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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Residential Property Price Index Mission (April 8–12, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from April 8–12, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) with a methodological review of their House Price Index (HPI). The mission assessed the existing data and methodology used for the compilation of the HPI and made recommendations for improvements as required, in line with international statistical standards. The mission completed the following tasks: (i) undertake a review of the listings data collected by the SSSU and the data preparation being applied, (ii) assess the stratification and hedonic methods used for the HPI, (iii) review the weights and aggregation procedures used to compile the national index, (iv) provide guidance on the dissemination of the HPI, and (v) provide practical training to staff in the SSSU.
Keywords:
RPPI; Residential Property Price Index (RPPI); property prices; real estate prices; macroeconomic statistics; macroprudential policy; financial sector risks.; IMF executive directors; World Bank staff; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; listings data; weight information; Price indexes; Data collection; Land prices; House price indexes; Export fluctuations
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
After a solid recovery from the pandemic, Romania is now, like other EU countries, facing strong headwinds related to the war in Ukraine. Output reached pre-crisis levels in H1 2021 and growth in Q1 2022 was strong. But inflation has risen rapidly, and the external and fiscal positions are weak. The authorities are implementing a support package of energy price caps and subsidies for vulnerable groups.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; EU membership; inflation outlook; EU accession; EU funds; cap scheme; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Energy prices; Consumer price indexes; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Romain Lafarguette
, and
Kubi Johnson
This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.
Keywords:
Emerging markets; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips Curve; monetary policy; central bank communication; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; inflation expectation; inflation risk; self-reinforcing inflation dynamics; baseline inflation forecast; fan chart; Commodity prices; Output gap; Exchange rates; Consumer price indexes; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: 2022 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; and Staff Report for Bulgaria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy showed resilience through the pandemic, but the war in Ukraine has clouded the outlook, heightened uncertainty, and increased downside risks. With policy support, growth rebounded in 2021 despite the lingering COVID-19 crisis and protracted political uncertainty that hampered investment. Inflation accelerated significantly, pushed by global factors and strong domestic consumption. GDP growth is projected to slow below 3 percent and average inflation to exceed 12 percent in 2022. In this context, policies must navigate difficult trade-offs as they need to support activity, meet needs from the war, and contain inflation, while raising living standards, reducing inequalities, and supporting the green transition.
Keywords:
excise rate cut; budget composition; CPI series; General government operation; potential GDP; pension calculation; Inflation; Income; Consumer price indexes; Imports; COVID-19; Global; Europe; Southern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Index Capacity Development Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during June 18–22, 2018 to support the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) in improving the residential property price indexes (RPPI) for Ukraine. This was the second of a series of SECO2 RPPI-funded TA missions to take place until mid-2019 that will assist in building staff capacity for further development of the RPPI. RPPIs have been identified as critical ingredients for financial stability policy analysis. The indexes are used by policy makers as an input into design of macroprudential policies, that is, those policies aim to reduce systemic risks arising from “excessive” financial procyclicality (such as asset bubbles). RPPIs are also used by policy makers to inform monetary policy and inflation targeting.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; data; Ukraine; primary market; price; index level; training seminar; hedonic RPPI compilation; listings data; weights data; real estate; Land prices; Price indexes
Cover IMF Working Papers
Food Prices and Political Instability
Mr. Rabah Arezki
and
Markus Bruckner
We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.
Keywords:
WP; food price; price index; country
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes — Data Module; Response by the Authorities; and Detailed Assessments Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework
International Monetary Fund
The data dissemination module of the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an in-depth review of Ukraine’s statistical system. The report provides an assessment of Ukraine’s data dissemination practices in relation to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), and the quality of the data disseminated using the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department. It also assesses data quality for the national accounts, consumer and producer prices, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance of payments; National bank of Ukraine; data category; NBU web-site; SDDS requirement; PPI index series; MoF responsibility; SSCU web-site; Monetary statistics; Consumer price indexes; Balance of payments statistics; Producer price indexes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: The Case of Ukraine
Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik
This paper examines determinants of inflation in Ukraine during 1993-2002 in a cointegrating framework. Two basic theoretical models-a markup and a money market model-are tested. While broad money is cointegrated with the CPI for the whole sample and for early subsamples, the cointegration ceases to be statistically significant between 1996-2002, in part because of strong remonetization. The mark-up model offers a more consistent and well-fitting overall framework for 1996-2002 data, pointing inter alia to a greater role of administered prices in the CPI within a fairly mainstream inflation process. The "long-term" monetary transmission mechanism operates through the exchange rate and wages, but broad money clearly enters short-term inflation determinants. Prudent macroeconomic policies, grain harvests, and administrative decisions explain the sharp decline of inflation over 2000-2002.
Keywords:
WP; money demand; broad money; output gap; services price; Inflation; transition; Ukraine; cointegration; stabilization effort; inflation inertia term; exante inflation projection; food price deflation; inflation process; inflation equation; inflation development; world inflation; transition inflation study; price determination; single-equation model; Exchange rates; Consumer price indexes; Monetary base; Demand for money; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2002 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic situation in Ukraine has continued to improve in 2001. Real GDP growth is estimated to have increased from almost 6 percent in 2000 to 9 percent in 2001, mainly on account of double-digit growth of industrial output and a good grain harvest, resulting from favorable weather conditions and a lessening of government controls in agriculture. Fiscal policy through end-September 2001 was broadly on track, although indicators of revenue were affected by the accumulation of arrears on value-added tax refunds.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; cash collection rate; rate; inflation outturn; reserve requirements ratio; collection; coalition of party; VAT refund arrears; majority coalition; Arrears; Privatization; Monetary base; Western Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Europe; Africa