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JaeBin Ahn
Can a carbon tax reduce inflation volatility? Focusing on fuel excise taxes, this paper provides systematic evidence on their role as a shock absorber that helps mitigating the impact of global oil price shocks on domestic inflation. Exploiting substantial variation in fuel tax rates across 28 OECD countries over the period from 2014 to 2021, a simple idea that a per-unit, specific tax takes up a portion of the product price immune to cost shocks goes a long way toward explaining heterogeneity in the degree of oil price pass-through into domestic inflation across countries. A back-of-the-envelope calculation from the estimation results supports its quantitative significance---differences in fuel tax rates could explain about 30% of the variation in annual headline CPI inflation rates observed between the U.S. and U.K. during the 2021 inflation surge.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Upon the request of the authorities of Moldova, the Legal Department provided Technical Assistance on the establishment of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Judiciary (SAJ) in Moldova. The TA report provides analysis of the draft law on the Anti-Corruption Judicial System and other related laws, and proposes recommendations. The recommendations are informed by international standards and good practices on judicial independence and integrity, and are designed to respond to specific challenges faced by Moldova. The creation of the SAJ is an important new initiative aimed at strengthening anti-corruption efforts following the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Office (APO) in 2016. A SAJ composed of judges selected through competitive process with the participation of civil society and reputable anti-corruption experts, can significantly contribute to reducing corruption through effective adjudication of corruption cases.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Republic of Madagascar’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria. Madagascar’s growth has decelerated, and inflation remains high. Program performance remains mixed with a breach of the 2022 deficit target but progress on the structural reform agenda. The authorities have also adopted the necessary changes to the public procurement legal framework to allow for the collection and publication of ultimate beneficiary owner information and submitted a revised mining code in line with IMF staff recommendations to Parliament. The authorities are taking measures to adjust non-priority spending in the face of lower-than-expected revenue in 2023. It is proposed to relax the 2023 domestic primary deficit target to accommodate higher transfers to the electricity state-owned enterprises that reported record losses in 2022 and accumulated large arrears. Related modifications of other quantitative performance criteria are also proposed. Improvement in budget execution, transparency, and governance are critically needed to foster stronger and sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
En 2022, le PIB réel a dépassé son niveau antérieur à la pandémie. Cela étant, le repli de la demande émanant des partenaires commerciaux, les phénomènes météorologiques récents et le risque d’accentuation des tensions politiques à l’approche des élections présidentielles, prévues en novembre 2023, continueront de peser sur les perspectives en 2023. Le déficit budgétaire s’est creusé dernièrement, mais le règlement des dettes croisées avec les distributeurs de pétrole devrait améliorer le solde budgétaire en 2023 et réduire les risques budgétaires à l’avenir.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Growth was weaker than expected in 2021, reflecting primarily production disruptions in the oil sector, while inflation remained subdued. The poor 2021/2022 crop year, severe floods and Russia’s war in Ukraine have exacerbated food insecurity and increased inflation in 2022. Security and social conditions remain difficult, while the political transition has suffered significant delays.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Chad’s First and Second Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria. Chad is the first country to reach a debt treatment agreement with official and private creditors under the G20 Common Framework. This agreement provides Chad with adequate protection against downside risks while bringing the risk of debt distress to moderate by the end of the IMF-supported program. While high oil revenues have improved the government’s financial position, Chad continues to face considerable challenges, including food insecurity, oil price volatility, climate change, and security issues. Continued reform efforts are needed to enhance growth, poverty reduction, and resilience. Continued reform efforts are needed to enhance growth, poverty reduction, and resilience. Fiscal consolidation efforts remain key to Chad’s efforts to ensure debt sustainability while creating the fiscal space necessary to meet its considerable social and investment spending needs. The authorities will continue to implement measures aimed at enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, containing the wage bill, and streamlining nonpriority expenditures, such as fuel and electricity subsidies.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Congo’s First Review under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic recovery is gaining momentum but remains fragile against the backdrop of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and global consequences of the war in Ukraine. More vigorous economic activity is being held back by rising inflation, as global food and oil prices surge. Maintaining momentum in structural reforms and improving governance and transparency will be critical to attaining higher, more resilient, and inclusive growth. Key among these are reforms in public financial management, anti-corruption measures, and energy sector reforms. Fiscal policy will need to maintain the delicate balance between supporting a robust economic recovery while safeguarding debt sustainability. Part of the oil revenue windfalls should finance increased social assistance and tax deferrals initiated during the pandemic to help vulnerable businesses and households cope with high inflation. Policies under this ECF-supported program will continue to help reduce fragilities and place the Republic of Congo onto a path of higher, more resilient, and inclusive growth. It will also contribute to the regional effort to preserve external stability for the Central African Economic and Monetary Union.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Gabon’s First and Second Reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Establishment of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Program implementation has been mixed amid pandemic-related disruptions. A nascent economic recovery is underway, and the medium-term outlook is broadly positive amidst higher oil prices, but it remains subject to considerable uncertainty. The war in Ukraine will affect the economy through higher food and fuel prices. Expediting the design of well-targeted social safety nets will also be critical to providing adequate support to vulnerable households and strengthening social protection. Addressing structural reforms, including governance and corruption weaknesses is paramount to achieve strong and inclusive growth. Enhancing the banking sector and implementing an effective financial inclusion strategy, improving the business environment, and strengthening the anti-corruption framework will help address bottlenecks in the economy and promote private investment.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The SFS was established in 2014 as the successor to the Ministry of Revenue and Duties (MRD), and with three components—tax, customs and tax police. Following the turbulence arising from mid-year leadership changes in the SFS, reform momentum was invigorated and a number of important initiatives are being pursued. Since May 2015, a comprehensive reform plan has been approved; execution of the plan has commenced; many regional and local leaders were replaced; a change director was appointed; integrity programs were expanded; and a set of indicators that provide for a substantial lift in organization performance are being pursued. There are preparations for ambitious changes to organization structure which will merge the field networks across tax and customs.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Immediate revenue measures need to be balanced with some attention to more fairness in tax collection. The mission recommends to cease revenue deferral arising from trivial tax disputes by requiring at least a partial payment of disputed tax before the appeal goes forward; collect tax arrears by promoting installment arrangements that fit the crisis conditions; strengthen routine monitoring of filing and payment obligations to control tax discipline; and make mandatory that largest taxpayers deal with their tax affairs at the large taxpayer inspectorate (LTI) offices instead of local offices. Ineffective internal dispute resolution processes should be replaced with an independent and fairer administrative review.