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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Institutions and the Macroeconomy x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs
Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Keywords:
IMF-supported programs; conditionality; expenditure policy; social assistance; energy subsidies; pension spending; health spending; education spending; wage bill management; policy conditionality; policy area; IMF working papers; reform plan; E. public health spending; Health care spending; Caribbean; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Keywords:
Conditionality; Conditionality guidelines; Use of Fund resources; Fund-supported adjustment programs; Debt sustainability analysis; Structural reform; Fragile and conflict-affected states; transparency policy; guidance note; Fund-supported program; financing gap; climate change policy assessment; policy note; existing IMF policy; financial support; Balance of payments need; Debt sustainability; Structural reforms; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Andrea Medici
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Marina M. Tavares
, and
Bella Yao
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Keywords:
policy trade-off; climate policy stringency; policy space; policy action; developing economy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Structural reforms; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Second Reviews Under The Extended Credit Facility And The Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, And Requests For Waivers For Performance Criteria Applicability And Modification Of Performance Criterion—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director For Cameroon
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Following two years of COVID-19 challenges, Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), is facing a new policy environment. The nascent economic recovery from mid-2021, supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production, is now subject to greater uncertainties with spillovers from the war in Ukraine, high inflationary pressures, especially on food and fuel prices, and a tightening of global financial conditions. Low vaccination rates also leave the country vulnerable to further COVID-19 waves. In July 2021, the IMF’s Executive Board approved three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of Cameroon’s quota) to support the country’s economic and financial reform program.
Keywords:
State asset management company; Cameroon staff team; commitment plan; capacity development strategy note update; authorities' goal; Fuel prices; Energy subsidies; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cameroon: Second Reviews Under The Extended Credit Facility And The Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, And Requests For Waivers For Performance Criteria Applicability And Modification Of Performance Criterion—Press Release; Staff Report; And Statement By The Executive Director For Cameroon
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Following two years of COVID-19 challenges, Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), is facing a new policy environment. The nascent economic recovery from mid-2021, supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production, is now subject to greater uncertainties with spillovers from the war in Ukraine, high inflationary pressures, especially on food and fuel prices, and a tightening of global financial conditions. Low vaccination rates also leave the country vulnerable to further COVID-19 waves. In July 2021, the IMF’s Executive Board approved three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of Cameroon’s quota) to support the country’s economic and financial reform program.
Keywords:
State asset management company; Cameroon staff team; commitment plan; capacity development strategy note update; authorities' goal; Fuel prices; Energy subsidies; Oil prices; Global
Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Ukraine
Mr. Anil Ari
and
Gabor Pula
Ukraine’s economic performance has been anemic since the early 1990s. A major impediment to productivity growth has been low investment, held back by lack of strong and independent institutions. This paper aims to assess the major areas of institutional weakness in Ukraine and quantify the long-term growth impact of catching-up to Poland in terms of the quality of major economic institutions and market development. Our analysis identifies the legal system as the area where the institutional quality is weakest compared to Poland, followed distantly by market competition, openness to trade and financial depth. Using a methodology that accounts for positive spillovers between the structural reform areas, we estimate that even under the most optimistic scenario, where institutional gaps are fully addressed, Ukraine would need 15 years to catch up to Poland’s current income level.
Keywords:
growth impact; reform gap; reform scenario; scenario Ukraine; indicator value; Structural reforms; Total factor productivity; Commodity markets; International reserves; Corruption; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2015 Extended Arrangement-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper focuses on Ukraine’s Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2015 Extended Arrangement. Sound fiscal and monetary policies since the 2014–2015 crisis have resulted in a sharp reduction in Ukraine’s external and internal imbalances. Public debt was put on a downward path, inflation has declined, and international reserves have recovered. The new Stand-By Arrangement will provide an anchor for the authorities’ efforts to address the impact of the crisis, while ensuring macroeconomic stability and safeguarding achievements to date. Together with support from the World Bank and the European Union, it will help address large financing needs. The program will focus on safeguarding medium-term fiscal sustainability, preserving central bank independence and the flexible exchange rate, and enhancing financial stability while recovering the costs from bank resolutions. The National Bank of Ukraine has skillfully managed monetary policy during a very challenging period. Central Bank independence should be preserved, and monetary and exchange rate policies should continue to provide a stable anchor in the context of the inflation-targeting regime, while allowing orderly exchange rate adjustment and preventing liquidity stress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; policy; emergency financing request; sound fiscal policy; policy priority; budget support; government financing; financing needs; fiscal financing; Structural reforms; Tariffs; Global; Corruption
Cover Policy Papers
2018 Review of Program Design and Conditionality
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
The 2018 Review of Program Design and Conditionality is the first comprehensive stocktaking of Fund lending operations since the global financial crisis. The review assesses program performance between September 2011 and end-2017. Programs during this period were defined by the protracted structural challenges faced by members and hampered by the persistently weak global environment.
Keywords:
PP; director; Fund staff; program design; Fund program performance; Fund-supported program; conditionality framework; Fund policy review; PRGT program; Fiscal consolidation; Debt sustainability; Structural reforms; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries
Wilfried A. Kouamé
and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; firm-level productivity; structural reform; productivity gain; Structural Reforms; Productivity; Developing countries; firm level; growth potential; firms benefit; productivity gains; firms' characteristic; Labor productivity; Business environment; Global; Middle East; East Asia; North Africa; Central Asia