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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover Policy Papers
Review of the IMF’s Communications Strategy
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
On November 22, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) discussed a paper on the Review of the IMF’s Communication Strategy that outlines the objectives and scope of Fund communication, reviews its implementation in recent years, and proposes updates and modernization of its approach going forward. The discussion on Fund communication is in addition to the Board Review of the IMF's Transparency Policy, which sets the guidelines for the types and extent of information that the Fund may release publicly (see Press Release 24/436 for the latest review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy).
Keywords:
IMF; Communication; Strategy; Transparency; Media; Stakeholders; Engagement; Trust; Effective; fund Communications; policy advice; Fund communications; evaluation framework; reputational impact; fund communication; Social networks; Civil society organizations; Civil society; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) Mission (July 15–19, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from July 15–19, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) to develop new processes and methods for the compilation of the House Price Index (HPI). This was the second mission of a project that commenced in April 2024. The mission worked closely with the authorities to (i) develop R scripts to clean the listings data received from an online real estate platform, (ii) implement updated methods for index compilation, and (iii) increase the capacity of the SSSU staff.
Keywords:
House Price Index; Residential Real Estate Price Index; Macroeconomic Statistics; Real Estate; Housing Market; Property Values; Price Appreciation; Inflation; Economic Indicators; Residential Properties; Ukraine.; IMF's statistics department; Property price index; section I.; IMF executive directors; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; OLX data; Export fluctuations; Real estate prices; Land prices; Data processing; Data collection
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Residential Property Price Index Mission (April 8–12, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from April 8–12, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) with a methodological review of their House Price Index (HPI). The mission assessed the existing data and methodology used for the compilation of the HPI and made recommendations for improvements as required, in line with international statistical standards. The mission completed the following tasks: (i) undertake a review of the listings data collected by the SSSU and the data preparation being applied, (ii) assess the stratification and hedonic methods used for the HPI, (iii) review the weights and aggregation procedures used to compile the national index, (iv) provide guidance on the dissemination of the HPI, and (v) provide practical training to staff in the SSSU.
Keywords:
RPPI; Residential Property Price Index (RPPI); property prices; real estate prices; macroeconomic statistics; macroprudential policy; financial sector risks.; IMF executive directors; World Bank staff; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; listings data; weight information; Price indexes; Data collection; Land prices; House price indexes; Export fluctuations
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, April 2024
Soft Landing in Crosswinds for a Lasting Recovery
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

A soft landing for Europe’s economies is within reach. Securing the baseline of growth with price stability will require careful monetary policy calibration. Faster fiscal consolidation would ensure buffers are adequate to tackle future shocks, while structural fiscal reforms would help address mounting long-term expenditure pressures. Beyond the near-term recovery, raising potential growth prospects calls for efforts at both the domestic and European levels. Measures should aim to raise labor force participation, prepare the workforce for looming structural shifts, set an enabling environment for private investment, and promote innovation on a level European playing field—especially when it comes to the green transition, including through a strong commitment to carbon pricing. Greater European integration would amplify the effect of these reforms. Formulating an ambitious set of growth-enhancing reforms should be a key priority of a new EU commission.

Keywords:
Inflation; Growth; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Productivity; single market; soft landing; CESEE economy; inflation rate; IMF staff calculation; EU accession path; EU country; per capita income; Labor markets; Artificial intelligence; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malta: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malta
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta has experienced an impressive recovery from the pandemic and demonstrated resilience to shocks resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The challenge for the medium term is to ensure a robust policy framework to foster strong, socially- and environmentally-sustainable, and inclusive growth. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside in part due to spillover effects from a possible escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine or of the Israel–Gaza conflict, as well as a deeper-than-expected economic downturn in Europe. Domestically, wage and inflationary pressures could be higher and more persistent. On the upside, lower-than-expected commodity prices would help decelerate inflation, ease fiscal pressures, and boost growth. Key priorities include containing demand pressures by accelerating fiscal consolidation, exiting gradually from the current fixed energy price policy while protecting vulnerable groups, maintaining financial stability, and boosting structural reform efforts. Boosting productivity will be imperative to achieve strong, socially-and environmentally sustainable, and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; government energy policy; SDDS preparation; lower-than-expected commodity price; anti-corruption framework; Energy prices; Inflation; External sector statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting the Law: Artificial Intelligence Findings from the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database
Khaled AlAjmi
,
Jose Deodoro
,
Mr. Ashraf Khan
, and
Kei Moriya
Using the 2010, 2015, and 2020/2021 datasets of the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database (CBLD), we explore artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches to analyzing patterns in central bank legislation. Our findings highlight that: (i) a simple Naïve Bayes algorithm can link CBLD search categories with a significant and increasing level of accuracy to specific articles and phrases in articles in laws (i.e., predict search classification); (ii) specific patterns or themes emerge across central bank legislation (most notably, on central bank governance, central bank policy and operations, and central bank stakeholders and transparency); and (iii) other AI/ML approaches yield interesting results, meriting further research.
Keywords:
central bank legislation; central banking; artificial intelligence; machine learning; Bayesian algorithm; Boolean algorithm; central bank governance; law and economics; ML approach; IMF central bank transparency code; IMF Central Bank Legislation Database; capital markets Department; approaches to analyzing pattern; CBLD data flow; Central bank autonomy; Central bank transparency; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Risk Management, Fintech, and Cybersecurity
Mr. Ashraf Khan
and
Majid Malaika
Based on technical assistance to central banks by the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department and Information Technology Department, this paper examines fintech and the related area of cybersecurity from the perspective of central bank risk management. The paper draws on findings from the IMF Article IV Database, selected FSAP and country cases, and gives examples of central bank risks related to fintech and cybersecurity. The paper highlights that fintech- and cybersecurity-related risks for central banks should be addressed by operationalizing sound internal risk management by establishing and strengthening an integrated risk management approach throughout the organization, including a dedicated risk management unit, ongoing sensitizing and training of Board members and staff, clear reporting lines, assessing cyber resilience and security posture, and tying risk management into strategic planning.. Given the fast-evolving nature of such risks, central banks could make use of timely and regular inputs from external experts.
Keywords:
IMF Risk Management TA; risk landscape; B. IMF AIV; IMF surveillance; case example; Fintech; Central bank risk management; Cyber risk; Operational risk; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Eastern Europe
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Definitions of Government in IMF-Supported Programs
Ms. Claudia H Dziobek
,
Mr. Alberto F Jimenez de Lucio
, and
Mr. James A Chan
This note addresses the following main issues: • Statistical definitions of government (Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001) • Institutional structure of government and public sector • What is a precise definition of government and why it is relevant • Potential pitfalls of lacking a precise definition of government • Definitions of government in IMF-supported programs • Applications for fiscal rules and other fiscal policy design
Keywords:
TNM; government; definition of government; definition; country; precise definition; Statistical definition of government; Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 (GFSM 2001); System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA); intragovernment transfer; government entity; government balance sheet; federation government; governments of the State; Government finance statistics; Personal income; Public sector; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Statistical Capacity Building
Statistical Capacity Building
Case Studies and Lessons Learned
Mr. Thomas K. Morrison

Abstract

IMF technical assistance provided by the Statistics Department--toward assisting IMF member countries in developing the ability to provide reliable and comparable economic and financial data on a timely basis to policymakers and markets--has increased more than fourfold over the past decade. This assistance has proven critical in countries building their statistical capacity so as to come into line with international data standards in an increasingly globalized and electronically interconnected world. Statistical Capacity Building: Case Studies and Lessons Learned presents four case studies drawn from experience in three countries in transition to the market, two of which were also in postconflict situations, in the 1990s and early 2000s: Cambodia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine. Issues of setting, institutional and statistical arrangements, strategies, and implementation are examined, and lessons learned.

Keywords:
M&G; government; BiH Office; donor; country; statistics; NBU staff; State statistics law; developing country government; IMF TA; BiH authorities; Monetary statistics; Commercial banks; Financial statistics; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Global; Central Asia; Real sector statistics; Data collection