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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Italian economy has weathered well the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, growing by 3.7 percent in 2022. Private consumption rose robustly on recovery in employment, buoyant tourism, and extensive fiscal support of real purchasing power. Growth in services and construction offset weakness in manufacturing, especially in energy-intensive industries affected by high-energy prices. Consumer prices increased, largely on surging energy prices, financial conditions tightened considerably and yields on Italian government bonds have risen as monetary policy tightened. Growth is expected to enter a slower phase and downside risks dominate the outlook. Growth is forecast to moderate to 1.1 percent in 2023 and to 0.9 percent in 2024, and then to pick up temporarily to 1.1 percent in 2025. Headline inflation is projected to decline steeply to 5.2 percent in 2023 and to 2.5 percent in 2024, driven by lower energy and food prices.
Keywords:
headline inflation; money market rate; private sector liquidity; current account norm; potential GDP; export market shares; liability positions vis-a-vis nonresident; Energy prices; Tax allowances; Loans; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Austria is highly vulnerable to spillovers from the war in Ukraine given its high dependence on energy imports from Russia, deep integration into global value chains, and large banking exposures. After high growth in the first half of 2022, growth is projected to fall sharply through 2023 due to impact of the war and the related energy crisis. Over the medium term, annual growth is projected to stabilize around 1¾ percent. However, output will remain below the pre-crisis trend. Uncertainty is extraordinarily high with significant downside risks.
Keywords:
gas storage; staff appraisal; staff projection; gas reserve; HICP regulation; External sector statistics; Personal income tax; Inflation; Labor markets; Energy prices; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Reducing Social Security Contributions and Improving the Corporate and Small Business Tax System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses four key issues, which are closely connected, on tax policy in Ukraine. These issues are social security contribution (SSC), the simplified tax regime for small taxpayers, the corporate profit tax, and excise tax. Ukraine's SSC rates are very high, which are associated with an oversized informal sector that erodes the tax base, while the simplified tax regime for small taxpayers provides inordinate benefits that weaken the tax system and is prone to abuse. Corporate profit tax revenue has declined to its lowest level since 2006 and is now well below the regional average. Excise taxes have become an important revenue source, but remain low by international standards.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; excise tax; SSC rate; tax burden; single tax; tax rate; low income; flat rate; reduction coefficient; SSC revenue; ST regime; retail price; Income; Excises; Personal income tax; Value-added tax; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Reducing Social Security Contributions and Improving the Corporate and Small Business Tax System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Social Security Contributions (SSC) in Ukraine need urgent attention. If nothing is done, the budget is poised to lose 4.5 percent of GDP in revenues in 2016 due to a legally mandated SSC rate reduction adopted in March 2015. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is studying a number of options to find a responsible, revenue neutral, approach to lowering SSC rates, which at 40 percent of payroll are above all countries in the OECD. At the same time, Ukraine hosts a very large informal sector which stands as a difficult obstacle to developing its social and economic potential. However, there is no fiscal space to forgo tax revenues. The shift of the tax burden away from labor (as recommended by previous FAD missions) cannot jeopardize the integrity of public finances; it needs compensation from reliable sources of tax revenues. A closely connected issue is the Single Tax System (STS) originally designed for small entrepreneurs, but which has become very porous to others. The regime allows qualifying taxpayers to pay a very low tax on income and a symbolic SSC fee, and offers ample opportunities for avoidance by employers who contract their workers as independent entrepreneurs. To restore horizontal equity with regular employees, the STS requires fundamental reform, addressing: a (turnover) cap for the STS that is too high, a system that effectively overrides the VAT threshold, unnecessarily admits legal persons and offers important tax and SSC incentives for employees to reclassify as independent entrepreneurs – a practice that is currently very difficult to combat due to poor rules and enforcement practices. However, the revenue potential here should not be exaggerated given the difficulty in taxing this segment of the population.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; excise tax; SSC rate; tax burden; single tax; tax rate
Cover Tax Reform in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Tax Reform in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Liam P. Ebrill

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the recent revenue performance in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and a survey of these countries efforts to modify tax policy in line with the needs of increasingly market-oriented economies and to increase the effectiveness of tax administration. It focuses principally on the 12 countries of the CIS, but refers also to the Baltic countries, and addresses the period from 1995 to mid-1998, prior to the August 1998 financial crisis in Russia.

Keywords:
OP; country; revenue action plans; government; cash revenue; GDP ratio; CIS country; revenue performance; Tax administration core functions; Tax collection; Tax law; Payroll tax; Baltics