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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 53 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
macro News; macroeconomics news; ECB monetary policy surprise; EU TFP frontier; inflation expectation; Automobile industry; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Asset prices; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Competitiveness and Productivity in the Baltics: Common Shocks, Different Implications
Saioa Armendariz
,
Carlos de Resende
,
Alice Fan
,
Gianluigi Ferrucci
,
Bingjie Hu
,
Sadhna Naik
, and
Can Ugur
This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia’s war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper starts by documenting a deterioration in export performance across the region. Using a constant share decomposition, it finds that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, Estonia’s declining export share has been mainly linked to a reduction in the ‘intensive margin’—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. Multivariate filtering techniques and estimates of the real effective exchange rates based on historical productivity trends, consistent with Balassa-Samuelson, confirm that differences in long-term total factor productivity growth have affected external competitiveness. While Estonia’s post-GFC slowdown in productivity growth and real exchange rate appreciation have eroded its competitive edge, Latvia and Lithuania have shown greater resilience, aided by more balanced real effective exchange rates and, for Lithuania, stronger corporate balance sheets. A micro-econometric analysis further reveals that resource misallocation, particularly in the services sector, has been a key driver of declining productivity in the region. These findings underscore the need for targeted reforms to improve allocative efficiency, boost productivity, and restore competitiveness in the Baltic region.
Keywords:
Export shares; Competitiveness; Productivity; Baltics; export share; productivity in the Baltic; resource misallocation; productivity trend; TFP dynamics; TFP deceleration; Total factor productivity; Real effective exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shocked: Electricity Price Volatility Spillovers in Europe
Serhan Cevik
and
Yueshu Zhao
European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe.
Keywords:
Electricity prices; Volatility; Spillovers; Gravity model; Renewable energy; Electricity market reform; Europe; volatility spillover; spillover effect; markets in the EU; electricity market; Electricity; Gravity models
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Moldova: Technical Assistance Report-Analysis of the Draft Law on the Anti-Corruption Judicial System and on Amending Some Normative Acts
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
Upon the request of the authorities of Moldova, the Legal Department provided Technical Assistance on the establishment of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Judiciary (SAJ) in Moldova. The TA report provides analysis of the draft law on the Anti-Corruption Judicial System and other related laws, and proposes recommendations. The recommendations are informed by international standards and good practices on judicial independence and integrity, and are designed to respond to specific challenges faced by Moldova. The creation of the SAJ is an important new initiative aimed at strengthening anti-corruption efforts following the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Office (APO) in 2016. A SAJ composed of judges selected through competitive process with the participation of civil society and reputable anti-corruption experts, can significantly contribute to reducing corruption through effective adjudication of corruption cases.
Keywords:
Republic of Moldova; specialized courts; anti-corruption; rule of law; judiciary; judges; judicial independence; Pre-selection Commission; vetting.; draft law; parliament of the Republic of Moldova; legal department; subject matter jurisdiction; SAJ member; comments from the World Bank; Corruption; Allowance for corporate equity; Civil society organizations; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Medium-term Macroeconomic Effects of Russia’s War in Ukraine and How it Affects Energy Security and Global Emission Targets
Hugo Rojas-Romagosa
Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted the supply of natural gas for many European countries, triggering an energy crisis and affecting energy security. We simulate the medium-term effects of these trade disruptions and find that most European countries have limited GDP losses but those more dependent on Russian natural gas face moderate losses. European fossil fuel consumption and emissions are reduced and after accounting for the war impacts, achieving Europe’s emission targets becomes slightly less costly. In terms of energy security, the war eliminates European energy dependency from Russian imports, but most of the natural gas and oil imports will be substituted by other suppliers. We also find that constructing a new Russian pipeline to China does not provide significant macroeconomic benefits to either country.
