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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses opportunities and challenges of climate adaptation policies in Moldova. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters will require significant adaptation investments in the coming years. This paper shows that such investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, will be more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and will contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives. However, due to limited domestic financial resources in a complex economic environment, Moldova cannot finance the most-needed adaptation investments without endangering public debt sustainability or hindering its growth potential. Therefore, external support will be critical to help meet the adaptation needs.
Keywords:
quantifying Adaptation investment; Adaptation gap; macro impact; debt financing of Adaptation investment; economic growth in Moldova; Corruption; Infrastructure; Climate change; Natural disasters; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Impact of High Energy Prices on Germany’s Potential Output
Miss Yushu Chen
,
Ting Lan
,
Ms. Aiko Mineshima
, and
Jing Zhou
The surge in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced the energy-intensive sector’s production in Germany, although the non-energy intensive sector’s production has held up thanks in part to firms’ efforts to improve energy efficiency. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated in the foreseeable future, compared to pre-war levels, adversely affecting firms’ productivity and thus lowering Germany’s potential output. Economic modeling suggests that this effect could be around 1¼ percent of GDP in staff’s baseline, with some uncertainty around this estimate, depending on the ultimate magnitude of the energy price shock and the degree to which increased energy efficiency can mitigate it. Policies can promote effective adjustment to the shock by increasing productivity and maintaining strong price incentives to conserve energy and invest in renewable energy production.
Keywords:
Germany; energy prices; energy efficiency; productivity; potential output; potential growth; directed technical change; price effect; price signal; surge in energy price; effect favor; optimization problem; energy efficiency response; Energy conservation; Fuel prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Israel
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Israel’s impressive economic performance continued in 2022. Economic activity is expected to decelerate in 2023, and thereafter converge toward its potential. IMF staff projects economic growth to slow to about 2.5 percent in 2023, as households’ purchasing power moderates and firms rein in investment. The labor market is expected to remain tight and the unemployment rate is expected to marginally increase. Fiscal buffers are expected to be maintained as public debt to gross domestic product is projected to decrease further and stay below 60 percent. The external sector is projected to remain robust. As domestic demand starts recovering from 2024, the growth rate is anticipated to converge toward its potential rate, estimated at about 3.8 percent; thus, closing the output gap in the medium term. In order to enhance potential growth, authorities must prioritize education reform and infrastructure investment. Improving the skills of minorities will foster an inclusive economy. Improving local transportation infrastructure is key to reducing congestion, improving job accessibility, and alleviating cost of living concerns.
Keywords:
inflation target band; one-year breakeven inflation; inflation expectation; inflation in Israel; potential GDP; data module ROSC; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Labor markets; Infrastructure; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Premia on State-Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Taehoon Kim
, and
Antoine Levy
State-contingent debt instruments such as GDP-linked warrants have garnered attention as a potential tool to help debt-stressed economies smooth repayments over business cycles, yet very few studies of the empirical properties of these instruments exist. This paper develops a general f ramework to estimate the time-varying risk premium of a state-contingent sovereign debt instrument. Our estimation framework applied to GDP-linked warrants issued by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine reveals three stylized facts: (i) the risk premium in state-contingent instruments is high and persistent; (ii) the risk premium exhibits a pro-cyclical pattern; and (iii) the liquidity premium is higher and more volatile than that for plain-vanilla government bonds issued by the same sovereign. We then present a model in which investors fear ambiguity and that can account for the cyclical properties of the risk premium.
Keywords:
State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked warrants; Risk premia; Procyclicality; liquidity premium; GDP-linked warrant; estimation framework; SCDI premium; Sovereign bonds; Securities; Bonds; Liquidity; Debt restructuring; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
You Are Suffocating Me! Firm-Level Evidence on Crowding Out
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm level; so; firm FE; Fixed investment; state-owned enterprises; crowding-out effect; firm-level analysis; dataset consist; nonfinancial company; firm investment; SOE density; Private investment; Public enterprises; Government debt management; Revenue sharing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Progress Report
International Monetary Fund
The progress made by Moldova toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has not been uniform since 2007. Domestic economic and political crises are likely to undermine the achievement of several MDG targets set for 2010 and 2015. The goals were to reduce extreme poverty and hunger, achieve universal access to general secondary education, promote gender equality and empower woman, and so on. After growing dramatically in 1998–1999, poverty in Moldova began to decline in 2000. Addressing the environmental challenges and risks is imperative for Moldova.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; feasibility study; judicial system; legal aid; agricultural land; economic value; management system; vocational education; Exports; Infrastructure; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: A View From the Supply Side
International Monetary Fund
The output contractions during the initial transition stages in the Baltics and in Russia and the other CIS countries are examined across several dimensions, and the reliability of the available official statistics evaluated. The depth, length and breadth of the contractions are studied and set against a longer-run historical perspective. The relationship between inputs and outputs as described in a standard accounting framework shows that there is more to the contractions than collapsing investment and shrinking employment. Sharp declines in productivity, reflecting in part transition-related factors, also played a major role.
Keywords:
WP; Output; transition; growth; productivity; output decline; CIS country; productivity effect; TFP loss; output contraction; renewed output; productivity decline; index of total factor productivity; productivity occupation; higher-productivity sector; Total factor productivity; Agricultural sector; Labor productivity; Baltics; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 41 No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on the payments system reforms and monetary policy in emerging market economies in Central and Eastern Europe. The reforms in the payments system are viewed as closely interrelated with the development of money and foreign exchange markets and the instruments of monetary policy used by the central banks. The paper shows that although starting from similar origins, there were significant variations in experiences of the countries studied in transforming their payments systems after the start of the reforms toward a market economy, from which certain lessons can be drawn.
Keywords:
SP; priority mail delivery; IMF paper; Washington; D.C. 20431; yield curve differential; price movement; Currencies; Payment systems; Government debt management; Exchange rates; Inflation; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe; Maghreb; Global