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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 23 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Food prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
How do Economic Growth and Food Inflation Affect Food Insecurity?
Christian Bogmans
,
Andrea Pescatori
, and
Ervin Prifti
During the global recession of 2020 food insecurity increased substantially in many countries around the world. Fortunately, the surge in food insecurity quickly came to a halt as the world economy returned to its positive growth path, despite double-digit domestic food inflation in most countries. To shed light on the relative importance of income growth and food inflation in driving food insecurity, we employ a heterogeneous-agent model with income inequality, complemented by novel cross-country data for the period 2001-2021. We use external instruments (changes in commodity terms-of-trade, external economic growth, and harvest shocks) to isolate exogenous variation in domestic income growth and ood inflation. Our findings suggest that income growth is the dominant driver of annual variations in food insecurity, while food price inflation plays a somewhat smaller role, aligning with our model predictions.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; inclusive growth; food inflation; inequality; diet.; food inflation affect food insecurity; food price inflation; affect food insecurity; income growth; Food security; Income; Food prices; Inflation; Price elasticity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issue paper documents the recent episode of food inflation and food insecurity in Belize. The paper also overviews what policies were announced in Belize and the Caribbean during the recent cost-of-living crisis; and discusses the policies Belize could implement to protect its most vulnerable households from the threat of food insecurity going forward. It discusses the appropriate policies to protect vulnerable households from food price inflation going forward based on economic theory and best practices and estimates how much it would cost the government of Belize to protect the vulnerable population against a rise in food prices like the one in 2022. The authorities should evaluate the impact of the recent policy that regulates mark-ups on essential goods by wholesale and retail operators when they have sufficient data. The limits on the mark-up for 32 essential goods were introduced to limit the increase in food prices and avoid monopolistic practices.
Keywords:
food inflation; staff ream; debt target; cost of living crisis; B. food inflation; food inflation in Belize; price signals work; Food prices; Food security; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Global Shocks in CEMAC
Johanna Tiedemann
,
Olivier Bizimana
,
Lluis Dalmau
, and
Martin Ambassa
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021–23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined with the local projections method. Our results confirm the prominent role of global factors in driving inflation dynamics. Global commodity food and oil price fluctuations, and shipping costs are the main factors explaining the large variability in headline inflation. Further, we find that global price shocks have sizable and persistent effects on domestic headline inflation, with differences in the magnitude and speed of pass-through. The pass-through from commodity food price fluctuations to headline inflation is higher and more persistent than that of other global price shocks, reflecting the large share of food in the consumption baskets, which makes inflation more vulnerable to direct effects of international food shocks, but also larger second-round effects.
Keywords:
Inflation; underlying inflation; Phillips curve; commodity prices; shipping costs; CEMAC; inflation dynamics; price shock; commodity food price fluctuation; baseline result; inflation expectation; inflation development; Oil prices; Commodity price shocks; Food prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Piyaporn Chote
,
Corinne C Delechat
,
Thanaphol Kongphalee
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Pym Manopimoke
, and
Tamon Yungvichit
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; poverty; inflation dynamics; income effect; fiscal cost.; elevated inflation; inflation component; rising prices; energy price; Income; Energy prices; Consumption; Food prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Experience with The Food Shock Window Under The Rapid Financing Instrument and The Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Food Shock Window (FSW) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) was approved in September 2022 for 12 months, as a complement to the tools used by the Fund to support the broader international effort to address the global food shock. The Fund has been working closely with partners to provide a coordinated international response to the global food shock, and has contributed through policy advice, technical assistance and lending. Where needed and possible, financial support to countries affected by the global food shock has been delivered by the IMF through multi-year Fund-supported programs The FSW complemented this support in situations where these programs were not feasible or not necessary. As the global food shock and associated balance of payment pressures are expected to continue throughout 2023, the IMF extended the FSW until end-March 2024 to allow the FSW to continue serving as a contingency tool. This extension will also provide sufficient time to observe if the FSW can lapse without limiting the capacity of the Fund to support its members. To ensure adequate borrowing space under the emergency financing limits for those countries that have received support through the FSW, the IMF also extended the additional 25 percent of quota added to the Cumulative Access Limit until end-2026 for countries that have accessed the Food Shock Window through the RFI and until the completion of the 2024/25 PRGT review for those that accessed the Food Shock Window through the RCF.