Keywords:
Energy supply; energy security; trade disruptions; greenhouse gas emissions; computable general equilibrium; baseline share; w.r.t. baseline price; w.r.t baseline price; oil import; Natural gas sector; Imports; Exports; Electricity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Inflation Good for Business? The Firm-Level Impact of Inflation Shocks in the Baltics, 1997-2021
Serhan Cevik
,
Alice Fan
, and
Sadhna Naik
Using a large panel of firm-level data, this paper provides an analysis of how inflation shocks in the Baltics between 1997 and 2021 affected total factor productivity (TFP), gross profitability, and net fixed investment in nonfinancial sectors. First, we find that inflation and inflation volatility had mixed effects on TFP growth, profitability and net fixed investment in the first year as well as over the medium term, albeit at a dissipating rate. Second, focusing on subsamples, we find that inflation shocks had differential effects on large versus small firms. Third, we explore sectoral heterogeneity in how firms responded to inflation shocks and observe significant variation across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally, estimates from a state-dependent model suggest that firms’ response to inflation shocks varied with the state of the economy. The results suggest that nonfinancial firms in the Baltics have been agile in adjusting to inflation shocks, possibly by either transferring higher production costs to consumers or substituting inputs. Given the differences in the level and nature of the recent inflation shock and the sample period on which our analysis is based, empirical findings presented in this paper might not necessarily apply to the latest bout of inflation in the Baltics.
Keywords:
Inflation; firm performance; productivity; profitability; fixed investment; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; inflation shock; inflation volatility; IMF working paper No. 24/43; nonfinancial firm; impact of inflation; affected total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; Economic recession
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Consequences of Falling Behind the Curve: Inflation Shocks and Policy Delays Under Rational and Behavioral Expectations
Mai Hakamada
and
Carl E. Walsh
Central banks in major industrialized economies were slow to react to the surge in inflation that began in early 2021. The proximate causes of this surge were the supply chain disruptions associated with the easing of COVID restrictions, fiscal policies designed to cushion the economic impact of COVID, and the impact on commodity prices and supply chains of the war in Ukraine. We investigate the consequences of policy delay in responding to inflation shocks. First, using a simple three-period model, we show how policy delay worsens inflation outcomes, but can mitigate or even reverse the output decline that occurs when policy responds without delay. Then, using a calibrated new Keynesian framework and two measures of loss that incorporate a “balanced approach” to weigh inflation and the output gap, we find that loss is monotonically increasing in the length of the delay. Loss is reduced if policy, when it does react, is more aggressive. To investigate whether these results are sensitive to the assumption of rational expectations, we consider cognitive discounting as an alternative assumption about expectations. With cognitive discounting, forward guidance is less powerful and results in a reduction in the costs of delay. Under either assumption about expectations, the costs of a short delay can be eliminated by adopting a less inertial policy rule and a more aggressive response to inflation.
Keywords:
monetary policy; inflation policy delay; behavioral expectations; falling behind the curve; Policy delay; inflation outcome; inflation shock; supply chain disruption; trend inflation; Inflation; Output gap; Rational expectations; Central bank policy rate; Real interest rates
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Corruption and Economic Growth in Moldova: A Reexamination
Maksym Markevych
and
Marina Marinkov
This paper examines corruption in Moldova, analyzing its impact on economic growth and progress in implementing earlier IMF recommendations on anti-corruption and anti-money laundering (AML). Despite solid legal frameworks, corruption remains a significant challenge, impeding growth and EU convergence. Drawing from regional successes, the paper stresses the importance of specialized anti-corruption agencies, robust prosecution, civil society involvement, and international expertise. Moldova has made strides in strengthening its legal and institutional infrastructure, but challenges like delayed corruption case adjudication persist. Recommendations include enhancing the Anti-corruption Prosecution Office's investigative capacity and establishing specialized adjudication infrastructure.
Keywords:
Corruption; economic growth; governance; anti-money laundering; economic growth in Moldova; adjudication infrastructure; Moldova's progress; investigative capacity; corruption case; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Civil society; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Piyaporn Chote
,
Corinne C Delechat
,
Thanaphol Kongphalee
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Pym Manopimoke
, and
Tamon Yungvichit
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; poverty; inflation dynamics; income effect; fiscal cost.; elevated inflation; inflation component; rising prices; energy price; Income; Energy prices; Consumption; Food prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses opportunities and challenges of climate adaptation policies in Moldova. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters will require significant adaptation investments in the coming years. This paper shows that such investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, will be more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and will contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives. However, due to limited domestic financial resources in a complex economic environment, Moldova cannot finance the most-needed adaptation investments without endangering public debt sustainability or hindering its growth potential. Therefore, external support will be critical to help meet the adaptation needs.
Keywords:
quantifying Adaptation investment; Adaptation gap; macro impact; debt financing of Adaptation investment; economic growth in Moldova; Corruption; Infrastructure; Climate change; Natural disasters; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe