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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Globalization: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?
Gita Gopinath
,
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
,
Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Petia Topalova
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
Keywords:
Trade; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation; supply chain resilience; restrictive policy; nonaligned connector; years of the Cold War; surge in policy; Trade balance; Imports; Trade agreements; Trade policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation: What’s at Stake for the EU
Chikako Baba
,
Ting Lan
,
Ms. Aiko Mineshima
,
Florian Misch
,
Magali Pinat
,
Asghar Shahmoradi
,
Jiaxiong Yao
, and
Ms. Rachel van Elkan
Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; cross-border restrictions; trade; innovation; multinational production; energy; European Union; Single Market; EU economy; EU integration; EU foreign direct investment linkage; EU State aid; Manufacturing; Foreign direct investment; Fuel prices; Comparative advantage; Exports; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Alvar Kangur
,
Tansaya Kunaratskul
,
Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
,
Michele Ruta
,
Tatjana Schulze
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Mr. Juan P Trevino
After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; globalization; global economic integration; geopolitical blocs; international monetary system; global financial safety net; multilateralism; costs of economic fragmentation; rules-based multilateral system.; IMF AREAER report; U.S. Dollar share; trade openness; trade agenda; share of Global Foreign Exchange; Capital flows; Trade barriers; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Role of the Fund in Governance Issues - Review of the Guidance Note - Preliminary Considerations - Background Notes
International Monetary Fund
The Background Notes in this Supplement provide essential context and analysis needed to understand the problem of governance and corruption, its impact on the economies of Fund members, and the history and nature of Fund engagement on these issues. They also seek to support the assessment of the Fund’s overall approach to promoting good governance and reducing corruption—including through the lenses of key stakeholders—with a view to identifying strength and closing any remaining gaps.
Keywords:
PP; governance; country; corruption issue; fund; governance indicator; guidance note; treaty obligation; governance issue; Corruption; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global competitiveness; Global; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belarus: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reviews the external competitiveness of the Belarusian economy, particularly in 2000–01. The analysis starts with an overview of developments in Belarus’ external current account. The paper then examines various competitiveness indicators, most importantly changes in external and internal real exchange rates, as well as labor cost measures. It reviews trade data by sectors to explain recent export performance. The paper also provides an overview of current wage policy and its macroeconomic effects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Belarus; wage; subsidy; government; policy challenge; gas arrears; common currency; B. wage Policy; cost recovery; Wage adjustments; Multiple currency practices; Exchange rates; Wages; Wage policy; Western Europe; Baltics; Europe