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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for a Stand-By Arrangement, and Cancellation of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
In the wake of the Covid pandemic, Serbia embarked on a well-paced consolidation path to rebuild buffers, supported by a program under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Given higher energy prices and domestic electricity production problems, high global inflation, weaker trading partner growth, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the authorities have requested financial support under a two-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) of SDR 1,898.92 million (290 percent of quota, about EUR 2.4 billion). The SBA supports economic and financial policies to address external and fiscal financing needs, maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, and continue to strengthen the economy’s performance and resilience through structural reforms. The PCI was cancelled upon approval of the SBA.
Keywords:
oil price shock; energy price inflation; energy price pressure; public debt debt ratio; reference rate; existing Policy Coordination Instrument; Inflation; Energy prices; Energy sector; Imports; Tariffs; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of North Macedonia: Request for an Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of North Macedonia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
North Macedonia's economy has been hit by two large external shocks. While recovering from the pandemic, the outlook deteriorated again following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sharply rising energy and food prices. Given high dependence on energy imports, the external financing need has increased, while at the same time, global financial conditions have tightened, increasing the cost of market financing.
Keywords:
authorities of the Republic; A. Policy commitment; policy implementation; authorities' action; government financing; EU accession negotiations; Energy prices; Inflation; Tariffs; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2015 Extended Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper focuses on Ukraine’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2015 Extended Arrangement. Sound fiscal and monetary policies since the 2014–2015 crisis have resulted in a sharp reduction in Ukraine’s external and internal imbalances. Public debt was put on a downward path, inflation has declined, and international reserves have recovered. The new Stand-By Arrangement will provide an anchor for the authorities’ efforts to address the impact of the crisis, while ensuring macroeconomic stability and safeguarding achievements to date. Together with support from the World Bank and the European Union, it will help address large financing needs. The program will focus on safeguarding medium-term fiscal sustainability, preserving central bank independence and the flexible exchange rate, and enhancing financial stability while recovering the costs from bank resolutions. The National Bank of Ukraine has skillfully managed monetary policy during a very challenging period. Central Bank independence should be preserved, and monetary and exchange rate policies should continue to provide a stable anchor in the context of the inflation-targeting regime, while allowing orderly exchange rate adjustment and preventing liquidity stress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; policy; emergency financing request; sound fiscal policy; policy priority; budget support; government financing; financing needs; fiscal financing; Structural reforms; Tariffs; Global; Corruption
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-State-Owned Enterprises–Fiscal Risk Management
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Paper on Ukraine highlights that good progress has been made in improving the disclosure and management of fiscal risks since the embedding of fiscal risks in the Budget Code in December 2018. The mission refined the financial model to analyze risks relating to Naftogaz that had been developed on the October 2018 mission. Despite updating the assumptions, the modelling still shows that the anticipated loss of transit gas revenue will have a significant negative impact on the Ukraine budget from January 2020. Appropriate mitigating action could ameliorate this negative impact, but there will still be a significant reduction in the inflows to the budget from Naftogaz. The next steps recommended by the mission include that Naftogaz, Ukrainian Railways and Energoatom models should be discussed with the State-owned Enterprises (SOE) and refined and that coverage should be expanded to include other major SOEs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Energoatom; Naftogaz; result; cash deficit; cost; Energoatom model; budget declaration; financing cost; maintenance result; MoF power; results in breakdown; Fiscal risks; Budget planning and preparation; Tariffs; Capital spending; Financial statements
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2016 Article IV Consultation and third review under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Non-Observance of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation shows that following a severe crisis in 2014–15, the economy of Ukraine is growing again. The flexible exchange rate and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. The current account deficit fell sharply, from more than 9 percent of GDP in 2013 to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2016. The overall fiscal deficit declined to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2016. Growth will remain at 2 percent in 2017 due to the impact of the blockade in the eastern part of Ukraine, but is expected to reach 3 percent in 2018 as the economy adjusts and about 3.5–4.0 percent over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; monetary policy; Ukraine; exchange rate; IMF composite index; IMF staff estimate; disbursement of SDR; NBU's independence; NBU profit transfer; Pension spending; Tariffs; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Second Review Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review. The economy of Ukraine has stabilized and is showing signs of a gradual recovery. Following a severe economic crisis, activity is picking up, inflation has receded quickly, and confidence is improving. International reserves have doubled to more than US$14 billion. Continued policy implementation is needed to achieve program objectives, given the still significant challenges lying ahead. The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review, and the authorities’ requests for waivers of the missed PCs, rephasing of access, and financing assurances review.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; post evaluation of the Stand-By Arrangement; government; disbursement of SDR; reducing inflation; Executive Board's discussion; NBU law; Tariffs; Corruption; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Stand-By Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2014 Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) program. The SBA program faced substantial geopolitical risks from the outset, but rightly focused on immediate and medium-term objectives. Important steps were taken under the program. The authorities made effective strides early on, including in longstanding difficult areas, such as raising energy tariffs and largely maintaining a flexible exchange rate, albeit with occasional sizeable interventions. Banking sector diagnostics were conducted for the largest banks and a large number of them were resolved in an orderly manner. Naftogaz restructuring also began under the SBA, as did anticorruption and governance reform.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; post evaluation of the Stand-By Arrangement; disbursement of SDR; reducing inflation; Executive Board's discussion; reform agenda; Tariffs; Exchange rates; Capital outflows; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2010 Stand-By Arrangement. For the most part, the 2010 program was appropriately designed given the ambitious agenda it had set out to accomplish. The macroeconomic strategy and program design correctly addressed the most important vulnerabilities—Ukraine’s large fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficits, its lack of resilience to external shocks, and lingering weaknesses in the financial sector. Although the program’s long duration was appropriate given its focus on medium-term issues, hindsight would suggest that a shorter program would have been preferable given the country’s past program performance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; deficit monetization; government; IMF staff estimate; increase exchange rate flexibility; post evaluation report; deficit target; monetary policy; banking system; Tariffs; Government debt management; Pension reform; Tax refunds; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Request for A Stand-By Arrangement
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Request for a Stand-by Arrangement. Ukraine’s economy had been in recession since mid-2012. Inconsistent macroeconomic policies pursued in 2012–2013 aggravated deep-seated vulnerabilities and eventually generated a balance-of-payment crisis. Key objectives of the authorities’ program are to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen economic governance and transparency, and lay the foundation for robust and balanced economic growth. To achieve these objectives, the government will implement immediate measures aimed at securing stability, combined with deeper reforms to achieve and sustain external sustainability, ensure financial stability, restore sound public finances, rationalize the energy sector, and improve the business environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; press statement; deposit dynamics; Ukraine; household deposit withdrawal; fund; staff appraisal; deposits rising; Exchange rates; Debt service; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Ukraine Gas Pricing Policy: Distributional Consequences of Tariff Increases
Ms. Pritha Mitra
and
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
Ukraine’s gas pricing policy subsidizes gas and heating for all households. As the cost of imported gas rises, this policy increasingly weighs on government finances, sustains energy over-consumption, dampens investment in delivery systems, and undermines incentives for domestic production. However, gas price hikes have been deferred to the medium-term as they are politically unpopular. Through estimation of household demand functions by income quintiles to evaluate the distributional consequences of tarrif reform, this paper finds that tariff reforms combined with targeted social support can address the economic inefficiencies of the current pricing policy without large welfare costs to the lower income segments of the population.
Keywords:
WP; price; elasticity; subsidies; government expenditure and related policies; welfare; price elasticity; interaction elasticity; interaction term; heating tariff; tariff increase; Income; Tariffs; Consumption; Price elasticity; Europe