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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

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Cover Policy Papers
Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement October 2023
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has shown resilience, but the recovery is slow and uneven. Risks have moderated in recent months but remain tilted to the downside. Headline inflation is about half of its 2022 peak but the decline in core inflation is more gradual. Growth momentum across most low-income and emerging market countries is weakening and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is becoming increasingly challenging. While restoring price stability, normalizing fiscal policy, and protecting the vulnerable remain near-term policy priorities, policymakers should actively pursue policies that can support sustained growth—including macro-structural reforms and green transition. Multilateral cooperation is critical to address the challenges that hold back global recovery and shadow future prosperity, including risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation.
Keywords:
growth; multilateral cooperation; emerging market country; policy priority; growth momentum; decline in core inflation; inflation expectation; Inflation; Price stabilization; Climate change; Monetary tightening; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
France: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that France saw a robust recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 shock but is now facing the repercussions of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The large fiscal response to the energy price shock has cushioned the economic impact but has been costly, poorly targeted, and distortionary. IMF estimates growth at 2.6 percent in 2022 and 0.7 percent in 2023, with inflation averaging 5.9 and 5 percent, respectively. Near-term risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, dominated by possible further impacts of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Under current policies, the fiscal deficit is expected to narrow as support is phased out and the economy recovers but will remain elevated at 4 percent of gross domestic product in the medium term. Labor-market policies should ensure smooth transition of apprentices into permanent work while addressing skills shortages and inferior educational outcomes. Continuing structural reforms, particularly in pensions, unemployment, and product and services markets will be essential for future fiscal health as well as better competitiveness and growth. The energy crisis presents an opportunity to accelerate the green transition through energy conservation and a faster switch to renewable energy.
Keywords:
HICP inflation; better-than-expected state revenue performance; service price; pension reform plan; government's proposal; Energy prices; Inflation; Price controls; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Explains Persistent Inflation Differentials Across Transition Economies?
Mr. Mark J Flanagan
and
Mr. Felix Hammermann
Panel estimates based on 19 transition economies suggests that some central banks may aim at comparatively high inflation rates mainly to make up for, and to perhaps exploit, lagging internal and external liberalization in their economies. Out-of-sample forecasts, based on expected developments in the underlying structure of these economies, and assuming no changes in institutions, suggest that incentives may be diminishing, but not to the point where inflation levels below 5 percent could credibly be announced as targets. Greater economic liberalization would help reduce incentives for higher inflation, and enhancements to central bank independence could help shield these central banks from pressures.
Keywords:
WP; Output-inflation trade-off; inflation differential; CIS-West inflation; inflation gap; inflation; transition economies; panel data; inflation choice; inflation impulse; inflation outcome; price liberalization; Terms of trade; Price controls; Inflation targeting; Fiscal sustainability; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Western Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?
Mr. Ernesto Hernández-Catá
The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.
Keywords:
WP; fixed capital; GDP deflator; balance of payments; liberalization measure; output index; Cuba; growth; productivity; liberalization; transition; growth performance; price liberalization; demand shock; Total factor productivity; Employment; Labor force; Price controls; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shortages Under Free Prices: The Case of Ukraine in 1992
Mr. Timothy D. Lane
,
Mr. Rolando Ossowski
, and
Mr. Alexander Sundakov
This paper examines the coexistence of free prices and shortages for a range of consumer goods in Ukraine during 1992. Enterprises making consumer goods were substantially free to set market-clearing prices. Yet, Ukraine’s official consumer market experienced continued shortages, while the same goods traded at higher prices in parallel markets. The paper advances a model of enterprise behavior in an environment of central allocation of inputs at preferential prices. We show that central allocation of key inputs according to perceived “need” creates incentives for excess demand to be perpetuated despite formal price liberalization. The analysis brings forth the importance of abolishing allocation mechanisms for price liberalization to bring its full efficiency effects.
Keywords:
WP; demand price; excess demand; circumstances enterprise; profit-maximizing firm; enterprise decision-making autonomy; profit maximization; input cost; enterprise insider; representative firm; consumer goods; free market; Price controls; Inflation