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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights a technical note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) has a robust supervisory framework with substantive improvements since the last FSAP, but some areas could be further strengthened. Given the structural importance of delegation for Luxembourg domiciled funds, initiating an on-site inspection framework for delegates outside Luxembourg assumes importance. CSSF’s enforcement framework could be substantially improved through enhancements on four key fronts. CSSF could improve the domestic regulatory framework on areas such as winding up, valuation, and approach to indirectly regulated Alternative Investment Funds AIFs. Given Luxembourg’s position as the domicile of EU’s largest IF sector, CSSF should actively continue to promote and contribute to EU level reforms on various topics. With respect to liquidity risks, CSSF should continue to actively contribute to the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) guidance on the use of Liquidity Management Tools and to engage closely with ESMA and the EU Commission on the proposed revision of the Eligible Assets Directive.
Ekaterina Gratcheva
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Bryan Gurhy
This paper evaluates the progression of the sovereign ESG landscape since the initial comprehensive assessment of the sector in 2021 in “Demystifying Sovereign ESG” by conducting a comparative analysis of the current sovereign ESG methodologies of commercial ESG providers. The 2021 study articulated the distinct nature of the sovereign ESG segment from corporate ESG and documented fundamental shortcomings in sovereign ESG methodologies, such as the “ingrained income bias”, lack of consensus on environmental performance, and conflation of risk and sustainability objectives. While sovereign ESG methodologies have evolved since 2021, the significant correlation across providers of aggregate, S, and G scores persist. In response to market demand there has been a notable shift towards greater focus on the E pillar against growing heterogeneity on climate and environmental considerations across ESG providers. The findings underscore the disparity between perceptions and realities in implementing a sustainability strategy within the sovereign debt asset class. This necessitates a reevaluation of sovereign ESG scoring methodologies towards outcome-based metrics and urges a globally coordinated effort to establish robust sustainability measurement frameworks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the report on Belgium’s Financial Sector Assessment Program. Economic activity has slowed, core inflation remains high, and the fiscal outlook is challenging. The financial sector has remained resilient despite a series of shocks. Key financial stability risks emanate from the large, concentrated, and interconnected banking sector, private sector indebtedness, and high exposure to real estate. Bank solvency stress tests indicate that the financial sector is resilient under severe macroeconomic shocks. Although there is some heterogeneity across financial institutions, all banks would satisfy the minimum capital criteria. The authorities should enhance the National Bank of Belgium’s powers to set macroprudential policy in line with its financial stability mandate. In the near term, the extension/ setting of capital requirements should be streamlined, without the requirement for government approval. There is scope to strengthen the corporate governance framework and expectations for banks, and boost prudential supervisory staffing, especially given upcoming regulatory developments.
Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq
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Diego Alejandro Gutiérrez
The heightened volatility of commodity prices in recent years, reflecting the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, begs the longstanding question of the optimal fiscal policy response to commodity price shocks. Fiscal performance in most commodity-exporting countries is typically shaped by shifts in commodity prices and economic activity, often resulting in procyclical fiscal policy. One way to minimize the procyclicality of fiscal policy is to set up a stabilization Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). While such funds can help smooth government consumption in good and bad times, the empirical evidence of their value so far has been inconclusive. However, using an unbalanced panel dataset for 182 countries during 1980-2019, with two econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, we provide robust evidence that stabilization SWFs do indeed help smooth government consumption by reducing fiscal policy volatility associated with commodity price fluctuations.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Luxembourg has shown resilience in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine and accelerated tightening of global financial conditions, partly helped by fiscal support. Although costly, the measures have helped temporarily keeping inflation below the levels in most euro area peers and limiting the number of wage indexations. Tighter financial conditions have started to affect the financial sector, with heterogeneity across segments. The financial sector, overall, remains resilient, though there are some pockets of vulnerabilities, especially in the real estate sector and non-bank financial institutions. Growth is expected to slow to about 1 percent in 2023, before gradually recovering to its potential percent over the medium term. Headline inflation is likely to moderate further but core inflation is expected to remain persistent. The near-term outlook is highly uncertain. Risks are tilted to the downside and stem from a deeper global slowdown, a de anchoring of inflation expectations, and systemic financial instability at the global level.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note evaluates non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) as a sector in Finland, with a special focus on the pension insurance companies (PIC). Pensions, including the PICs and fund managers, are the most significant parts of the NBFI sector, followed by insurance. Market participants value their relationship with the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority, particularly during crisis periods, but noted that extra resources and expertise would be useful for the NBFI sector. The Financial Sector Assessment Program analysis reveals a history of procyclical and herding behavior in the PIC portfolios due to the substance and perception of the solvency regulations, which drive the behavior of market participants. Discussion on further reforms to the 2017 solvency laws should focus on enhancing the long-term purpose of the PICs to generate returns—to the benefit of all social partners and Finnish citizens. Even though liquidity risks are low, a liquidity regulation should be developed so that PICs have sufficient buffers for extreme events.
Mr. Domenico Fanizza
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Laura Cerami
This paper proposes a market solution to enhance the role of the financial sector in the green transition. Developing a secondary market for “brown exposures” can allow banks to dispose more quickly of stranded assets thereby increasing their capacity to finance green investments. Furthermore, newly created instruments – the brown assets backed securities (B-ABS) - can expand the diversification opportunities for specialized green investors and, thus, attract additional resources for new green investments. The experience of the secondary market for non-performing loans suggests that targeted policy and regulatory measures can simultaneously support the development of the secondary market for brown assets and green finance.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper reviews Germany’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. The financial sector has weathered the impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine relatively well so far, but risks remain elevated. The Financial System Assessment Program (FSAP) solvency stress tests show that the significant institutions and less significant institutions are overall resilient to an adverse scenario. The main risks to financial stability relate to a global resurgence of coronavirus disease 2019 with extended supply chain disruptions, a scarcity of gas and oil, and de-anchoring of inflation expectations in the United States and advanced Europe. Consistent with the authorities’ findings, the FSAP found small vulnerabilities from climate transition risks to the banking system. Macroprudential policy is being tightened but rising cyclical vulnerabilities will require additional action. Good progress had been made in strengthening the microprudential frameworks for banking and insurance since the 2016 FSAP. The system of Deposit Guarantee Schemes/Institutional Protection Schemes needs reform, which should be informed by a review of the distortions resulting from depositors’ high level of protection guaranteed under the current regime.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper highlights that the Irish financial system has grown rapidly and in complexity, especially after Brexit, and Ireland has become a European base for large financial groups. Risks to financial stability emanate from a much larger and more complex financial system, persistent legacy issues, as well as emergent ones from non-bank lending, Fintech, and climate change. Stress tests confirmed banks’ resilience to severe macrofinancial shocks, with some caveats. While broadly adequate, supervisory resources and capacity need to keep pace with a growing and more complex sector with significant cross-border linkages. Efforts are needed to further strengthen supervision of banks’ credit risk and develop capacity and skills on new areas such as climate, non-bank lending, and Fintech. Insurance oversight should prioritize intra-group complexities. Resolution and crisis management can be enhanced through greater planning and collaboration between the Central Bank and the Department of Finance to bolster the ability to deal effectively with institution failures and systemic crises.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.