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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • International trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
Ibrahim Nana
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Keywords:
Trade; Uncertainty; Geopolitics; Global Value Chains; Gravity model; trade decrease; sectoral trade; bilateral trade; importing country; resource endowment; Plurilateral trade; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; COVID-19; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.
Keywords:
trade policy; international trade; geo-economic fragmentation; bilateral surveillance; multilateral surveillance; trade expertise; value chain; fund Agenda; fund expertise; core trade area; addressing trade opportunity; trade diversification; trade-distortive policy; trade landscape; transparent trade policies; trade facilitation agreement; areas of fund expertise; Trade finance; Trade tensions; Trade barriers; Trade in services; Global; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations one year after the historic fourth general allocation of SDRs. In the reporting period, SDR trading has been dominated by SDR sales due to the 2021 SDR allocation. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies. Staff has made significant progress in further strengthening the SDR trading market. Since the SDR allocation, eight new VTA members have been welcomed to the SDR trading market and many existing VTA members provided additional operational flexibilities. Discussions with a number of potential new entrants continue in the broader context of SDR channeling, which encourages contributors to have VTAs.
Keywords:
SDR sale; SDR trading market; SDR trading capacity; SDR amount; SDR market; VTA member; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Intra-European Trade Agreements, 1990-2005: Policy Implications for the Western Balkans and Ukraine
Mr. Zhaogang Qiao
and
Mr. Johannes Herderschee
The paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of the European trade agreements on trade flows. It applies both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques. The results are useful to policymakers because new intra-European trade agreements are being negotiated. In the absence of a further expansion of the European Union, estimates of alternative policies may help to clarify the policy debate. The paper also illustrates that the performance of individual countries under the trade agreements can be explained in terms of their macroeconomic environment. The conclusions are likely to be relevant to the western Balkan countries and Ukraine.
Keywords:
WP; trade agreement; country; EU export; trade diversion