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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper applies a range of quantitative methods to explain recent inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan. It presents an overview of recent developments and utilizes a principal component analysis to decompose inflation in Kazakhstan between global, regional, and domestic sources. In addition, it estimates a Phillips curve model, augmented with external variables, to quantify the drivers of inflation. The paper also estimates a vector autoregressive model to look more closely at dynamic effects. The results show that external factors have had a strong impact on inflation dynamics in Kazakhstan in the recent period, but domestic factors remained important. Looking ahead, inflation in Kazakhstan will depend significantly on the global environment but will also be shaped by domestic policy decisions. In the near term, premature monetary policy loosening should be avoided. In the medium term, efforts to strengthen the monetary policy framework should continue to help moderate the volatility of inflation and reach the inflation target. Fiscal policy should remain supportive of price stability.
Keywords:
I. data definition; inflation expectation; inflation in Kazakhstan; I. simulation result; drivers of inflation; Inflation; Oil exports; Oil production; Consumption; Real exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Piyaporn Chote
,
Corinne C Delechat
,
Thanaphol Kongphalee
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Pym Manopimoke
, and
Tamon Yungvichit
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; poverty; inflation dynamics; income effect; fiscal cost.; elevated inflation; inflation component; rising prices; energy price; Income; Energy prices; Consumption; Food prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Market Price of Risk and Macro-Financial Dynamics
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Fernando Duarte
, and
Tara Iyer
We propose the conditional volatility of GDP spanned by financial factors as a “Volatility Financial Conditions Index” (VFCI) and show it is closely tied to the market price of risk. The VFCI exhibits superior explanatory power for stock and bond risk premia compared to other FCIs. We use a variety of identification strategies and instruments to demonstrate robust causal relationships between the VFCI and macroeconomic aggregates: a tightening of financial conditions as measured by the VFCI leads to a persistent contraction of output and triggers an immediate easing of monetary policy. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy shocks cause tighter financial conditions.
Keywords:
Macro-Finance; Financial Conditions Index; Monetary Policy; Asset Pricing; Market Price of Risk; Consumption Volatility; Causal Identification; bond risk premia; contractionary monetary policy shock; tightening of financial conditions; VFCI shock; Structural vector autoregression; Consumption; Asset prices; Estimation techniques; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach
Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq
and
Diego Alejandro Gutiérrez
The heightened volatility of commodity prices in recent years, reflecting the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, begs the longstanding question of the optimal fiscal policy response to commodity price shocks. Fiscal performance in most commodity-exporting countries is typically shaped by shifts in commodity prices and economic activity, often resulting in procyclical fiscal policy. One way to minimize the procyclicality of fiscal policy is to set up a stabilization Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). While such funds can help smooth government consumption in good and bad times, the empirical evidence of their value so far has been inconclusive. However, using an unbalanced panel dataset for 182 countries during 1980-2019, with two econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, we provide robust evidence that stabilization SWFs do indeed help smooth government consumption by reducing fiscal policy volatility associated with commodity price fluctuations.
Keywords:
Sovereign Wealth Funds; Fiscal Policy Procyclicality; Matching Analysis; Commodity-exporting Countries; fiscal policy Pro-cyclicality; stabilization sovereign wealth fund; commodity price variability; stabilization SWF; discretionary fiscal policy volatility; Commodity price fluctuations; Commodity prices; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Food Insecurity in Nigeria: Food Supply Matters: Nigeria
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
and
Ms. Rima A Turk
Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; agriculture; yields; inputs; inflation support food security; food price inflation; vegetable oil; inflation differential; food inflation; food category; food import ratio; food consumption; food availability; food import reliance; Food security; Food prices; Consumption; Agricultural commodities; Food imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the Czech Republic’s nascent recovery from the pandemic. Uncertainty is high due to the war with risks to economic activity tilted to the downside and risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The economy remains vulnerable to the availability of and further increases in energy and commodity prices. Czechia's nascent recovery from the pandemic has been hindered by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas shortages are unlikely this winter but further increases in energy prices are a key risk. Inflation, which is well above target, and the rise in the cost of living are causing significant social pressure. Amid a volatile economic environment and high risks to the outlook, policy needs to balance reducing inflation with supporting the most vulnerable. Once uncertainty dissipates, continuing the structural policy agenda will be critical. Labor market policies should continue to improve the integration of women, migrants, and refugees, and facilitate the green and digital economic transformation. The indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy would improve pension sustainability and increase labor supply. While energy security is an immediate priority, policies for the green transformation should continue.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; high-inflation environment; headline inflation; potential GDP; reducing inflation; creating capital inflows; Inflation; Fiscal stance; External sector statistics; Consumption; Europe; Global
Cover Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
Regional Economic Issues, Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe
How to Get Back on the Fast Track
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This paper discusses the robust growth that continues in most Central and Southeastern European economies as well as in Turkey. Accommodative macroeconomic policies, improving financial intermediation, and rising real wages have been behind the region’s mostly consumption-driven rebound, while private investment remained subdued. In the near-term, strong domestic demand is expected to continue supporting growth amid continued low or negative inflation. The Russian economy went through a sharp contraction last year amid plunging oil prices and sanctions. Other CIS countries were hurt by domestic political and financial woes, as well as by weak demand from Russia. In 2016, output contraction is projected to moderate to around 1½ percent from 4¼ percent in 2015 as the shocks that hit the CIS economies gradually reverberate less and activity stabilizes. In the baseline, a combination of supportive monetary policy and medium-term fiscal consolidation remains valid for many economies in the region.

Keywords:
REO; country; CIS economy; CESEE country; inflation; CESEE economy; investment rate; monetary policy autonomy; CESEE region; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Minimum wages; Income; Domestic savings; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Hungary: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
Non-performing loans (NPLs) were found to respond to macroeconomic conditions, such as GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation; there are also strong feedback effects from the banking system to the real economy. This suggests that the high NPLs that many CESEE countries currently face adversely affect the pace of economic recovery. The note also evaluates different policy options to achieve permanent fiscal consolidation in Hungary. A fiscal consolidation based on a reduction in government transfers can stimulate labor participation, and a resulting increase in the returns to capital can increase investment and output in the long term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment; output; bank; data quality; inertial consumption dynamics; NPLS ratio; NPL shock; asset quality; Nonperforming loans; Consumption; Fiscal consolidation; Public investment spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Ukraine Gas Pricing Policy: Distributional Consequences of Tariff Increases
Ms. Pritha Mitra
and
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
Ukraine’s gas pricing policy subsidizes gas and heating for all households. As the cost of imported gas rises, this policy increasingly weighs on government finances, sustains energy over-consumption, dampens investment in delivery systems, and undermines incentives for domestic production. However, gas price hikes have been deferred to the medium-term as they are politically unpopular. Through estimation of household demand functions by income quintiles to evaluate the distributional consequences of tarrif reform, this paper finds that tariff reforms combined with targeted social support can address the economic inefficiencies of the current pricing policy without large welfare costs to the lower income segments of the population.
Keywords:
WP; price; elasticity; subsidies; government expenditure and related policies; welfare; price elasticity; interaction elasticity; interaction term; heating tariff; tariff increase; Income; Tariffs; Consumption; Price elasticity; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 41 No. 4
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The paper presents a model of optimum currency areas using a general equilibrium approach with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union. [JEL F33, F36]
Keywords:
SP; currency union; lending rate; terms of trade; currency arrangement; arrangements in country; progress of economic reform; export tax breaks; exchange rate strategy; Monetary unions; Tariffs; Money markets; Consumption; Pensions; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe