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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Request for modifications of performance criteria, and Second review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternative Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements, Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement for Moldova. The recovery from adverse spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine and energy price shocks is taking hold. Growth picked up in 2024 and is expected to strengthen further in 2025, driven by robust domestic demand. Downside risks remain high, mainly related to Russia’s war in Ukraine and renewed energy shocks. While quantitative performance of the program has been strong, implementation of structural reforms has been uneven. Further reforms to enhance fiscal performance and the allocation of public resources, strengthen energy security, strengthen governance and the rule of law, and advance climate adaptation and mitigation are key to protect Moldova against shocks and improve its growth prospects.
Keywords:
Gradual consolidation; Consultation band; Energy security; Climate policy; Credit; EU integration; EU reform agenda; Natural disasters; Policy commitment; CB governance; Anti-corruption; Letter of intent.; B. government policy; weather events risk; energy transition; RSF reform; authorities' reform; reform measure; Fiscal risks; Budget planning and preparation; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing: Chasing Elusive Sustainability
Ekaterina Gratcheva
and
Bryan Gurhy
This paper evaluates the progression of the sovereign ESG landscape since the initial comprehensive assessment of the sector in 2021 in “Demystifying Sovereign ESG” by conducting a comparative analysis of the current sovereign ESG methodologies of commercial ESG providers. The 2021 study articulated the distinct nature of the sovereign ESG segment from corporate ESG and documented fundamental shortcomings in sovereign ESG methodologies, such as the “ingrained income bias”, lack of consensus on environmental performance, and conflation of risk and sustainability objectives. While sovereign ESG methodologies have evolved since 2021, the significant correlation across providers of aggregate, S, and G scores persist. In response to market demand there has been a notable shift towards greater focus on the E pillar against growing heterogeneity on climate and environmental considerations across ESG providers. The findings underscore the disparity between perceptions and realities in implementing a sustainability strategy within the sovereign debt asset class. This necessitates a reevaluation of sovereign ESG scoring methodologies towards outcome-based metrics and urges a globally coordinated effort to establish robust sustainability measurement frameworks.
Keywords:
ESG; sovereign debt; sovereign ESG scores; sustainability; environmental and climate sustainability; climate financial architecture; ESG provider; ESG methodology; sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance; ESG landscape; ESG score; Corporate social responsibility; Environmental sustainability; Income; Climate finance; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area
Maximilian Konradt
,
Thomas McGregor
, and
Frederik G Toscani
What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel local projections approach, as well as event studies based on individual countries. Our estimates suggest that carbon taxes raised the price of energy but had limited effects on overall consumer prices. Since future climate policy will need to be much more ambitious compared to what has been observed so far, including the need for larger increases in carbon prices, possible non-linearities might make extrapolating from historical results difficult. We thus also use input-output tables to simulate the mechanical effect of a carbon tax consistent with the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ commitments on inflation. The required increase of effective carbon prices from around 40 Euro per ton of CO2 in 2021 to around 150 Euro by 2030 could raise annual euro area inflation by between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. It is worth noting that the energy price increases caused by the rise in the effective carbon price to 150 Euro is substantially smaller than the energy price spike seen in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine.
Keywords:
Green transition; carbon taxes; climate policy; inflation; energy price spike; EU ETS price; European Union's Emission Trading System; headline inflation; EU ETS; price level; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumer prices; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Policies to Address Climate Change: Ukraine
Geoffrey N. Keim
and
Mariia Sydorovych
While the near-term priorities are national defense and macroeconomic stabilization, gradually incorporating climate change considerations into policy design will become increasingly important after the war and into the long term. As regards climate change adaptation, investments will need to be made with a view to maintain long-term debt sustainability. Policy reforms will also be needed to move to a low-emissions economy to deliver international commitments and achieve the broader objective of European Union accession. Potential exists to deliver on climate priorities alongside implementing recovery and reconstruction efforts, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, and ensuring social protection and equity.
