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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 140 items for :

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  • Fiscal Policy x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
A Recovery Short of Europe’s Full Potential
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe’s economy is recovering, benefiting from a strong crises’ response. Yet, the recovery is falling short of its full potential. Uncertainty about persistent core inflation, policy directions, and geopolitical conflicts is dampening the near-term outlook. In the longer term, perennially weak productivity growth—a result of limited scale and business dynamism–-amid new headwinds from fragmentation and climate change are holding back growth potential. Steady macro policies are needed to navigate an uncertain environment. This requires transitioning to a neutral monetary policy stance and reducing fiscal deficits without jeopardizing the recovery. Policymakers also need to tackle barriers to higher potential growth. A larger and more integrated single market for goods, services, and capital will incentivize investment, innovation, and generate scale benefits. Deepening European integration will also strengthen economic resilience by insulating businesses and labor markets from global fragmentation pressures. These are formidable policy challenges, but now is the time to bring Europe to its full potential.

Keywords:
Growth; inflation; outlook; potential growth; uncertainty; risk; macroeconomic policy; monetary policy; fiscal policy; financial sector policy; structural policy; EU climate; productivity slump; EU financing; governance framework; EU funds; EU country; competitiveness reform; value chain; inflation expectation; EU level; EU budget; CESEE region; Productivity; Purchasing power parity; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Fifth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria and completed four structural benchmarks. Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high. Preparedness is necessary to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize. Continued exchange rate flexibility under the managed exchange rate regime will help strengthen the resilience of the economy to external shocks. Sustained reform momentum, domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms.
Keywords:
downside Scenario financing gap; IMF staff estimate; C. financing Needs; budget financing needs; baseline scenario financing gap; authorities' intention; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Sovereign bonds; International reserves; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Latvia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation. Amid high uncertainty, growth is projected to rebound, but risks are tilted to the downside. Considering the improving outlook, the IMF Staff recommends a less expansionary, neutral fiscal stance for 2024 and a tighter fiscal stance in 2025. Although Latvia has some fiscal space, structural fiscal measures are needed to provide buffers for medium to long term spending pressures. Although the financial sector has so far been resilient, continued monitoring of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and spillovers is warranted. While the current macroprudential policy stance is broadly appropriate, the recent adjustment to the borrower-based measures for energy-efficient housing loans should be reconsidered. The overall policy stance strikes the right balance between maintaining financial stability and the need to extend credit to the economy. However, borrower-based macroprudential measures should be relaxed only when their presence is overly stringent from the financial stability perspective.
Keywords:
World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission; IMF-World Bank mission; audit committee charter; executive board assessment; anti-corruption plan; Labor markets; Productivity; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Aligning the Stabilizing Expenditure Rule to the European Union Fiscal Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Expenditure rule; Fiscal rule; Correction mechanism; EU economic governance; fiscal framework; Debt; Expenditure baseline; Republic of Poland.; SER limit; net expenditure path; EU net expenditure indicator; expenditure path; Fiscal rules; EU governance framework; Fiscal governance; Fiscal councils; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issue paper documents the recent episode of food inflation and food insecurity in Belize. The paper also overviews what policies were announced in Belize and the Caribbean during the recent cost-of-living crisis; and discusses the policies Belize could implement to protect its most vulnerable households from the threat of food insecurity going forward. It discusses the appropriate policies to protect vulnerable households from food price inflation going forward based on economic theory and best practices and estimates how much it would cost the government of Belize to protect the vulnerable population against a rise in food prices like the one in 2022. The authorities should evaluate the impact of the recent policy that regulates mark-ups on essential goods by wholesale and retail operators when they have sufficient data. The limits on the mark-up for 32 essential goods were introduced to limit the increase in food prices and avoid monopolistic practices.
Keywords:
food inflation; staff ream; debt target; cost of living crisis; B. food inflation; food inflation in Belize; price signals work; Food prices; Food security; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Soft Landing in Crosswinds for a Lasting Recovery
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

A soft landing for Europe’s economies is within reach. Securing the baseline of growth with price stability will require careful monetary policy calibration. Faster fiscal consolidation would ensure buffers are adequate to tackle future shocks, while structural fiscal reforms would help address mounting long-term expenditure pressures. Beyond the near-term recovery, raising potential growth prospects calls for efforts at both the domestic and European levels. Measures should aim to raise labor force participation, prepare the workforce for looming structural shifts, set an enabling environment for private investment, and promote innovation on a level European playing field—especially when it comes to the green transition, including through a strong commitment to carbon pricing. Greater European integration would amplify the effect of these reforms. Formulating an ambitious set of growth-enhancing reforms should be a key priority of a new EU commission.

Keywords:
Inflation; Growth; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Productivity; single market; soft landing; CESEE economy; inflation rate; IMF staff calculation; EU accession path; EU country; per capita income; Labor markets; Artificial intelligence; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global