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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?
Gita Gopinath
,
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
,
Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Petia Topalova
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
Keywords:
Trade; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation; supply chain resilience; restrictive policy; nonaligned connector; years of the Cold War; surge in policy; Trade balance; Imports; Trade agreements; Trade policy; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.
Keywords:
trade policy; international trade; geo-economic fragmentation; bilateral surveillance; multilateral surveillance; trade expertise; value chain; fund Agenda; fund expertise; core trade area; addressing trade opportunity; trade diversification; trade-distortive policy; trade landscape; transparent trade policies; trade facilitation agreement; areas of fund expertise; Trade finance; Trade tensions; Trade barriers; Trade in services; Global; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Alvar Kangur
,
Tansaya Kunaratskul
,
Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
,
Michele Ruta
,
Tatjana Schulze
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Mr. Juan P Trevino
After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; globalization; global economic integration; geopolitical blocs; international monetary system; global financial safety net; multilateralism; costs of economic fragmentation; rules-based multilateral system.; IMF AREAER report; U.S. Dollar share; trade openness; trade agenda; share of Global Foreign Exchange; Capital flows; Trade barriers; Global
Cover Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation
Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation
Lessons for the IMF
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report seeks to help the IMF enhance its effectiveness by identifying major recurring issues from the IEO’s first 20 evaluations and assessing where they stand. The IMF’s core areas of responsibility are surveillance, lending, and capacity development. The aim of this report is to strengthen the follow-up process by focusing on key issues that recurred in IEO evaluations, rather than on specific recommendations on their implementation. The IEO believes that a framework of reviewing and monitoring recurring issues would be useful in establishing incentives for progress, strengthening the Board’s oversight, and providing learning opportunities for the IMF.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; evaluation; IEO recommendation; IEO evaluation; IEO report; IMF staff judge; evaluation team; Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Trade policy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Internal audit; Corporate governance; Crisis management
Cover IMF Working Papers
Of Openess and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
This paper analyzes developments in the structure of trade in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) during the transition decade, and finds that it changed less than in other transition economies. Trade openness of the CIS increased between 1993 and 1997, but has fallen to a lower-level plateau since then owing to regional and country-specific factors. These include slower progress in transition, geographic aspects, restrictions on trade, governance and corruption problems, weak infrastructure, lack of regional cooperation, and political conflicts. Regression results show that trade openness of the CIS countries would likely increase substantially if market-oriented reforms were pursued more vigorously.
Keywords:
WP; trade; CIS country; CIS trade; Commonwealth of Independent States; CIS; CIS economy; IMF trade restrictiveness index; CIS share; CIS metal export; Exports; Direction of trade; Imports; Trade balance; Trade policy; Central Asia
Cover A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This guide is designed to facilitate classroom use of The Fabric of Reform, a 30-minute educational video created by the International Monetary Fund. It is intended for use with students in economics and international relations courses at the secondary and postsecondary levels.

Keywords:
MTU; student; access report; CFA franc; country profile; country; IMF's contribution; rates to the rate; free market work; countries fare; Mali's government; classroom use; market forces; Agricultural commodities; Monetary unions; Currencies; Natural resources; Africa; West Africa; Global; Trade policy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Integration and Baltic Trade and Investment Performance
Mr. Robert L. Sharer
This paper analyzes the role of regional arrangements in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in the Baltics. While progress with transition is a key determinant of trade and FDI performance, regional arrangements with Western Europe have helped develop trade and transfer of technology, but have not yet led to export-related foreign direct investment toward the European Union. The main reasons for this are policy uncertainties, need for more progress with transition, and restrictions in the trade agreements, especially on the European Union side. Intra-Baltic integration has not yet led to substantial trade and FDI growth between the Baltics.
Keywords:
WP; free trade; EU membership; protection level; EU market; EU-EFTA-Baltic-Bulgaria-Romania cumulation; EU agreement; EU trade; protectionist trade regime; EU concession; Baltic trade; trade openness; EU export; hub-and-spoke system; Exports; Trade liberalization; Foreign direct investment; Trade policy; Trade barriers; Baltics; Europe; Western Europe
Cover The Russian Federation in Transition
The Russian Federation in Transition
External Developments
Ms. Benedicte Vibe Christensen

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of three "shocks" - the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., domestic economic reform, and changing relations with other countries- on Russia's balance of payments position. The importance of consistent economic reform and a liberal trade regime is stressed, together with the role of financial assistance.

Keywords:
OP; government; agreement; state; price; Group of Seven country; IMF staff estimate; U.S.S.R. share of EC potash; textile product; creditor government; appendix I. trade liberalization; Exports; Imports; Terms of trade; Eastern Europe; Global; services transaction; foreign direct investment flow; Russia's balance of payments; balance of payments information; Russia's balance of payments difficulties; balance of payments position; disintegration of the U.S.S.R.; Trade barriers; Caribbean