Keywords:
Cumulative Access Limits; Rapid Financing Instrument; Rapid Credit Facility; Food Insecurity; FSW request; FSW financing; UCT-quality program; FSW relative; FSW experience; FSW resource; Food security; Food prices; Emergency assistance; Balance of payments need; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2023
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2023
The Big Funding Squeeze
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

A funding squeeze has hit the region hard. Persistent global inflation and tighter monetary policies have led to higher borrowing costs for sub-Saharan African countries and have placed greater pressure on exchange rates. Indeed, no country has been able to issue a Eurobond since spring 2022.The interest burden on public debt is rising, owing to a greater reliance on expensive market-based funding combined with a long-term decline in aid budgets. The lack of financing affects a region that is already struggling with elevated macroeconomic imbalances. Public debt and inflation are at levels not seen in decades, with double-digit inflation present in about half of the countries—eroding household purchasing power and striking at the most vulnerable. In this context, the economic recovery has been interrupted. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa will decline to 3.6 percent this year. Amid a global slowdown, activity is expected to decelerate for a second year in a row. Still, this headline figure masks significant variation across the region. The funding squeeze will also impact the region’s longer-term outlook. A shortage of funding may force countries to reduce resources for critical development sectors like health, education, and infrastructure, weakening the region’s growth potential.

Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; trade; debt; foreign direct investment; aid; economic growth; exchange rate; currency depreciation; foreign exchange; international reserves; inflation; public debt; trade balance; Africa; US dollar strength; climate change; green transition; foreign aid; multilateral development banks; concessional finance; funding squeeze; financing condition; exchange rate pressure; anchored inflation; inflation expectation; emergency financing facilities; stickier-than-expected inflation; sub-Saharan Africa address; financing environment; countercyclical financing; monetary policy tightening; inflation projection; Exchange rates; Climate finance; Food prices; Fiscal consolidation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Responses to High Energy and Food Prices
David Amaglobeli
,
Mengfei Gu
,
Emine Hanedar
,
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
, and
Celine Thevenot
The surge in energy and food prices, which was amplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has prompted a flurry of policy responses by countries during 2022. The aim of these policy responses was to mitigate social and economic impact of higher prices. In this paper we document announcements of policy measures based on the Database of Energy and Food Price Actions (DEFPA), which was developed based on two rounds of survey responses of IMF country teams conducted in March/April and June/July of 2022. The paper also provides discussion on policy trade-offs when considering appropriate policy responses both for countries with strong and weak social safety nets. Key policy message is that providing targeted support to households in the form of cash transfers is the most cost-effective way of alleviating the burden on vulnerable households and have to be preferred over broad-based mechanisms that prevent international prices to pass through to domestic consumers.
Keywords:
Energy prices; food Prices; cost of living; social policy; IMF country team; demand and supply response; A. pass-through; Policy measure
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Food Supply Matters: Nigeria
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
and
Ms. Rima A Turk
Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; agriculture; yields; inputs; inflation support food security; food price inflation; vegetable oil; inflation differential; food inflation; food category; food import ratio; food consumption; food availability; food import reliance; Food security; Food prices; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Food imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Chikako Baba
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Ting Lan
, and
Petia Topalova
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Keywords:
inflation; Phillips curve; slack; external price; backward-looking; inflation surge; benchmark Phillips Curve estimation; inflation model; inflation dynamics; inflation development; Energy prices; Food prices; Inflation persistence; COVID-19; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Sixth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Third Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Stand-By Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Weaker external demand, rising food and energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and the US dollar appreciation have negatively impacted the Senegalese economy. Add to that, multiple challenges facing the country, including heightened regional insecurity and growing social demands amid soaring cost of living. As a result, growth was further revised down to 4.7 percent and inflation up to 8.5 percent in 2022, while the fiscal accounts are under increasing strain. The challenging external and domestic environment will continue to weigh on the economy in the near term and risks are titled to the downside. Medium-term growth prospects appear more favorable with the temporary boost from oil and gas production set to start in late 2023.
Keywords:
Senegalese authorities; debt policy; deficit target; IMF staff calculation; transparency policy; Energy subsidies; Government debt management; Budget planning and preparation; Global