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Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Fedor Miryugin
This paper investigates the impact of fiscal shocks on inflation, using a large panel of 139 countries over the period 1970–2021. First, both headline and core measures of inflation increase in response to expansionary shifts in the fiscal policy stance. Second, we split the sample and observe an intriguing pattern that fiscal policy shocks are primarily significant in developing countries. Third, the inflationary impact of fiscal policy shocks is dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions, as well as monetary policy type, exchange rate regimes and fiscal rules, at the time of the shock. We confirm these results by using the narrative approach and forecast errors, as well as cyclically- adjusted data on government revenues and non-interest expenditures, to identify exogenous changes in fiscal policy. The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide greater resilience to inflationary shocks.
Laura Doherty
and
Amanda Sayegh
Spending reviews refer to the process of conducting in-depth assessments of existing public expenditure in order to identify opportunities to reduce or redirect spending from low-priority, inefficient, or ineffective spending. They offer a systemic approach to ensuring that spending is aligned with the government’s policy priorities, is effective in achieving its intended objectives and is deployed efficiently. This How to Note outlines the various objectives of spending reviews and provides guidance on designing a spending review process, including the organizational architecture and roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders. It also discusses the various stages of con¬ducting spending reviews and mechanisms for integrat¬ing their outcomes into the budget process. This note draws on lessons and experiences from countries that have established spending reviews, while recognizing that this is an emerging area for further reform.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report has been compiled against a backdrop of political uncertainty and heightened security concerns. Public financial management (PFM) reforms may not be to the forefront of government priorities at present but severe budgetary pressures need to be addressed and measures adopted to help implement sustainable fiscal policy. The report focuses on immediate PFM reforms needs that help alleviate immediate budget pressures, and also identifies medium-term reforms to address long-standing weaknesses in PFM systems.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report has been compiled against a backdrop of political uncertainty and heightened security concerns. Public financial management (PFM) reforms may not be to the forefront of government priorities at present but severe budgetary pressures need to be addressed and measures adopted to help implement sustainable fiscal policy. The report focuses on immediate PFM reforms needs that help alleviate immediate budget pressures, and also identifies medium-term reforms to address long-standing weaknesses in PFM systems.
Ms. Elva Bova
,
Marta Ruiz-Arranz
,
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
, and
H. Elif Ture
We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP but costs can be as high as 40 percent for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times. Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks so that they are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency for Ukraine, and provides an assessment of fiscal transparency practices in Ukraine against the requirements of the IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency. It reviews the description of practice, prepared by the IMF staff on the basis of discussions with the authorities and their responses to the fiscal transparency questionnaire, and provides a commentary from IMF staff.
Mr. Henri Lorie
Building on the substantial progress made in establishing fiscal systems consistent with market economies, the paper identifies priorities for further fiscal structural reforms among the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. Activities of extra budgetary accounts and quasi-fiscal activities need to be brought into the budget framework. Although there is room for improvements, the CIS countries now have, broadly, levels of tax revenues and expenditures not out of line with the international norm, taking into account income levels. The main challenges they face are to further increase the market friendliness of taxation and to implement an efficiency-improving structural reform of the expenditure system while strengthening control and accountability.
Mr. Jack Diamond
and
Mr. Barry H Potter

Abstract

This paper reviews lessons learned for future technical assistance work in the hope that they will highlight the problems faced when introducing institutional changes in transitional economies. The findings from the assessment are intended principally for those interested in the development of these transition economies, but should also be of wider relevance to those involved in delivering technical assistance on public sector institutional reform. The assessment follows the standard approach to such evaluation work. It first considers whether the basic goal of setting up treasuries has been achieved and whether the resultant reforms are relevant and sustainable. A more marked improvement in public expenditure and fiscal management was, however, also seriously hindered by the hostile macroeconomic environment of perennial crisis. The IMF is now preparing an illustrative standard for budget preparation, based on the Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency, for the countries discussed in this paper.