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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 15 items for :

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) Mission (July 15–19, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from July 15–19, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) to develop new processes and methods for the compilation of the House Price Index (HPI). This was the second mission of a project that commenced in April 2024. The mission worked closely with the authorities to (i) develop R scripts to clean the listings data received from an online real estate platform, (ii) implement updated methods for index compilation, and (iii) increase the capacity of the SSSU staff.
Keywords:
House Price Index; Residential Real Estate Price Index; Macroeconomic Statistics; Real Estate; Housing Market; Property Values; Price Appreciation; Inflation; Economic Indicators; Residential Properties; Ukraine.; IMF's statistics department; Property price index; section I.; IMF executive directors; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; OLX data; Export fluctuations; Real estate prices; Land prices; Data processing; Data collection
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Residential Property Price Index Mission (April 8–12, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from April 8–12, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) with a methodological review of their House Price Index (HPI). The mission assessed the existing data and methodology used for the compilation of the HPI and made recommendations for improvements as required, in line with international statistical standards. The mission completed the following tasks: (i) undertake a review of the listings data collected by the SSSU and the data preparation being applied, (ii) assess the stratification and hedonic methods used for the HPI, (iii) review the weights and aggregation procedures used to compile the national index, (iv) provide guidance on the dissemination of the HPI, and (v) provide practical training to staff in the SSSU.
Keywords:
RPPI; Residential Property Price Index (RPPI); property prices; real estate prices; macroeconomic statistics; macroprudential policy; financial sector risks.; IMF executive directors; World Bank staff; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; listings data; weight information; Price indexes; Data collection; Land prices; House price indexes; Export fluctuations
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights impact of high-energy prices on Germany’s potential output. The surge in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a contraction in the energy-intensive sector’s production, while the nonenergy intensive sector’s industrial production has remained resilient. Permanently higher energy prices could reduce Germany’s potential output, but some of the impact is expected to be offset by firms’ endogenous response to improving energy efficiency. Some decline in Germany’s potential output level because of higher energy prices is likely unavoidable. However, good policies can help mitigate this loss and avoid exacerbating it. Increased energy efficiency is key to mitigating the adverse effects of the energy price shock. Higher labor and capital productivity can help offset output losses from higher energy prices. Government policy can help boost productivity by fostering innovation and human capital development, as discussed in more detail in the 2023 and previous year’s Article IV reports. Government interventions can help direct the transition to cleaner energy. It is important that Germany respond to the energy shock in ways that also support the green transition, given Germany’s goals to significantly reduce its CO2 emissions.
Keywords:
baseline energy price path; housing market crash scenario; house prices in Germany; reference scenario; price effect; BORROWER-BASED MACROPRUDENTIAL instruments in Germany; Energy prices; Housing prices; Energy conservation; Mortgages; Loans; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Residential Property Price Developments and (Mis)alignments in Cyprus
Robert C. M. Beyer
and
Nina Biljanovska
Residential house prices in Cyprus show no signs of overvaluation in international comparison, and various indicators confirm that prices are aligned with economic fundamentals. However, still-high household debt poses a risk. Regional disparities raise some concerns about affordability, notably in Limassol, calling for supply-side measures to increase housing supply.
Keywords:
Cyprus; Residential Housing Prices; Housing Debt; Limassol; property price development; house price trend; household debt; C. debt vulnerability; default probability; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Land prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Danish economy recovered strongly from the pandemic. Economic activity is set to soften in the first half of 2023, followed by a gradual recovery. Denmark’s recovery from the pandemic was impressive, but strong output and employment growth has contributed to inflationary pressures. Gross domestic product growth is expected to slow in 2023, while inflation will remain elevated in the near term. Risks to growth are broadly balanced while upside risks dominate inflation. Near-term fiscal policy should support disinflation, given persistently elevated inflation. There is uncertainty regarding the contractionary effects assumed in the fiscal plan, while positive output gaps and high inflation are expected in the near term. Medium-term fiscal policy should be recalibrated as needed to adhere to the fiscal rules. The structural balance will weaken to a deficit over the medium term mainly due to defense and demographic-related spending.
Keywords:
government finance statistics data; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; consumer price index inflation; data provision; upside risk; Inflation; Housing prices; Fiscal stance; Mortgages; Securities; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cyprus: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the causes and implications of elevated inflation in Cyprus and describes recent inflation trends. The paper also analyses drivers of inflation in with an augmented Phillips Curve and investigates how wages adjust to inflation. Estimating a pass-through from inflation shocks to wages can further help assess domestic price pressures. Fiscal policies should help containing price pressures. While external developments drove inflation dynamics in 2022, domestic developments will increasingly determine inflation going forward. Given the historical pass-through, wage pressures are expected to intensify this year, aggravated by labor market tightness. Fiscal policy should hence support the battle against inflation, while protecting vulnerable households, which have been impacted disproportionally by the cost-of-living crisis. Spending plans in the 2023 budget are sufficiently tight to help contain inflation pressures from aggregate demand. Any upwards, revisions to the automatic cost-of-living allowance would risk sustaining high inflation and weakening the economy structurally.
