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Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2024 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay. The Ukrainian economy continues to be resilient although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Sustained reform momentum and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms to lay the path to European Union accession. Timely and predictable external disbursements together with strong domestic resource mobilization and careful liquidity management are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs. Fiscal policies for the remainder of 2024, together with preparation for the 2025 budget, should be underpinned by steadfast revenue mobilization efforts aligned with the National Revenue Strategy.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Edda R Karlsdóttir
,
Rachid Awad
,
Ender Emre
,
Alessandro Gullo
,
Aldona Jociene
, and
Constant Verkoren
This note intends to provide advice to bank supervision and resolution authorities and policymakers seeking to deal with opaque bank ownership or significant overhang of related-party exposures.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Somalia highlights that Somalia continued to face challenges while implementing the Ninth National Development Plan in 2021 and 2022. Since 2020, the country has been struggling with the ongoing impacts of a desert locust infestation, persistent drought, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and global food and fuel price increases due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All of these shocks compounded the hardships of the population, including food insecurity. The number of people facing food insecurity due to the drought rose from 3.2 million in January 2022 to5.6 million by end-2022. Parliamentary and Presidential elections that were supposed to commence by end-2020 were not completed until in May 2022, also affecting the timing of external grant disbursements. The mid-term review report addresses concerns raised in staffs’ previous JSAN on Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point, climate change, and revenue mobilization. In terms of progress toward the HIPC Completion Point, as of September 2023 the government has completed 13 of 14 Completion Point triggers.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Côte d’Ivoire’s First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. The Ivorian economy has faced adverse spillovers from the war in Ukraine and global monetary tightening. Indirect and direct subsidies to curb price pressures, higher security spending, and worsening terms-of-trade amid robust domestic demand had led to a widening of macroeconomic imbalances in 2022. Program implementation has been strong so far with all quantitative criteria and structural benchmarks met. Côte d’Ivoire pursues its commitment for a revenue based fiscal consolidation to ensure fiscal and debt sustainability and to create fiscal space and implement its ambitious structural reforms’ agenda. The Ivorian authorities have taken measures to strengthen macroeconomic stability and reverse widening fiscal and external imbalances as the economy has been hit hard by the triple shock of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, global financial tightening, and adverse spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. The authorities have made strong progress toward their EFF commitments under challenging conditions, meeting all applicable quantitative performance criteria through end-June and indicative targets through end-September and the majority of structural benchmarks through end-October. The Ukrainian economy continues to show remarkable resilience, although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high war-related uncertainty. Continued strong ownership and reform momentum—including domestic revenue mobilization combined with timely and predictable external financing—are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, enhance institutional reforms, and support reconstruction efforts, while facilitating a green recovery on the path to EU accession. Well-managed post-war reconstruction coupled with decisive reforms in the context of the path to EU accession could stimulate the return of migrants and investment flows needed for a sustained, resilient and green recovery, bolstering Ukraine’s broader development goals.
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2023 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Request for a Four-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Burkina Faso faces protracted balance of payments problems, reflecting large development needs and the impact of shocks such as the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, adverse weather conditions, deteriorating domestic security, the food insecurity crisis, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine. These shocks have disrupted economic activity, affected livelihoods, and exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances. The ECF will help create fiscal space for priority spending, strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty, and bolster fiscal discipline, transparency and governance. It will also help close financing gaps reflecting tight financial conditions, large fiscal deficits, debt vulnerabilities, food insecurity, and fragile security conditions. For the country’s long-term development process, it remains essential to sustain structural reforms to foster economic growth and diversification as well as to reduce poverty. In this context, further efforts to improve the business environment, reinforce governance and anticorruption efforts, and address the security crisis are critical.