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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for West African Economic and Monetary Union
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAEMU) report on Common Policies for Member Countries. The WAEMU’s post-coronavirus disease 2019 recovery has withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly due to supportive macroeconomic policies and favorable initial macroeconomic conditions. Growth prospects remain favorable and the financial system appears resilient. However, the WAEMU faces important risks and challenges associated with rising inflation, more limited access to international capital markets, eroding external reserve buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks. It is urgent to design a credible fiscal strategy anchoring debt sustainability, based on clear and adequate deficit and debt regional ceilings. Further monetary tightening seems warranted unless large risks that second-round effects may derail inflation dissipate. Progress in regional reforms and development projects should be accelerated. Structural reforms to foster productivity growth and private investment are crucial to counteract possible scarring effects of the Covid-shock and facilitate intra-regional transactions, particularly in the areas of energy, digital and physical infrastructure, and food resilience. More coordination and pooled resources to implement regional development projects are essential.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; authorities of the West African Economic and Monetary Union; WAEMU economy; policy decision making; monetary policy mix; WAEMU population; Inflation; Government debt management; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Staff Report on Common Policies for Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for West African Economic and Monetary Union
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The WAEMU’s post-Covid-19 recovery has so far withstood the new global and regional shocks, partly owing to supportive fiscal and monetary policies as well as relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals over the previous decade. Growth prospects remain favorable, reserves—albeit declining—remain adequate, and the financial system appears to be resilient. However, the region faces important challenges associated with rising inflation, limited access to international capital markets, eroding external buffers, and regional security issues, in the presence of elevated global risks.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; authorities of the West African Economic and Monetary Union; WAEMU economy; policy decision making; monetary policy mix; WAEMU population; Inflation; Government debt management; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Episodes of domestic policy uncertainty and acute market pressures in mid- 2022, coupled with a more challenging global environment, necessitated firmer program implementation and stronger policy reaction to ensure macroeconomic stability, rebuild policy credibility, and safeguard program objectives. Initial decisive actions and strengthened commitments by the new economic team since early-August have started to stabilized markets, although the situation is fragile as reserve coverage remains low while inflation is unanchored and stands at multi-year highs. The review discussions focused on assessing recent progress, updating the macroeconomic framework, and reaching understandings on a solid policy package to durably restore stability and achieve the program objectives.
Keywords:
central bank financing; NDF market; financing of the federal government; non-deliverable futures; policy credibility; Inflation; International reserves; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Premia on State-Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Taehoon Kim
, and
Antoine Levy
State-contingent debt instruments such as GDP-linked warrants have garnered attention as a potential tool to help debt-stressed economies smooth repayments over business cycles, yet very few studies of the empirical properties of these instruments exist. This paper develops a general f ramework to estimate the time-varying risk premium of a state-contingent sovereign debt instrument. Our estimation framework applied to GDP-linked warrants issued by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine reveals three stylized facts: (i) the risk premium in state-contingent instruments is high and persistent; (ii) the risk premium exhibits a pro-cyclical pattern; and (iii) the liquidity premium is higher and more volatile than that for plain-vanilla government bonds issued by the same sovereign. We then present a model in which investors fear ambiguity and that can account for the cyclical properties of the risk premium.
Keywords:
State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked warrants; Risk premia; Procyclicality; liquidity premium; GDP-linked warrant; estimation framework; SCDI premium; Sovereign bonds; Securities; Bonds; Liquidity; Debt restructuring; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Charles Cohen
,
S. M. Ali Abbas
,
Anthony Myrvin
,
Tom Best
,
Mr. Peter Breuer
,
Hui Miao
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Eriko Togo
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.
Keywords:
Sovereign debt restructuring; Pandemic; COVID-19; Global financial crisis; Sovereign debt default; State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked debt; natural disasters clauses; debt sustainability; value recovery instruments; natural disaster clauses; reference variable; debt contract; investor preference; GLW payment; VRI payout; sector debt suspension; investor appetite; debt stock; Eurobond investor; trading partner; upside payout; investor participation; Natural disasters; Bonds; Debt restructuring; Securities; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
You Are Suffocating Me! Firm-Level Evidence on Crowding Out
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm level; so; firm FE; Fixed investment; state-owned enterprises; crowding-out effect; firm-level analysis; dataset consist; nonfinancial company; firm investment; SOE density; Private investment; Public enterprises; Government debt management; Revenue sharing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Regulation of Market Abuse and Issuer Disclosure Requirements
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance report examines regulation of market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements in Ukraine. The Ukrainian regulatory framework for market abuse and issuer disclosure requirements has significant gaps, whose impact is compounded by the National Securities and Stock Market Commission’s (NSSMC) lack of sufficient supervisory, investigative, and enforcement powers. This has contributed to overall lack of transparency and widespread misconduct in the market, including through issuance and trading of “fictitious” securities. To address the current challenges, the Ukrainian legislation needs to be aligned with the international standards to provide the NSSMC with sufficient means to require enhanced disclosures and combat market abuse.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IOSCO principle; Eu legislation; NSSMC regulation; draft legislation; MAR law; insider dealing; Securities; Securities markets; Securities regulation; Stock markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Self-Funding of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses the self-funding model of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) in Ukraine. There are a number of challenges with NSSMC’s funding and the constraints placed on it through the Ukrainian government budget process. The analysis conducted by the NSSMC and reviewed by the mission confirms the general benefits of moving to a self-funding model for the NSSMC. The legislative measures should be complemented by improvements in the NSSMC systems and processes. Self-funding of securities and other financial services regulators is increasingly becoming the international norm. The trend to self-funding is even more pronounced within Europe.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fee revenue; supervision fee; market participant; fee payer; fee regime; NSSMC estimate; Budget planning and preparation; Securities markets; Securities; Personal income; Minimum wages; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report - Enhancing the Powers and Independence of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures to enhance the powers and independence of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) in Ukraine. The NSSMC faces significant challenges in its role as the regulator of the Ukrainian securities market. Market activity has been shrinking over the past few years, but misconduct—such as issuance and trading of “fictitious” securities—prevails. Key changes needed relate to enhancing the NSSMC’s ability to conduct investigations of and demand information from any legal or natural person, have access to information otherwise restricted by secrecy laws, assist foreign authorities even without an apparent violation of the Ukrainian securities laws, and maintain the confidentiality of information exchanged under the Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IOSCO principle; NSSMC chairman; enforcement activity; independence law; NSSMC's funding; use of resource; Budget planning and preparation; Securities markets; Legal support in revenue administration; Securities regulation; Securities
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Development in Emerging Europe: The Unfinished Agenda
Ms. Edda Zoli
This paper assesses the status of financial development in Emerging Europe, analyzes the factors that have shaped it, and discusses policy priorities. Financial development has progressed to varying degrees across the region. Macroeconomic stability and institutional quality have been important factors. Going forward, the EU integration process is likely to propel further reforms and shape financial development in EU members. In non-EU emerging economies the focus should be on maintaining macroeconomic stability and strengthening law enforceability. Creating a well-functioning government securities market, reinforcing corporate governance and creditor rights protection, and promoting the emergence of institutional investors would be beneficial.
Keywords:
WP; yield curve; market; liberalization; institutional investor