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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 278 items for :

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Aligning the Stabilizing Expenditure Rule to the European Union Fiscal Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Expenditure rule; Fiscal rule; Correction mechanism; EU economic governance; fiscal framework; Debt; Expenditure baseline; Republic of Poland.; SER limit; net expenditure path; EU net expenditure indicator; expenditure path; Fiscal rules; EU governance framework; Fiscal governance; Fiscal councils; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores drivers of inflation and monetary policy in Georgia. Inflation spiked in Georgia following the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. A positive output gap indicates that high demand is generating inflationary pressure in the economy. Estimates suggest tighter monetary policy in 2021 helped significantly lower peak inflation in 2022. One response to uncertainty is for monetary policy makers to act more cautiously – responding less vigorously with monetary policy to shocks. Given the challenges in managing inflation in a highly dollarized, small open-economy prone to large external shocks, it is important to look at the drivers of inflation in Georgia, the monetary policy stance including the natural rate, the transmission mechanism including the impact of dollarization, and the appropriate monetary policy path going forward. Using a range of approaches, IMF establish that monetary policy in Georgia is effective, that it is close to neutral, and that heightened uncertainty supports a gradual policy normalization.
Keywords:
commodity import price index; Georgia population projection; trend inflation; IMF staff calculation; inflation projection; Inflation; Labor markets; Unemployment; Employment; Central Asia; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Georgia’s economic performance remains robust. Growth has moderated from double digits but remains high, inflation is low, and fiscal and financial buffers are healthy. EU candidate status has boosted sentiment, but the global environment remains highly uncertain due to ongoing conflicts and shifting geo-economic patterns. Georgia should continue to strengthen its resilience to adverse shocks by maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and boost its growth potential by addressing long-standing structural challenges, capitalizing on new economic opportunities, and making decisive progress toward EU accession. Modest further fiscal adjustment is appropriate in the medium term, to build sufficient buffers under the fiscal rule and create room for productive spending. Monetary policy normalization should proceed gradually and cautiously, to ensure core inflation remains close to target. Continued exchange rate flexibility, reserve build-up, and financial sector vigilance are essential to guard against risks, including from capital inflows, virtual assets, and sanctions. Structural reforms are needed to achieve stronger, more inclusive, and job-rich growth.
Keywords:
EU candidate status; NBG website; NBG foreign exchange auction; SBA program; NBG governance; rate hike; Inflation; Fiscal risks; Loans; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issue paper documents the recent episode of food inflation and food insecurity in Belize. The paper also overviews what policies were announced in Belize and the Caribbean during the recent cost-of-living crisis; and discusses the policies Belize could implement to protect its most vulnerable households from the threat of food insecurity going forward. It discusses the appropriate policies to protect vulnerable households from food price inflation going forward based on economic theory and best practices and estimates how much it would cost the government of Belize to protect the vulnerable population against a rise in food prices like the one in 2022. The authorities should evaluate the impact of the recent policy that regulates mark-ups on essential goods by wholesale and retail operators when they have sufficient data. The limits on the mark-up for 32 essential goods were introduced to limit the increase in food prices and avoid monopolistic practices.
Keywords:
food inflation; staff ream; debt target; cost of living crisis; B. food inflation; food inflation in Belize; price signals work; Food prices; Food security; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Stress Testing the Central Bank Balance Sheet and Developing Hedging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This CD engagement covered two distinct areas to help the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) deliver on its price stability mandate, it: 1) provided a forward-looking analysis of the NBG’s balance sheet to assess its policy solvency and to help institutionalize such a process, and 2) outlined a strategy to develop hedging instruments in interest rate and foreign exchange (FX) markets to support monetary policy transmission. With virtually no interest-bearing liabilities, the NBG balance sheet is robust. Under the adverse shock, it improves on account of FX revaluation gains. Higher inflation also helps, since the need for a higher policy rate generates larger domestic interest income. Institutionalizing this analysis allows for early warning of the need to reduce dividend payments (or for re-capitalization) thereby supporting operational independence. Georgia has made good progress on many of the enabling conditions for developing hedging markets, but several structural factors provide challenges. A supportive regulatory environment is in place, market infrastructure is robust, and there is a range of instruments available to serve as the underlying instrument for derivatives. However, there is a lack of heterogeneity of financial risk profile and appetite amongst participants. Recommendations include setting up a standardized FX forward trading platform, pushing for upgrades of banks’ treasury management systems, supporting the targeted education and training efforts of the Georgian Financial Markets Treasuries Association, revising the current FX forward index to be more informative by publishing outright transacted rates; and publishing Overnight Indexed Swap benchmarks.
Keywords:
Georgia; Monetary policy transmission; Central bank policy solvency; Central bank independence; Financial market development; Foreign exchange markets; Money markets.; NBG balance sheet; hedging market; Department mission; market infrastructure; request of the National Bank of Georgia; Financial statements; Hedging; Currency markets; Exchange rate risk; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Policy Reform Proposals To Promote The Fund’s Capacity To Support Countries Undertaking Debt Restructuring
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
A number of sovereign debt restructurings over the past three years faced significant delays but the cases are now moving forward. These delays slowed access of countries to much needed Fund financial support, and alongside creditors’ efforts the Fund had to find ways forward. With significant experience now gleaned from recent restructuring cases, it is important to extract the lessons for Fund policies from this episode. Delays in future Fund engagements need to be minimized where this can be done in a manner consistent with restoring the member to medium-term external viability and ensuring adequate safeguards for the Fund. Such delays can contribute to a deepening of debt distress, making adjustment more difficult, exacerbating the debt problem, and creating inefficiency costs for both the debtor and its creditors.
Keywords:
support countries undertaking debt restructuring; policy reform proposal; Fund policy; fund policy; draft Executive Board understanding; Debt restructuring; Arrears; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Emergency assistance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
Keywords:
Non-concessionary; Lending; Risks; Reserves; Credit; Mitigation; Provisioning; management framework; income risk; concentration risk; Fund credit; I. financial risks; demand scenario; lending portfolio; Credit risk; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Market risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo: Demande d’un accord de 42 mois au titre de la facilité élargie de crédit-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; analyse de viabilité de la dette; annexe d’information; déclaration de l’administrateur pour le Togo
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Bien que sa croissance ait bien résisté aux chocs ces dernières années, le Togo fait face à un niveau élevé d’insécurité alimentaire et d’attaques terroristes, et ses besoins en matière de développement demeurent considérables. Les déficits budgétaires et la dette ont augmenté, ce qui a eu pour effet d’annuler la baisse de l’endettement obtenue au cours de la période de l’accord FEC de 2017–20, de réduire la marge de manoeuvre budgétaire et les réserves permettant d’absorber les chocs, et de contribuer aux vulnérabilités au sein de l’Union économique et monétaire ouestafricaine (UEMOA). Deux banques sous-capitalisées, l’une publique et l’autre récemment privatisée, font peser des risques sur la stabilité du secteur financier et sur les finances publiques. Les autorités sollicitent un soutien financier de 200 % de la quote-part du Togo (293,60 millions de DTS) dans le cadre d’un accord au titre de la FEC d’une durée de 42 mois.
Keywords:
Objectif du programme ECF; Le Fonds; Accord ECF; Programme ECF; un soutien financier; fonction gouvernementale; la viabilité de la dette; Banques commerciales; Global; Afrique occidentale.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Third Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria. The EFF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program, which has remained on track despite extremely challenging circumstances due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The authorities also met all structural benchmarks through end-February, underscoring their continuing commitment to an ambitious reform agenda. The Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver for nonobservance of the December performance criterion on tax revenues, which was missed by a minor amount. The ongoing war continues to strain Ukraine’s public finances. External disbursements on appropriate concessional terms, together with strong domestic resource mobilization are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs and secure fiscal and debt sustainability. Stronger revenue mobilization, underpinned by the recently approved National Revenue Strategy, while avoiding measures that erode the tax base, will be critical to secure fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
budget financing needs; support program; General government finance; FX cash market stability support; baseline financing gap; inflation moderate; budget support grant; SOE state ownership Policy; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; International reserves; Global