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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation. Amid high uncertainty, growth is projected to rebound, but risks are tilted to the downside. Considering the improving outlook, the IMF Staff recommends a less expansionary, neutral fiscal stance for 2024 and a tighter fiscal stance in 2025. Although Latvia has some fiscal space, structural fiscal measures are needed to provide buffers for medium to long term spending pressures. Although the financial sector has so far been resilient, continued monitoring of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and spillovers is warranted. While the current macroprudential policy stance is broadly appropriate, the recent adjustment to the borrower-based measures for energy-efficient housing loans should be reconsidered. The overall policy stance strikes the right balance between maintaining financial stability and the need to extend credit to the economy. However, borrower-based macroprudential measures should be relaxed only when their presence is overly stringent from the financial stability perspective.
Keywords:
World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission; IMF-World Bank mission; audit committee charter; executive board assessment; anti-corruption plan; Labor markets; Productivity; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the German economy has begun to recover from the energy-price shock. Gradual economic recovery is expected to continue this year. With wage growth now exceeding inflation, private consumption is expected to drive recovery during 2024. High interest rates have boosted bank profitability, but part of this increase is likely temporary. High interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in banks’ financing of commercial real estate activity. Risks to growth are broadly balanced, with both positive and negative surprises to consumer and investor sentiment possible. Inflation is expected to slowly fall to around 2 percent as lower wholesale energy prices continue to pass through supply chains and to end-users. Fiscal policy is tight, putting the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio on a downward path, although public investment is also relatively low. In order to stabilize labor supply, the authorities should make it easier for women to work full time. This means expanding access to reliable child- and eldercare services and exploring ways to reduce the effective marginal tax rate on second earners in married couples.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; supervisory authority; currency of Germany; energy-price shock; state's ability; Inflation; Labor markets; Public investment spending; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Future of PPPs in the Western Balkans
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
William Lindquist
,
Yen N Mooi
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
,
Hoda Selim
, and
Armine Khachatryan
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly an important vehicle for several Western Balkan countries to increase investment to reduce their infrastructure gaps. While there are benefits to well-designed and implemented PPPs, they also carry a potential for large fiscal risks and increased costs if not managed well. Countries with successful PPP programs typically benefit from a clear and well-designed PPP governance framework, which covers all stages of the PPP life cycle. Western Balkan countries need to address gaps in their PPP governance frameworks to fully reap the potential benefits from PPPs.
Keywords:
Infrastructure; Public-private partnerships; Western Balkans; governance framework; PPP procurement; PPP life cycle; future of PPP; PPP project; Fiscal risks; Public investment spending; PPP legislation; Risks of public-private partnership; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Bolivian Authorities
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Supported by favorable terms-of-trade, the economy has recovered more rapidly than expected and output is now nearing pre-COVID levels, although it is expected to remain below the pre-COVID trend during the next five years. The windfall from higher prices for Bolivia’s exports of food, minerals, and natural gas has bolstered private savings, some of which has been channeled to finance the budget deficit. Despite this, ongoing monetary financing, in the context of the fixed exchange regime, continues to drain international reserves. The inflation rate has been one of the lowest in the region, in large part a result of price controls and increased subsidies for food and energy.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; market exchange rate volatility; staff state; fund staff; Bolivian government; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Public investment spending; Pension spending; International reserves; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Curaçao and Sint Maarten: 2022 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten are recovering from the pandemic but facing multiple challenges, including spillovers from the war in Ukraine. Curaçao was in a protracted recession even before the pandemic due to spillovers from the Venezuelan crisis. Sint Maarten needs to fully recover not only from the pandemic, but also from the devastating 2017 hurricanes.
Keywords:
Sint Maarten monetary union; Curaçao team; Sint Maarten team; Sint Maarten well; en Sint Maarten; COVID-19; Public investment spending; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Ukraine highlights that Ukraine currently has an efficiency gap of around 32 percent, which ranks it below average amongst emerging market countries and other comparators. Persistent under-investment, the currently high stock of debt, and ongoing institutional weaknesses, coupled with effects of the conflict in the East could see this gap continuing to grow, absent concerted efforts to reverse recent trends. The report also analyses that government policy on fiscal decentralization, articulated in the government’s 2014 coalition agreement, has the potential to significantly impact on the allocation of public investment. The institutional framework is weak in all areas. It is in terms of effectiveness of the institutions that the Ukrainian public investment management system really falls short. Twelve institutions are ranked as ineffective while a further two are moderately effective, with only one institution scoring a high rank in this category. While the picture looks bleak, some recent initiatives may bring about significant improvements.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; investment; budget; country; General government investment; capital spending; local government; capital project; investment project; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Capital budget; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
Non-performing loans (NPLs) were found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation; there are also strong feedback effects from the banking system to the real economy. This suggests that the high NPLs that many CESEE countries currently face adversely affect the pace of economic recovery. The note also evaluates different policy options to achieve permanent fiscal consolidation in Hungary. A fiscal consolidation based on a reduction in government transfers can stimulate labor participation, and a resulting increase in the returns to capital can increase investment and output in the long term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment; output; bank; data quality; inertial consumption dynamics; NPLS ratio; NPL shock; asset quality; Nonperforming loans; Consumption; Fiscal consolidation; Public investment spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is examined. Real GDP growth accelerated to 5 percent in 2007 and 6 percent in the first half of 2008, from its historical average of about 3 percent. Increased investment, partly financed by FDI, is the main driver boosting domestic demand, as seen in the fast-growing import of investment and intermediate goods. Simultaneously, the current account deficit has widened substantially since 2007 and has become a major concern for macroeconomic stability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; government; current account; deficit; price; production function; replacement ratio; FYR Macedonia; government policy; growth performance; government expenditure-to-GDP ratio; government operation; deficit target; government action; expenditure-to-GDP ratio; Real exchange rates; Electricity; Potential output; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
and
Mr. Günther Taube
What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek experience; output performance; reform policy; private sector; Uzbek growth path; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Sustainability; unmeasured Uzbekistan effect; Uzbek authorities; Uzbek growth experience; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Structural reforms; Agricultural sector; Public investment spending; Baltics