Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 43 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Financial markets x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Stress Testing the Central Bank Balance Sheet and Developing Hedging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This CD engagement covered two distinct areas to help the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) deliver on its price stability mandate, it: 1) provided a forward-looking analysis of the NBG’s balance sheet to assess its policy solvency and to help institutionalize such a process, and 2) outlined a strategy to develop hedging instruments in interest rate and foreign exchange (FX) markets to support monetary policy transmission. With virtually no interest-bearing liabilities, the NBG balance sheet is robust. Under the adverse shock, it improves on account of FX revaluation gains. Higher inflation also helps, since the need for a higher policy rate generates larger domestic interest income. Institutionalizing this analysis allows for early warning of the need to reduce dividend payments (or for re-capitalization) thereby supporting operational independence. Georgia has made good progress on many of the enabling conditions for developing hedging markets, but several structural factors provide challenges. A supportive regulatory environment is in place, market infrastructure is robust, and there is a range of instruments available to serve as the underlying instrument for derivatives. However, there is a lack of heterogeneity of financial risk profile and appetite amongst participants. Recommendations include setting up a standardized FX forward trading platform, pushing for upgrades of banks’ treasury management systems, supporting the targeted education and training efforts of the Georgian Financial Markets Treasuries Association, revising the current FX forward index to be more informative by publishing outright transacted rates; and publishing Overnight Indexed Swap benchmarks.
Keywords:
Georgia; Monetary policy transmission; Central bank policy solvency; Central bank independence; Financial market development; Foreign exchange markets; Money markets.; NBG balance sheet; hedging market; Department mission; market infrastructure; request of the National Bank of Georgia; Financial statements; Hedging; Currency markets; Exchange rate risk; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Lucia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that St. Lucia’s tourist-dependent economy has rebounded strongly after the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the commodity import price shock due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Output is currently near the pre-pandemic level, while higher government revenue has narrowed the fiscal deficit. The gross domestic product growth projection in 2023, at 3.2 percent, is lower than 2022 as tourism demand continues the recovery and the economy approaches the existing production capacity. Afterward, it is projected to gradually decline toward a potential rate of 1.5 percent in the medium-term. With output approaching full recovery, the priority is to start rebuilding fiscal and financial buffers and place public debt on a solid downward trend, anchored on the regional debt ceiling, through growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and fiscal rules. In the banking sector, it is important to reach full compliance with the regional central bank’s provisioning requirements. The momentum of reforms to address disincentives to bank lending should be maintained by passing legislation to expedite loan collateral appropriation. Draft legislation to strengthen the regulation and supervision of credit unions should be passed, and the planned asset quality review carried forward.
Keywords:
CARTAC TA; St. Lucia economy; CARTAC country; full employment; investment portfolio; Credit bureaus; Credit; External sector statistics; Global; Caribbean
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, November 2023
Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Keywords:
inflation; growth; monetary policy; labor; headline inflation; core inflation; coverage ratio; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; capitalization rate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Central bank policy rate; Energy prices; Labor markets; Europe; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2023
World Economic Outlook, October 2023
Navigating Global Divergences
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.

Keywords:
global growth; inflation; economic projection; inflation expectations; monetary policy; geoeconomic fragmentation; commodity prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi
,
Chiara Maggi
,
Alexandre Sollaci
,
Martin Stuermer
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper studies the economic impact of fragmentation of commodity trade. We assemble a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of the 48 most important energy, mineral and agricultural commodities. We develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess which commodity markets are most vulnerable in the event of trade disruptions and the economic risks that they pose. We find that commodity trade fragmentation – which has accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – could cause large price changes and price volatility for many commodities. Mineral markets critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets appear among the most vulnerable in the hypothetical segmentation of the world into two geopolitical blocs examined in the paper. Trade disruptions result in heterogeneous impacts on economic surplus across countries. However, due to offsetting effects across commodity producing and consuming countries, surplus losses appear modest at the global level.
