining productivity, uncovering multifaceted factors and dynamics at play. Empirical analysis suggests that further R&D investment could reduce gaps with the total factor productivity frontier, sector-specific bottlenecks should be addressed, and productivity-enhancing labor reallocation could be better supported by more targeted policies. Though structural transformation may be inevitable, it does not need to adversely affect productivity as observed in recent years. The Czech Republic may evolve towards a more mature, diversified economy with certain services playing an increasingly significant role.
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications
Saioa Armendariz
,
Carlos de Resende
,
Alice Fan
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Can Ugur
This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper starts by documenting a deterioration in export performance across the region. Using a constant share decomposition, it finds that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s declining export share has been mainly linked to a reduction in the ‘intensive margin’—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. Multivariate filtering techniques and estimates of the real effective exchange rates based on historical productivity trends, consistent with Balassa-Samuelson, confirm that differences in long-term total factor productivity growth have affected external competitiveness. While Estonia’s post-GFC slowdown in productivity growth and real exchange rate appreciation have eroded its competitive edge, Latvia and Lithuania have shown greater resilience, aided by more balanced real effective exchange rates and, for Lithuania, stronger corporate balance sheets. A micro-econometric analysis further reveals that resource misallocation, particularly in the services sector, has been a key driver of declining productivity in the region. These findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to improve allocative efficiency, boost productivity, and restore competitiveness in the Baltic region.
Keywords:
Export shares; Competitiveness; Productivity; Baltics; export share; productivity in the Baltic; resource misallocation; productivity trend; TFP dynamics; TFP deceleration; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper analyzes Argentina’s Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The 2022 EFF came about in extremely difficult circumstances. Argentina was unable to regain external viability under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement and faced large and concentrated repurchase obligations to the IMF. The combination of a gradualist reform strategy, large adverse shocks, and progressively weaker implementation resulted in outcomes substantially worse than in the baseline by end-2023. The program got off to a difficult start, with the surge in global commodity prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine feeding inflation expectations and creating additional fiscal spending needs that were met through direct and indirect monetization, further fueling inflation. A major course correction subsequently undertaken by the Milei government—notably a sharp fiscal consolidation, an upfront devaluation, and an end to monetary financing of the budget helped Argentina avert a full-blown crisis and make important strides toward macroeconomic stabilization. Overall, the 2022 EFF did not achieve its original macroeconomic objectives, but it was successful in easing the burden of Argentina’s financial obligations to the IMF by rescheduling repayments over 2026–2034, and may have helped Argentina avoid even worse outcomes in 2022–2023.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocked: Electricity Price Volatility Spillovers in Europe
Serhan Cevik
and
Yueshu Zhao
European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe.
Keywords:
Electricity prices; Volatility; Spillovers; Gravity model; Renewable energy; Electricity market reform; Europe; volatility spillover; spillover effect; markets in the EU; electricity market; Electricity; Gravity models
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Keywords:
core inflation basket; Ukrenergo's government; national bank of Ukraine; supervisory board; inflation expectation; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; International reserves; Debt sustainability; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Request for modifications of performance criteria, and Second review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternative Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements, Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement for Moldova. The recovery from adverse spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine and energy price shocks is taking hold. Growth picked up in 2024 and is expected to strengthen further in 2025, driven by robust domestic demand. Downside risks remain high, mainly related to Russia’s war in Ukraine and renewed energy shocks. While quantitative performance of the program has been strong, implementation of structural reforms has been uneven. Further reforms to enhance fiscal performance and the allocation of public resources, strengthen energy security, strengthen governance and the rule of law, and advance climate adaptation and mitigation are key to protect Moldova against shocks and improve its growth prospects.
Keywords:
Gradual consolidation; Consultation band; Energy security; Climate policy; Credit; EU integration; EU reform agenda; Natural disasters; Policy commitment; CB governance; Anti-corruption; Letter of intent.; B. government policy; weather events risk; energy transition; RSF reform; authorities' reform; reform measure; Fiscal risks; Budget planning and preparation; Climate change; Global
Cover The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
Evaluation Report Dec 2024
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

Keywords:
Exceptional access; IMF lending; safeguarding Fund resources; program design; uniformity of treatment; risk management; program success; EA program; surcharge rate; ToC of an Na arrangement; detailed Theory of Change; Debt sustainability; Reputational risk; Balance of payments need; Capital account crisis; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Guidance Note On The Financing Assurances And Sovereign Arrears Policies And The Fund's Role In Debt Restructurings
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Under its Articles of Agreement, the Fund may only provide financing to assist members to resolve their balance of payments problems and restore medium-term external viability and may only do so under adequate safeguards. The Fund’s inter-related policies on financing assurances, debt sustainability, and debt restructuring are relevant for restoring medium-term external viability. This note is designed as a reference and primer on these key sovereign debt-related Fund policies. It focuses on how to establish that a program is “fully financed” (i.e., the financing assurances policy), how to handle arrears owed by a member to its official and private creditors (i.e., the lending into arrears policies), and how to establish safeguards for continued Fund lending at the stage of program reviews (i.e., financing assurances reviews). It also provides guidance on the more general role of the Fund in debt-restructuring situations. It is the first comprehensive operational guidance on these policies, replacing the guidance previously available at the departmental level. The relevant Fund Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Keywords:
financing assurances Policy; financing assurances policy; sample financing assurance; Fund-supported program; Fund staff; Arrears; Debt restructuring; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Debt relief; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
A Recovery Short of Europe’s Full Potential
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe’s economy is recovering, benefiting from a strong crises’ response. Yet, the recovery is falling short of its full potential. Uncertainty about persistent core inflation, policy directions, and geopolitical conflicts is dampening the near-term outlook. In the longer term, perennially weak productivity growth—a result of limited scale and business dynamism–-amid new headwinds from fragmentation and climate change are holding back growth potential. Steady macro policies are needed to navigate an uncertain environment. This requires transitioning to a neutral monetary policy stance and reducing fiscal deficits without jeopardizing the recovery. Policymakers also need to tackle barriers to higher potential growth. A larger and more integrated single market for goods, services, and capital will incentivize investment, innovation, and generate scale benefits. Deepening European integration will also strengthen economic resilience by insulating businesses and labor markets from global fragmentation pressures. These are formidable policy challenges, but now is the time to bring Europe to its full potential.

Keywords:
Growth; inflation; outlook; potential growth; uncertainty; risk; macroeconomic policy; monetary policy; fiscal policy; financial sector policy; structural policy; EU climate; productivity slump; EU financing; governance framework; EU funds; EU country; competitiveness reform; value chain; inflation expectation; EU level; EU budget; CESEE region; Productivity; Purchasing power parity; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global