Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Informal Economy; Underground Econom x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
Pierpaolo Grippa
,
William Oman
, and
Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications
Giovanni Borraccia
,
Raphael A Espinoza
,
Vincenzo Guzzo
,
Romain Lafarguette
,
Fuda Jiang
,
Vina Nguyen
,
Miguel A. Segoviano
, and
Philippe Wingender
We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.
Keywords:
Financial condition index; partial least square; funding constraints; credit availability and costs; price of risk; policy stance; inverse probability weighting; financial conditions in Europe; FCI regime; IMF working paper 2023/209; FCI indicator; measure of financial conditions; Inflation; Asset prices; Monetary tightening; Credit; Financial cycles; Europe; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Andrea Medici
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Marina M. Tavares
, and
Bella Yao
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Keywords:
policy trade-off; climate policy stringency; policy space; policy action; developing economy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Structural reforms; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Caribbean
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
,
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Mr. Alvar Kangur
,
Tansaya Kunaratskul
,
Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
,
Michele Ruta
,
Tatjana Schulze
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Mr. Juan P Trevino
After several decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF). This note explores the ramifications. It identifies multiple channels through which the benefits of globalization were earlier transmitted, and along which, conversely, the costs of GEF are likely to fall, including trade, migration, capital flows, technology diffusion and the provision of global public goods. It explores the consequences of GEF for the international monetary system and the global financial safety net. Finally, it suggests a pragmatic path forward for preserving the benefits of global integration and multilateralism
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; globalization; global economic integration; geopolitical blocs; international monetary system; global financial safety net; multilateralism; costs of economic fragmentation; rules-based multilateral system.; IMF AREAER report; U.S. Dollar share; trade openness; trade agenda; share of Global Foreign Exchange; Capital flows; Trade barriers; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Design and Institutionalize Spending Reviews
Laura Doherty
and
Amanda Sayegh
Spending reviews refer to the process of conducting in-depth assessments of existing public expenditure in order to identify opportunities to reduce or redirect spending from low-priority, inefficient, or ineffective spending. They offer a systemic approach to ensuring that spending is aligned with the government’s policy priorities, is effective in achieving its intended objectives and is deployed efficiently. This How to Note outlines the various objectives of spending reviews and provides guidance on designing a spending review process, including the organizational architecture and roles and responsibilities of various stakeholders. It also discusses the various stages of con¬ducting spending reviews and mechanisms for integrat¬ing their outcomes into the budget process. This note draws on lessons and experiences from countries that have established spending reviews, while recognizing that this is an emerging area for further reform.
Keywords:
• Spending reviews; public expenditure; public financial management; budget planning; program performance; efficiency and effectiveness; analyzing spending; A. spending review objective; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; spending review methodology; PFM reform; Public expenditure review; Budget planning and preparation; Expenditure efficiency; Europe; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
and
Rohit Goel
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Keywords:
emerging markets, bonds, COVID-19, at-risk framework; bond flow; hard currency assets; portfolio flow; emerging market assets; hard currency-denominated bond; hard currency bond; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Currencies; Bonds; Securities markets; Capital flows; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Ukraine
Mr. Anil Ari
and
Gabor Pula
Ukraine’s economic performance has been anemic since the early 1990s. A major impediment to productivity growth has been low investment, held back by lack of strong and independent institutions. This paper aims to assess the major areas of institutional weakness in Ukraine and quantify the long-term growth impact of catching-up to Poland in terms of the quality of major economic institutions and market development. Our analysis identifies the legal system as the area where the institutional quality is weakest compared to Poland, followed distantly by market competition, openness to trade and financial depth. Using a methodology that accounts for positive spillovers between the structural reform areas, we estimate that even under the most optimistic scenario, where institutional gaps are fully addressed, Ukraine would need 15 years to catch up to Poland’s current income level.
Keywords:
growth impact; reform gap; reform scenario; scenario Ukraine; indicator value; Structural reforms; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; International reserves; Corruption; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Risk Management, Fintech, and Cybersecurity
Mr. Ashraf Khan
and
Majid Malaika
Based on technical assistance to central banks by the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department and Information Technology Department, this paper examines fintech and the related area of cybersecurity from the perspective of central bank risk management. The paper draws on findings from the IMF Article IV Database, selected FSAP and country cases, and gives examples of central bank risks related to fintech and cybersecurity. The paper highlights that fintech- and cybersecurity-related risks for central banks should be addressed by operationalizing sound internal risk management by establishing and strengthening an integrated risk management approach throughout the organization, including a dedicated risk management unit, ongoing sensitizing and training of Board members and staff, clear reporting lines, assessing cyber resilience and security posture, and tying risk management into strategic planning.. Given the fast-evolving nature of such risks, central banks could make use of timely and regular inputs from external experts.
Keywords:
IMF Risk Management TA; risk landscape; B. IMF AIV; IMF surveillance; case example; Fintech; Central bank risk management; Cyber risk; Operational risk; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Alberto Soler
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
Ensuring that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are efficient and managed prudently is important for economic and social reasons. It is also crucial to contain fiscal risks and reduce the burden on taxpayers from recurrent and large bailouts. Governments need to develop stronger capacity to monitor and mitigate the risks from SOEs. We present a risk tool to benchmark the performance of SOEs relative to their peers and assess their vulnerabilities, including through stress tests. A strategy to mitigate risks requires the right incentives for managers to perform and for government agencies to conduct effective oversight. Incorporating SOEs in overall fiscal targets would promote greater fiscal discipline and transparency.
Keywords:
State-owned enterprises; contingent liabilities; fiscal risks; company c; financial support; SOEs manager; electricity company; negative equity; oversight unit; company level; sectoral strategy; SOEs financials; line ministry; company C; return on assets; Public enterprises; Budget planning and preparation; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the main factors explaining Ukraine’s growth performance so far, assesses whether the recent recovery is sustainable, and provides a quantitative analysis of long-term growth prospects. It finds that the recent recovery is not yet self-sustaining and estimates that long-term per capita GDP growth of 4–5 percent per year would be possible only if structural reforms are accelerated. The paper also discusses how the shadow economy has been measured in Ukraine and compares the results with studies of other transition economies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; company; country; tax; Ukraine; central bank; tax revenue; exchange rate; collection ratio; tax rate; Tariffs; Informal economy; Exports; Inflation targeting; Baltics; Eastern Europe