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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 35 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications
Florian Schuster
,
Marwa Alnasaa
,
Lahcen Bounader
,
Il Jung
,
Jeta Menkulasi
, and
Joana da Mota
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Keywords:
Public debt; debt surges; financial crisis; stock-flow adjustment; exchange rate depreciation; fiscal expansion; debt surge; surge episode; surge attribute; post debt path; surge debt trajectory; Contingent liabilities; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Zombie Banks in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Torsten Wezel
,
Hannah Sheldon
, and
Zhengwei Fu
While deeply undercapitalized banks have been shown to misallocate credit to weak firms, the drivers of such zombie banks are less researched, particularly across countries. To furnish empirical evidence, we compile a dataset of undercapitalized banks from emerging markets and developing economies. We classify zombie banks as those not receiving remedial treatment by owners or regulators or, alternatively, remaining chronically undercapitalized. Using logit regressions, we find that country-specific factors are more influential for zombie status than bank characteristics, alhough some become significant when disaggreating by region. The paper’s overall findings imply the need for a proper regulatory framework and an effective resolution regime to deal with zombie banks more decisively.
Keywords:
Banks; Capital Requirements; Financial Crises; summary statistics; zombie bank; zombie share; zombie status; equity ratio; Banking crises; Bank resolution; Credit; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Residential Property Price Developments and (Mis)alignments in Cyprus
Robert C. M. Beyer
and
Nina Biljanovska
Residential house prices in Cyprus show no signs of overvaluation in international comparison, and various indicators confirm that prices are aligned with economic fundamentals. However, still-high household debt poses a risk. Regional disparities raise some concerns about affordability, notably in Limassol, calling for supply-side measures to increase housing supply.
Keywords:
Cyprus; Residential Housing Prices; Housing Debt; Limassol; property price development; house price trend; household debt; C. debt vulnerability; default probability; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Land prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Controls in Times of Crisis – Do They Work?
Apoorv Bhargava
,
Romain Bouis
,
Annamaria Kokenyne
,
Manuel Perez-Archila
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Countries often turn to using capital controls in crisis: some ease inflow controls while others tighten controls on outflows. A key finding is that countries with pervasive controls before the start of the crisis are shielded compared to countries with more open capital accounts, which see a significant decline in capital flows during crises. In contrast, the effectiveness of capital controls introduced during crises appears to be weak and difficult to identify. There is also some evidence that the introduction of outflow controls during crises is negatively associated with sovereign debt ratings, but that investors may actually forgive with time.
Keywords:
Capital controls; capital outflows; financial crises; inflow control; outflow controls Introduced; outflow control; controls on outflow; tightening control; Capital account; Capital flows; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Scarring: Channels and Policy Implications
Mrs. Nujin Suphaphiphat
and
Ms. Yu Shi
This paper documents the existence of medium-to-long term output losses following large crises using panel data that cover 192 countries from 1970 to 2015 and shows that the magnitudes of economic scarring depend on the nature of the shock, economic activity, and pre-crisis conditions. It also provides a thorough review of potential channels that can lead to scarring and presents novel empirical evidence on the significance of supply-side channels using cross-country sectoral-level data. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications based on the empirical findings.
Keywords:
Economic scarring; covid; pandemic; health crisis; systemic banking crisis; economic shock; hysteresis; growth; crises; scarring channels; employment; sectoral output loss; macroeconomic policy; Policy implication; panel data; impulse Response; scarring channel; Systemic crises; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
,
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
,
Aitor Erce
, and
Akira Sasahara
Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.
Keywords:
WP; net capital; growth rate; banking sector; Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Defaults; Sovereign Debt Restructurings; GDP Growth; Investment; Banking Crisis; Local Projection; debt restructuring; net capital capital inflow; default restructuring; inflows-to-GDP ratio; Debt restructuring; Capital inflows; Sudden stops; Banking crises; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Role of the Fund in Governance Issues - Review of the Guidance Note - Preliminary Considerations - Background Notes
International Monetary Fund
The Background Notes in this Supplement provide essential context and analysis needed to understand the problem of governance and corruption, its impact on the economies of Fund members, and the history and nature of Fund engagement on these issues. They also seek to support the assessment of the Fund’s overall approach to promoting good governance and reducing corruption—including through the lenses of key stakeholders—with a view to identifying strength and closing any remaining gaps.
Keywords:
PP; governance; country; corruption issue; fund; governance indicator; guidance note; treaty obligation; governance issue; Corruption; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global competitiveness; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities: A New Dataset
Ms. Elva Bova
,
Marta Ruiz-Arranz
,
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
, and
H. Elif Ture
We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6 percent of GDP but costs can be as high as 40 percent for major financial sector bailouts. Contingent liability realizations are correlated among each other and tend to occur during periods of growth reversals and crises, accentuating pressure on the budget during already difficult times. Countries with stronger institutions are able to better control and address the underlying risks so that they are less exposed to contingent liability realizations.
Keywords:
WP; CL realization; CL; Contingent Liabilities; Public Debt; Budget Deficits; Fiscal Crisis; fiscal cost; CL materialization; debt assumption; SOE support; CL shock; Financial sector; Fiscal risks; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This paper discusses St. Kitts and Nevis’ Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2011 Stand-by Arrangement. The program focused on (1) an ambitious fiscal consolidation, (2) a comprehensive debt restructuring, and (3) a further strengthening of the financial sector. These goals aimed to address the key issues behind the debt crisis, and the potential financial sector outcomes of the restructuring. The program had many successes. The debt reduction was one of the largest in recent times, the headline fiscal and current account balances improved substantially, important tax and public financial management reforms were enacted, and sovereign risk was removed from the banks. Robust growth also resumed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; debt; program risk; staff finding; federation; vulnerability of St. Kitts and Nevis; St. Kitts and Nevis to exogenous shock; minimum wage; Debt restructuring; Capital spending; Caribbean; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt-Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Keywords:
PP; fund's lending framework; lending; further consideration; annex; framework; financing commitment; Market access criterion; debt restructuring; prospects lie; Debt restructuring; Debt sustainability; Spillovers; Global