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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: First Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Inflation Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Moldova’s economy is projected to stagnate in 2022 amid spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine continues to weigh heavily on Moldova, although some initial pressures have subsided. Bank deposit net withdrawals came to an end and are now steadily being replenished. The leu depreciated by about 8 percent so far while pressures on foreign reserves have eased. About 550,000 refugees fleeing the war (representing more than 20 percent of the Moldovan population) have transited through Moldova, with about a fifth remaining in the country. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
General government budget; Policy discussion; program implementation; policy effectiveness; inflation consultation clause; governance reform; Inflation; Energy prices; Budget planning and preparation; Import prices; Credit; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Network Effects of International Shocks and Spillovers
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
and
Andrei Leonidov
This paper proposes a method for assessing international spillovers from nominal demand shocks. It quantifies the impact of a shock in one country on all other countries. The paper concludes that the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. Most developed countries pass-through shocks, whereas low-income countries and oil exporters tend to block shock spillovers. The method is used to study demand shocks originating from a large and medium country, China and Ukraine respectively.
Keywords:
WP; demand shock; epicenter country; import shock; shocks; spillover; trade; network; shock spillover; export-import matrix; export shock; Imports; Export earnings; Exports; Spillovers; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005: Policy Implications for the Western Balkans and Ukraine
Mr. Zhaogang Qiao
and
Mr. Johannes Herderschee
The paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of the European trade agreements on trade flows. It applies both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results are useful to policymakers because new intra-European trade agreements are being negotiated. In the absence of a further expansion of the European Union, estimates of alternative policies may help to clarify the policy debate. The paper also illustrates that the performance of individual countries under the trade agreements can be explained in terms of their macroeconomic environment. The conclusions are likely to be relevant to the western Balkan countries and Ukraine.
Keywords:
WP; trade agreement; country; EU export; trade diversion
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyses the impact that rising energy import prices might have on growth and inflation in Ukraine. The paper examines how rising gas prices might elevate macrofiscal risks in Ukraine’s state enterprise sector. It assesses Ukraine’s equilibrium exchange rate mainly based on the macroeconomic balance approach, and provides an account of the monetary framework debate. The paper also summarizes the current framework’s achievements and shortcomings, and looks at traditional criteria for determining whether a peg or float fits Ukraine’s economic characteristics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; foreign currency; exchange rate; bank; liquidity risk; price shock; transmission mechanism; credit risk; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Fuel prices; Energy prices; Dollarization; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Western Europe; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2006 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ukraine’s fiscal policy in 2005–06 reshuffled resources from higher saving businesses to lower saving households, touching off a consumption boom, which has been reinforced by rapid credit expansion. In 2005, this boom helped to offset the drag on the economy from marked real currency appreciation, weaker steel exports owing to intensified third-country competition, higher business-tax collections, and post-Orange-Revolution reforms, which clamped down on tax loopholes, smuggling, and corruption. The authorities have proven adept at hitting low fiscal deficit targets.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; lending; pension increase; December; staff concern; information; staff appraisal; U.S. dollar; energy-price pass-through; Inflation; Energy prices; Import prices; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper investigates the economic importance of institutions in Ukraine, and attempts to quantify the potential benefits of market-friendly structural reforms. The paper reviews some of the key findings of the development-accounting literature, which has tried to explain the significant differences in income that persist across countries. It introduces the stochastic-frontier approach, outlining its key assumptions and strengths, and results obtained with the stochastic-frontier model. The implications of the results for the specific case of Ukraine are discussed. The paper also analyzes external risks and opportunities for Ukraine.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; inflation; inflation persistence; Ukraine; replacement rate; CPI index; CPI inflation; contribution rate; Pension spending; Metal prices; Pensions; Import prices; Global; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level plateau since then owing to regional and country-specific factors. These include slower progress in transition, geographic aspects, restrictions on trade, governance and corruption problems, weak infrastructure, lack of regional cooperation, and political conflicts. Regression results show that trade openness of the CIS countries would likely increase substantially if market-oriented reforms were pursued more vigorously.
Keywords:
WP; trade; CIS country; CIS trade; Commonwealth of Independent States; CIS; CIS economy; IMF trade restrictiveness index; CIS share; CIS metal export; Exports; Direction of trade; Imports; Trade balance; Trade policy; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Ukraine during the 1990s. In 1996, Ukraine achieved a measure of macroeconomic stability for the first time since gaining independence. Inflation, which at times had bordered on hyperinflation, fell to an average monthly rate of 2.8 percent and, except in months with major administered price changes, remained low throughout the year. This trend continued in 1997, when inflation averaged less than 1 percent a month during the first half of the year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; broad money; first quarter; real GDP; Currencies; Exports; Imports; Arrears; Pension spending; Western Europe
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Ukraine's Gas Arrears: Issues and Recommendations
Amer Bisat
This paper discusses issues related to the gas arrears ‘crisis’ in Ukraine. It concludes that the problem, which can be traced to policy distortions, can be contained through an acceleration of structural reforms. The paper examines the nature of the contractual relations between Ukraine and its foreign suppliers; the role of the de facto government guarantee for gas import payments; the process of imposing financial discipline on non-payers; the nature of gas-related subsidy schemes; and the methods used in calculating domestic energy prices. An Appendix derives lessons from the Estonian case--an economy which, despite relatively similar initial conditions, avoided the emergence of energy payment difficulties. This is a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s) and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Keywords:
PDP; enterprise; subsidy; supplier; gas arrears; enterprise restructuring; gas import payment; restructuring program; arrears accumulation; gas import company; Arrears; Tariffs; Imports; Import payments; Social assistance spending; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Analysis of Value-Added Taxes in Russia and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Emil M Sunley
and
Ms. Victoria J Perry
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Russia and the other countries which were members of the USSR have adopted value-added taxes. The value-added tax now provides a very significant portion of total tax revenue in all of these countries. Ideally, the value-added tax will serve as a relatively efficient, neutral, revenue source at the national level. The Russian value-added tax, however, contains a number of unique provisions, reflected in the laws of many of the other transition countries, which cause it to fall short of this standard. These countries also must decide how their value-added taxes are to apply to trade among themselves. This paper describes several of the provisions unique to the Russian value-added tax and analyzes their probable effects. It then discusses the development of arrangements which have evolved to date with respect to applying the value-added tax to trade among the transition countries, and suggests possible answers to the vexing questions raised by this issue.
Keywords:
WP; transition country; VAT liability; cash method; importing country; revenue performance; tax revenue; VAT law; sample VAT return; Value-added tax; Credit; Exports; Imports; Sales tax; Baltics; Western Europe