Keywords:
C. inflation driver; inflation expectation; inflation trend; E. inflation outlook; wage pass-through; Inflation; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Energy pricing; Europe; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, April 2023
Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, April 2023
Europe’s Balancing Act: Taming Inflation without a Recession
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth has tumbled across Europe, inflation remains too high, and financial sector risks have materialized. Taming sticky inflation while avoiding financial stress and a recession will require tighter macroeconomic policies—tailored to changing financial conditions, stronger financial regulation and supervision, and bolder supply-side reforms that heal scars from the COVID-19 and energy crises.

Keywords:
Europe; regional outlook; economic growth; recession; financial stability; inflation; Russia’s war in Ukraine; COVID-19; financial sector risks; financial stress; financial regulation; energy; Türkiye earthquakes; housing market risks; Taylor Rule; European banking sector; labor; fiscal policy; monetary policy; financial policy; recovery; European economy; inflation expectation; rate surprise; growth-inflation trade-off; headline inflation; ECB monetary policy; price cap; central bank inflation target; target rule; inflation risk; Energy prices; Central bank policy rate; Inflation targeting; Housing prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands–the Netherlands: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands–the Netherlands
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is posing new challenges, but the Netherlands has suffered a smaller decline in the terms of trade compared to the rest of the euro area. Growth is projected to slow to 0.6 percent in 2023 from 4.2 percent in 2022, as high inflation weighs on consumption, external demand wanes, and financial conditions tighten. Over the medium term, growth will be underpinned by public investment and reforms. Headline inflation is expected to moderate in 2023 with the activation of the energy price ceiling, while core inflation is projected to peak in 2023 at about 7.3 percent. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 2.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, mainly reflecting government measures to cushion the impact of high-energy prices and the economic slowdown. However, the Dutch fiscal position remains strong, with the public debt to GDP ratio expected to remain below 50 percent over the medium term.
Keywords:
government Finance statistics yearbook; energy inflation; potential GDP; price signal; housing supply policy; Energy prices; Inflation; Housing prices; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Australia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that with a rapid post-pandemic economic recovery and favorable terms of trade, Australia has reached a stronger cyclical position than many other advanced economies, with limited scarring. Inflation has risen to significantly above target, prompting decisive monetary policy tightening. Financial conditions have since tightened, and housing prices started declining from their peak. Australia is on a narrow path to a soft landing. Growth is expected to slow to 1.6 percent in 2023 from 3.6 percent in 2022 as higher interest rates and weaker global growth cut into domestic demand and net exports. Inflation is projected to decelerate slowly toward the 2-3 percent inflation target by the end of 2024. Downside risks to the economic outlook dominate, with significant uncertainty regarding global growth, commodity prices, and domestic developments surrounding wages, housing prices, and the effect of tighter monetary conditions. Structural policies can help foster sustainable, equitable and inclusive growth. The new climate change mitigation targets should be supported with strong policies, while continued structural reform efforts can help address the labor productivity slowdown and achieve greater inclusion.
Keywords:
CPI expenditure weight; inflation expectation; CPI indicator; ABS implementation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; volume terms; Inflation; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Financial statements; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Lithuania highlights the recent spike in global energy and food prices and persistent supply bottlenecks have compounded inflationary pressures, disproportionately hurting the poor. The authorities’ response to the energy crisis aims to limit economic disruptions, provide targeted support to the vulnerable, and allow for market price signals. Higher revenues from inflation allow the budget to accommodate pressures for higher social and defense spending in the short-term, but difficult tradeoffs await down the road. The banking system has ample capital and liquidity buffers to withstand a weakening economic environment or even greater shocks. Further efforts are needed to mitigate money laundering risks in the financial sector, particularly from the dynamic and growing fintech sector. A comprehensive carbon tax will be necessary to achieve the authorities’ emission reduction objectives for 2030. Structural reforms are necessary to ensure continued income convergence. The authorities need to address structural impediments by accelerating reforms in education and healthcare, and by closing gaps in the transportation infrastructure, and reducing information asymmetries that limit access to financing for small and medium enterprises.
Keywords:
potential GDP; wage-price spiral; price inflation; inflation development; foreign currency; Inflation; Energy prices; Loans; Wages; Real estate prices; Global; Western Europe