Keywords:
Ukraine; climate change; carbon pricing; debt sustainability; address climate change; climate change adaptation; B. GHG emission; long-term debt sustainability; policy reform; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, Requests for Augmentations of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria, and First Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses 2023 Article IV Consultation, Sixth Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangements, Requests for Augmentations of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria, and First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) Arrangement. Performance under the EFF/ECF arrangements is aligned with the program’s objectives, while the RSF arrangement is supporting the authorities’ climate agenda. Steadfast implementation of the package of mutually reinforcing policies and reforms is the key to maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening debt sustainability, and building buffers against shocks. Near-term policy responses should complement measures needed to bolster Kenya’s medium-term prospects toward a vibrant, inclusive, green, and market-driven economy. Unlocking Kenya’s potential and realizing its positive medium-term prospects will require resolute efforts at sustaining structural reforms to support more job creation, poverty reduction, and making the economy greener and more resilient.
Keywords:
ECF arrangement; biodiversity target; carbon markets regulation; EFF arrangement; State corporation; AFRITAC East; Credit; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses opportunities and challenges of climate adaptation policies in Moldova. Strengthening resilience to natural disasters will require significant adaptation investments in the coming years. This paper shows that such investments can substantially reduce output losses caused by natural disasters, will be more cost-efficient than responding to disasters ex-post, and will contribute to boost Moldova’s long-term economic growth and support its development objectives. However, due to limited domestic financial resources in a complex economic environment, Moldova cannot finance the most-needed adaptation investments without endangering public debt sustainability or hindering its growth potential. Therefore, external support will be critical to help meet the adaptation needs.
Keywords:
quantifying Adaptation investment; Adaptation gap; macro impact; debt financing of Adaptation investment; economic growth in Moldova; Corruption; Infrastructure; Climate change; Natural disasters; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Staff Report for 2023 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Request for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Republic of Moldova’s 2023 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangements, Request for Extension and Rephasing of the Arrangements, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Moldova continues to grapple with persistent challenges from spillovers of Russia’s war in Ukraine. ECF/EFF implementation remains strong despite these challenges, with completion of important reforms related to fiscal governance, financial sector oversight, and the rule of law. Contingency plans have alleviated the effects of the energy crisis, with progress in diversifying energy sources and enhancing protection for the vulnerable population during winter months. Inflation decelerated rapidly due to timely monetary responses, declining food, and fuel prices. Moldova faces ongoing challenges related to spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Policies are appropriately focused on crisis mitigation and recovery; as risks abate, policies should align with long-term development goals while ensuring fiscal sustainability. Ongoing institutional and policy reforms will contribute to boosting medium-term, sustainable growth.
Keywords:
EFF program; RSF arrangement; EFF arrangement; reform agenda; agriculture sector; Climate change; Climate finance; Global; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Côte d'Ivoire’s poverty reduction and growth strategy. The macroeconomic framework has been sound, with low inflation, a sustainable public sector, a robust banking system and a balanced external position. Poverty in Côte d'Ivoire has been steadily decreasing since 2016, continuing the trend observed since early 2011. Access to electricity has improved throughout the national territory. Actions have been undertaken to enhance the economy’s productivity through the strengthening of infrastructure and governance. In particular, Côte d’Ivoire is committed to advancing equality between men and women in all areas of public and private life, in order to empower women economically, socially, and politically and achieve a more egalitarian society. The government has undertaken to step up actions in favor of girls' education, increase access rates.
Keywords:
Ivorian government; government plan; Ivorian authority; government's Social Program; medium-term development strategy; social action; Climate change; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to address climate change in Ukraine. The war has been a setback to continued progress on Ukraine’s climate objectives. Over the longer term, Ukraine has potential to implement policies that internalize climate-related priorities as well as reconstruction, macroeconomic stability, and social protection priorities. Ukraine is vulnerable to climate change from substantially warmer temperatures and more volatile rainfall patterns that may arise under more severely adverse climate scenarios. Essential investments in climate change adaptation will need to be taken with a view toward avoiding debt vulnerabilities. Ukraine’s investment needs in this area are moderate sized. Ukraine should be in a position to make these investments over the longer term, including after debt sustainability has been restored, without causing debt vulnerabilities to re-emerge. Carbon pricing policies can help achieve climate objectives and deliver significant revenue generation.
Keywords:
B. GHG emission; climate change adaptation; address climate change; C. long-term debt sustainability; copyright page; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Climate finance; Europe
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
Pierpaolo Grippa
,
William Oman
, and
Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean