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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 28 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Social Security and Public Pensions x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs
Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Keywords:
IMF-supported programs; conditionality; expenditure policy; social assistance; energy subsidies; pension spending; health spending; education spending; wage bill management; policy conditionality; policy area; IMF working papers; reform plan; E. public health spending; Health care spending; Caribbean; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Icelandic economy has shown remarkable resilience and rebounded quickly from the multiple shocks in recent years. The economy is currently operating well above potential, which, together with high import and house prices, has pushed inflation significantly above target, and contributed to external imbalances. While growth is expected to moderate to 3.2 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024 on headwinds from abroad and tight macroeconomic policies, the medium-term outlook is favorable. In the near term, policy tightening coupled with headwinds from the deteriorating terms of trade will dampen domestic demand and reduce imbalances, though private consumption growth is likely to remain robust on a further drawdown of household savings and strong employment growth supported by continued immigration. Banks could face funding pressures if pension funds were to re-direct their investments from domestic to foreign markets.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; headline inflation; monetary policy horizon; deteriorating inflation outlook; cash flow; policy tightening; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Pension spending; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation and Pension Insurance Companies
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note evaluates non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) as a sector in Finland, with a special focus on the pension insurance companies (PIC). Pensions, including the PICs and fund managers, are the most significant parts of the NBFI sector, followed by insurance. Market participants value their relationship with the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority, particularly during crisis periods, but noted that extra resources and expertise would be useful for the NBFI sector. The Financial Sector Assessment Program analysis reveals a history of procyclical and herding behavior in the PIC portfolios due to the substance and perception of the solvency regulations, which drive the behavior of market participants. Discussion on further reforms to the 2017 solvency laws should focus on enhancing the long-term purpose of the PICs to generate returns—to the benefit of all social partners and Finnish citizens. Even though liquidity risks are low, a liquidity regulation should be developed so that PICs have sufficient buffers for extreme events.
Keywords:
PIC equity investment; PIC asset allocation; Pension insurance company; pension insurance company Market; FSAP's finding; finance disclosure Regulation; investment allocation; Pension spending; Solvency; Pensions; Insurance companies; Insurance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Bolivian Authorities
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Supported by favorable terms-of-trade, the economy has recovered more rapidly than expected and output is now nearing pre-COVID levels, although it is expected to remain below the pre-COVID trend during the next five years. The windfall from higher prices for Bolivia’s exports of food, minerals, and natural gas has bolstered private savings, some of which has been channeled to finance the budget deficit. Despite this, ongoing monetary financing, in the context of the fixed exchange regime, continues to drain international reserves. The inflation rate has been one of the lowest in the region, in large part a result of price controls and increased subsidies for food and energy.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; market exchange rate volatility; staff state; fund staff; Bolivian government; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Public investment spending; Pension spending; International reserves; Public sector; Global; Caribbean; South America
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Pensions; Fiscal Sustainability; Defined Benefit; Defined Contribution; pension policy; policy engagement; Policy advice; General consideration; pension provision; C. IMF-supported program; Pension spending; Pension reform; Aging; Europe; Africa; Global; Southeast Asia; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Medium-Term Budget Framework and Preparing Expenditure Baseline
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine focuses on enhancing the medium-term budget framework and preparing expenditure baselines. While the inclusion of a contingency provision in the budget is prudent, it will be important that it is well communicated and strongly defended. There is a risk that the provision will be a general policy reserve, which can undermine budget discipline and disincentivize medium-term planning. The Budget Declaration submitted to the Cabinet is a significant step forward and contains many sound elements of a medium-term budget document. The Ministry of Finance should continue to expand its content in future years to better explain the basis of fiscal plans and improve transparency. Key enhancements include providing greater explanation on the main drivers of the medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal projections, reporting on compliance with fiscal rules, and further expanding the fiscal risk statement. Credible and robust expenditure baselines will take time to develop and the Ministry of Finance will need to play a central role.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; expenditure baseline; baseline estimate; budget declaration; expenditure ceiling; government policy; MoF-Ministry of Finance; subsistence level; line department; social policy; existing government policy; budget instruction; baseline expenditure estimate; government program; Budget planning and preparation; Pension spending; Public expenditure review; Fiscal risks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Request for Stand-By Arrangement and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Ukrainian authorities have been able to restore macro-economic stability and growth following the severe economic crisis of 2014–15. However, efforts to create a more dynamic, open, and competitive economy have fallen short of expectations, and the economy still faces important challenges. Investment, particularly foreign direct investment, is held back by a difficult business environment, while large numbers of worker seek job opportunities abroad as economic growth is too low for incomes to noticeably close the gap with regional peers. Reserves have recovered, but remain relatively low, while the economy is still vulnerable to shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; heating tariff; macro-economic stability; prudent fiscal policy; regime; heating company; distribution tariff; IMF staff estimate; Currencies; Fuel prices; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2016 Article IV Consultation and third review under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Non-Observance of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation shows that following a severe crisis in 2014–15, the economy of Ukraine is growing again. The flexible exchange rate and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. The current account deficit fell sharply, from more than 9 percent of GDP in 2013 to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2016. The overall fiscal deficit declined to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2016. Growth will remain at 2 percent in 2017 due to the impact of the blockade in the eastern part of Ukraine, but is expected to reach 3 percent in 2018 as the economy adjusts and about 3.5–4.0 percent over the medium term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; monetary policy; Ukraine; exchange rate; IMF composite index; IMF staff estimate; disbursement of SDR; NBU's independence; NBU profit transfer; Pension spending; Tariffs; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the extent of corruption in Ukraine compared with other countries. The level of corruption in Ukraine is exceptionally high. This could severely undermine economic growth prospects by hindering private investment. Reducing corruption is therefore essential to speed economic convergence with the rest of Europe. Regional comparisons help identify best practices in reducing corruption. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted key measures that follow some of these best practices. The country is, however, facing several challenges, including the concentration of political and economic power in a small group of people, which may hamper effective anticorruption efforts.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ukraine; NBU Council; pension; pension benefit; pension system; ICRG corruption index; law enforcement agency; corruption effort; Pension spending; Corruption; Aging; Retirement; Inflation targeting; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland’s economy is steadily recovering from the 2012–2013 slowdown on the back of Poland’s very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6 percent in 2013 as the slowdown in core euro area countries had knock-on effects on consumer and investor confidence. However, a steady recovery is now under way. The outlook is for a continuing recovery, but external risks remain firmly on the downside. Growth is expected to reach 3.3 percent in 2014 but strong trade and financial linkages with core euro area countries make it vulnerable to growth shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; foreign currency; mortgage issuance; CPI; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; growth shock; GDP slowdown; banking system; mortgage portfolio; Pension spending; Inflation; Labor markets; Government finance statistics; Global; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe