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Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Florian Schuster
,
Marwa Alnasaa
,
Lahcen Bounader
,
Il Jung
,
Jeta Menkulasi
, and
Joana da Mota
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Mr. Anil Ari
,
Philipp Engler
,
Gloria Li
,
Manasa Patnam
, and
Ms. Laura Valderrama
The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations.
Laura Doherty
and
Amanda Sayegh
Spending reviews refer to the process of conducting in-depth assessments of existing public expenditure in order to identify opportunities to reduce or redirect spending from low-priority, inefficient, or ineffective spending. They offer a systemic approach to ensuring that spending is aligned with the government’s policy priorities, is effective in achieving its intended objectives and is deployed efficiently. This How to Note outlines the various objectives of spending reviews and provides guidance on designing a spending review process, including the organizational architecture and roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders. It also discusses the various stages of con¬ducting spending reviews and mechanisms for integrat¬ing their outcomes into the budget process. This note draws on lessons and experiences from countries that have established spending reviews, while recognizing that this is an emerging area for further reform.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report seeks to help the IMF enhance its effectiveness by identifying major recurring issues from the IEO’s first 20 evaluations and assessing where they stand. The IMF’s core areas of responsibility are surveillance, lending, and capacity development. The aim of this report is to strengthen the follow-up process by focusing on key issues that recurred in IEO evaluations, rather than on specific recommendations on their implementation. The IEO believes that a framework of reviewing and monitoring recurring issues would be useful in establishing incentives for progress, strengthening the Board’s oversight, and providing learning opportunities for the IMF.