Keywords:
Commodities; international trade; sanctions; spillovers; prices; geoeconomic fragmentation; trade disruption; price change; commodity producer; net-commodity-importing country; trade fragmentation; Commodity markets; Commodity price fluctuations; Agricultural commodities; Inflation; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Andrea Medici
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Marina M. Tavares
, and
Bella Yao
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Keywords:
policy trade-off; climate policy stringency; policy space; policy action; developing economy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Structural reforms; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting Covid Scarring in Emerging Markets
Chris Jackson
and
Jason Lu
The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in large and persistent losses in economic output, known as scarring. These losses were expected to be more severe in Emerging Markets than in Advanced Economies. This paper examines the impact of Covid on output in Emerging Markets so far and its implications for projections of economic scarring. While Covid has had a material impact on activity, the recovery has been stronger than initially expected. We find that these positive data surprises have over time been treated increasingly as transitory rather than a signal for the state of scarring. Second, we show that the composition of output losses has been qualitatively different from past last shocks. History suggests that the main driver of scarring is weak productivity. Covid losses, however, have so far been more skewed to employment with a smaller than usual impact on productivity. We argue that these findings suggest that scarring, while substantial, may be ultimately less severe than initially feared, at least over the medium term. We provide alternative sets of medium-term projections to indicate potential magnitudes.
Keywords:
COVID-19; scarring; medium-term output; Emerging Markets; output loss; GDP growth data; revisiting Covid; POST-Covid GDP loss; scarring estimate; Total factor productivity; Employment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Wages; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Request for a 38-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burundi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Burundi’s Request for a 38-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Burundi faces protracted balance of payments needs with a widening current account deficit and low foreign reserves coverage, large development needs, and macroeconomic challenges triggered by spillovers from the war in Ukraine and domestic climate shocks and livestock sanitary crisis. The 38-month arrangement under the ECF will help cushion Burundi’s adjustment and support the authorities’ reform agenda aimed at reducing debt vulnerabilities, recalibrating exchange rate and monetary policies to restore external sustainability, and strengthening inclusive economic growth and governance. Under the ECF arrangement, the authorities aim to recalibrate Burundi’s macroeconomic policy mix. They plan to restore external sustainability with the unification of the official and parallel exchange rate markets and foreign exchange market liberalization, while being attuned to financial sector vulnerabilities. They will strengthen debt sustainability and achieve a better-quality fiscal consolidation path through higher domestic revenue mobilization, scaled-up investment and better targeted spending, and prudent borrowing.
Keywords:
year contract; Burundian authorities; coordination committee; FX market liberalization; policy reform; anchor inflation expectation; Currency markets; Africa; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Temporary Modifications to The Fund’s Annual and Cumulative Access Limits
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
In light of current elevated uncertainty and challenges in the global economy, the IMF has temporarily increased the limits on access in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA) to 200 percent of a member’s quota annually and 600 percent of quota cumulatively (from 145 and 435 percent of quota previously, respectively, last set in 2016). These changes will be in place for 12 months and, if circumstances warrant, the Executive Board may consider extending them further before their expiration. Regarding the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), the paper proposes that the Executive Board reviews PRGT access limits once sufficient subsidy resources have been pledged to the PRGT. The impact on GRA resources and risks to the Fund from the proposed changes are expected to be manageable.
Keywords:
access limit; executive board review PRGT access; PRGT resource; PRGT access metrics; concessional financing arm; Credit; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit risk; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Request for 42-Month Arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Volatile commodity prices and a tightly managed exchange rate (ER) have led to boom and bust cycles with significant impacts on the public and financial sectors. While the previous Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (December 2017—March 2021) has helped maintain macroeconomic stability, the pandemic has delayed structural reform implementation and widened the gap to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In addition, surging international commodity prices since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine have deteriorated the external and fiscal balances and led to inflationary pressures and food insecurity. In March 2021, the authorities requested a successor arrangement to support accelerated implementation of their national development strategy, help increase social and infrastructure spending, and improve governance and the business environment.
Keywords:
development effort; Medium-term policy priority; Mauritanian authorities; commodity price movement; IMF arrangement; AIV policy recommendation; Operational risk; Debt sustainability analysis; Currency markets; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa