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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Alexandre Sollaci
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; sanctions; spillovers; prices; geoeconomic fragmentation; trade disruption; price change; commodity producer; net-commodity-importing country; trade fragmentation; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Agricultural commodities; Inflation; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Food Supply Matters: Nigeria
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
and
Ms. Rima A Turk
Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; agriculture; yields; inputs; inflation support food security; food price inflation; vegetable oil; inflation differential; food inflation; food category; food import ratio; food consumption; food availability; food import reliance; Food security; Food prices; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Food imports; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Proposal for a Food Shock Window Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated global economic pressures, including through a food shock. The war and food-related spillovers—higher import prices for food and fertilizer and disruptions in supply lines for food importers, and a loss of revenue for some food exporters—add to urgent balance-of-payments (BOP) needs of many Fund members. They have also exacerbated acute food insecurity, now affecting 345 million people. While the best response to address BOP pressures would generally involve an Upper Credit Tranche-quality program, such a program may not be feasible in some cases or necessary in others. This paper proposes a time-bound food shock window under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to provide support to members in such situations. The new window would be temporary and provide low-access emergency financing that increases the amounts currently available under the RFI/RCF. Members would need to demonstrate urgent BOP needs and meet a set of qualification criteria related to the global food shock. The window would be available for 12 months from the date of Board approval of the window. Countries requesting financing under the window would also need to meet the standard qualification criteria under the RFI/RCF.
Keywords:
emergency financing instrument; UCT-quality program; emergency financing Access; SMP policy; Food shock window; urgent balance of payments; Emergency assistance; Balance of payments need; Food security; Agricultural commodities; Credit; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Climate Change and Chronic Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Diogo Miguel Salgado Baptista
,
Mrs. Mai Farid
,
Dominique Fayad
,
Laurent Kemoe
,
Loic S Lanci
,
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Tara S Muehlschlegel
,
Cedric Okou
,
John A Spray
,
Kevin Tuitoek
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents some key considerations and examples of tradeoffs and complementarities across policies to address food insecurity. Key findings include (1) Fiscal policies focused on social assistance and efficient public infrastructure investment can improve poorer households’ access to affordable food, facilitate expansion of climate-resilient and green agricultural production, and support quicker recovery from adverse climate events; (2) Improving access to finance is key to stepping up private investment in agricultural resilience and productivity as well as improving the earning capacity and food purchasing power of poorer rural and urban households; and (3) Greater regional trade integration, complemented with resilient transport infrastructure, enables sales of one country’s bumper harvests to its neighbors’ facing shortages. The international community can help with financial assistance—especially for the above-mentioned social assistance and key infrastructure areas—capacity development, and facilitating transfers of technology and know-how.
Keywords:
Food Insecurity; Spatial Macroeconomics; Economic Development; Agricultural Policy; policy consideration; infrastructure investment; policy mix; SSA development outcome; cash transfer; IMF Library; price effect; increase dummy; fuel price hike; Climate change; Food prices; Food security; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa; West Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; oil revenue; net export; enrollment ratio; time deposit; net enrollment ratio; net credit; net tax; credit to government; national bank of Kazakhstan; Nontax revenue; Oil; Agricultural commodities; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bottom; oil revenue; national bank of Kazakhstan; extraction industry; net lending; time deposit; production value; Agricultural commodities; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ukraine; unit price; net material product; crop production; fund staff estimate; net accumulation; private property; Chernobyl fund; period GDP; gross investment; wood production; arrears accumulation; net credit; accounts payable; Currencies; Agricultural sector; Transportation; Agroindustries; Agricultural commodities
Cover A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This guide is designed to facilitate classroom use of The Fabric of Reform, a 30-minute educational video created by the International Monetary Fund. It is intended for use with students in economics and international relations courses at the secondary and postsecondary levels.

Keywords:
MTU; student; access report; CFA franc; country profile; country; IMF's contribution; rates to the rate; free market work; countries fare; Mali's government; classroom use; market forces; Agricultural commodities; Monetary unions; Currencies; Natural resources; Africa; West Africa; Global; Trade policy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Azerbaijan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues reviews economic development in Azerbaijan during 1995–99. The Azerbaijan authorities began to implement a far-reaching economic reform program in 1995. As a result, the serious macroeconomic imbalances, which plagued the economy in the early years of the transition, were largely eliminated. Both 1997 and 1998 were characterized by financial stability and strong real growth: average consumer price inflation over this period was close to zero and real GDP growth averaged 8 percent a year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; gross domestic product; exchange rate; private sector; broad money; U.S. dollar
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Turkmenistan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Turkmenistan during 1994–98. Turkmenistan reduced gas exports and suffered a decline in real GDP of close to 40 percent during 1993–95. At the same time, it stepped up foreign borrowing and constrained imports by limiting access to foreign exchange to sustain gross international reserves at the equivalent of 6–9 months of imports. The distortions associated with the perpetuation of central controls, coupled with an accommodating monetary policy, led to financial instability, raising annual average inflation rates to close to 1,500 percent during 1993–95.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; exchange rate; commercial bank; interest rate; treasury bill; foreign currency; gas export; Exports; Agricultural commodities; Currencies; Europe; Central Asia; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific