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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets
Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits to either country.
Keywords:
Energy supply; energy security; trade disruptions; greenhouse gas emissions; computable general equilibrium; baseline share; w.r.t. baseline price; w.r.t baseline price; oil import; Natural gas sector; Imports; Exports; Electricity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Hungary
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation with Hungary highlights that while the economy was recovering from the coronavirus disease-crisis, a succession of shocks and loose fiscal policy intensified inflation and fueled a large external deficit. Appropriately, the central bank significantly tightened monetary policy and the government plans a large fiscal adjustment. However, regulatory measures undermine the tighter fiscal and monetary policy mix. Growth is expected to slow sharply with still-elevated inflation and sizable risks can worsen the outlook. Consistent overall policy tightening is needed to address imbalances amid large uncertainty. Shocks that significantly weaken growth and inflation may prompt a more gradual tightening, while shocks that intensify inflation would require a faster tightening. Strengthening energy security will help meet climate objectives and reduce vulnerabilities to supply shocks. Strengthening governance is needed to improve the business environment and the efficiency of spending.
Keywords:
Policy recommendation; monetary policy mix; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; monetary policy transmission; inflation expectation; money market rate; reducing inflation; EU funds; Policy discussion; Inflation; Energy prices; Current account deficits; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area
Thomas McGregor
and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven sub-components of core inflation, and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. The disaggregated structure of the model improves on the forecasting performance of a standard one-equation Phillips curve, especially since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early-2020 and the following energy shocks. We find a key role for international energy and food prices in explaining the recent surge in inflation – as of Q2 2022, they account for 75 percent of the increase in headline inflation and 30 percent of the increase in core. Economic slack and inflation expectations explain another 10 percent of headline and 20 percent of core inflation. Around one-third of the increase in core inflation remains unexplained by the model. Out of sample projections show high uncertainty around the inflation path while suggesting that inflation pressures are unlikely to dissipate quickly. We argue that the bottom-up approach offers a useful complement to the forecaster’s toolbox–especially in the current environment of sectoral shocks - by improving forecast accuracy, shedding additional light on the drivers of inflation, and providing a framework in which to apply ex-post judgement in a structured way.
Keywords:
Euro area; Inflation; Phillips curve; inflation expectation; inflation pressure; augmented Phillips curves; forecast accuracy; drivers of inflation; Natural gas sector; Fuel prices; Oil prices; Food prices; Global
Cover Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World
Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

Abstract

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

Keywords:
BOOK; price; metal; demand; oil price; natural gas; food security; commodities supercycle; metal market; food price; Natural gas sector; Oil; Metals; Non-renewable resources; Oil prices; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; North America; price differential; mining research; energy market; Caribbean; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; oil revenue; net export; enrollment ratio; time deposit; net enrollment ratio; net credit; net tax; credit to government; national bank of Kazakhstan; Nontax revenue; Oil; Agricultural commodities; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bottom; oil revenue; national bank of Kazakhstan; extraction industry; net lending; time deposit; production value; Agricultural commodities; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics