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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 29 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-September quantitative performance criteria and structural benchmarks. Economic growth in 2024 has been upgraded given better than expected resilience to the energy shocks. However, a slowdown is expected in 2025 due to an increasingly tight labor market, the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and continued uncertainty about the war. The financial sector remains stable, but vigilance is needed given heightened risks. Progress on strengthening bank resolution and risk-based supervision, stress-testing frameworks and contingency planning should be sustained. Sustained reform momentum, progress at domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and improve governance.
Keywords:
core inflation basket; Ukrenergo's government; national bank of Ukraine; supervisory board; inflation expectation; Budget planning and preparation; Inflation; International reserves; Debt sustainability; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Fifth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criterion, Rephasing of Access, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s economy remains resilient, and performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria and completed four structural benchmarks. Looking ahead, the recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high. Preparedness is necessary to enable appropriate policy action should risks materialize. Continued exchange rate flexibility under the managed exchange rate regime will help strengthen the resilience of the economy to external shocks. Sustained reform momentum, domestic revenue mobilization, and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms.
Keywords:
downside Scenario financing gap; IMF staff estimate; C. financing Needs; budget financing needs; baseline scenario financing gap; authorities' intention; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Sovereign bonds; International reserves; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay. The Ukrainian economy continues to be resilient although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Sustained reform momentum and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms to lay the path to European Union accession. Timely and predictable external disbursements together with strong domestic resource mobilization and careful liquidity management are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs. Fiscal policies for the remainder of 2024, together with preparation for the 2025 budget, should be underpinned by steadfast revenue mobilization efforts aligned with the National Revenue Strategy.
Keywords:
ESBU head; ESBU law; staff appraisal; ESBU's role; investigative power; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Third Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s Third Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modifications of Performance Criteria. The EFF continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program, which has remained on track despite extremely challenging circumstances due to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The authorities also met all structural benchmarks through end-February, underscoring their continuing commitment to an ambitious reform agenda. The Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver for nonobservance of the December performance criterion on tax revenues, which was missed by a minor amount. The ongoing war continues to strain Ukraine’s public finances. External disbursements on appropriate concessional terms, together with strong domestic resource mobilization are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs and secure fiscal and debt sustainability. Stronger revenue mobilization, underpinned by the recently approved National Revenue Strategy, while avoiding measures that erode the tax base, will be critical to secure fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
budget financing needs; support program; General government finance; FX cash market stability support; baseline financing gap; inflation moderate; budget support grant; SOE state ownership Policy; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting the Law: Artificial Intelligence Findings from the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database
Khaled AlAjmi
,
Jose Deodoro
,
Mr. Ashraf Khan
, and
Kei Moriya
Using the 2010, 2015, and 2020/2021 datasets of the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database (CBLD), we explore artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches to analyzing patterns in central bank legislation. Our findings highlight that: (i) a simple Naïve Bayes algorithm can link CBLD search categories with a significant and increasing level of accuracy to specific articles and phrases in articles in laws (i.e., predict search classification); (ii) specific patterns or themes emerge across central bank legislation (most notably, on central bank governance, central bank policy and operations, and central bank stakeholders and transparency); and (iii) other AI/ML approaches yield interesting results, meriting further research.
Keywords:
central bank legislation; central banking; artificial intelligence; machine learning; Bayesian algorithm; Boolean algorithm; central bank governance; law and economics; ML approach; IMF central bank transparency code; IMF Central Bank Legislation Database; capital markets Department; approaches to analyzing pattern; CBLD data flow; Central bank autonomy; Central bank transparency; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Special Drawing Rights Allocation—Ex-Post Assessment Report
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This report follows up on the impact of the historic $650 billion 2021 SDR allocation on the global economy, documenting IMF members' use of the allocation and assessing its economic effects. The report finds that the allocation was beneficial for the global economy, helping meet the long-term global need for reserves and supporting market confidence. Members used the allocation mostly to increase international reserve buffers, with some emerging market and developing countries also using it to meet fiscal and external financing needs. While SDR interest costs have increased, members’ capacity to service SDR obligations remains generally adequate. Members’ use of the allocation was mostly in line with Fund advice, and the transparency and accountability of SDR holdings and use has been broadly appropriate, although some gaps remain. Voluntary SDR channeling from economically stronger to more vulnerable members has helped amplify the benefits of the allocation.
Keywords:
SDR channeling; service SDR obligation; SDR tracker; SDR converter; SDR department obligation; SDR interest rate; Freely usable currencies; International reserves; Credit default swap; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Malawi’s First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board (PMB) Involvement. In light of a series of shocks, program performance was mixed. The authorities are taking corrective actions to establish a record of accomplishment of policy implementation, possibly paving the way to an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Cyclone Freddy has weighed on the outlook for 2023 and led to a lower growth forecast and a higher inflation forecast. Key downside risks include slippages in program implementation, delays in the ongoing external debt restructuring process, and further external shocks. Performance on Quantitative Targets (QTs), Indicative Targets (ITs), and Structural Benchmarks was mixed, with four out of six end-December and continuous QTs and one out of three end-December ITs not met. Four out of seven Structural Benchmarks were not met. The authorities have committed to strong corrective actions. The authorities are taking corrective actions necessary to overcome mixed performance and implementation challenges with the PMB to date, allowing them to demonstrate their commitment and capacity to implement the agreed macroeconomic adjustment and reforms to build the policy record of accomplishment needed to support their request for an ECF arrangement.
Keywords:
restructuring strategy; monitoring of program performance; price discovery; policy track record; government Finance Statistics Manual; FX swap rollover risk; Debt service; International reserves; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Fund’s Income Position for FY2023 and FY2024
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper updates the projections of the Fund’s income position for FY 2023 and FY 2024 and proposes related decisions for the current and next financial year. The paper also includes a proposed decision to keep the margin for the rate of charge unchanged for financial year 2024. The Fund’s overall net income for FY 2023 is projected at about SDR 1.8 billion, slightly lower than the April 2022 estimate.
Keywords:
Income Position; Lending Income; Investment Income; Expenditures; Margin for the Rate of Charge; Reserve Accumulation; Precautionary Balances; Pension; Provisioning; Payout; Reimbursement; GRA FY; end FY; transparency policy; retirement plan obligation; income outlook; Income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Discount rates; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Third Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, and Request for a Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. As the outlook is subject to high uncertainty, near-term priorities should remain focused on mitigating the impact of the war, ensuring energy security, adapting contingency plans to evolving risks, and maintaining an appropriate policy mix. Once near-term pressures from the crises subside, the authorities appropriately plan to reorient spending toward supporting the recovery. Moldova remains in a precarious position. Russia’s war in Ukraine and its proximity to Moldova continue to fuel security concerns, while the social fabric remains fragile and stretched by high food and energy prices. Prudent use of contingency plans has helped reduce energy security risks and supported the most vulnerable through the cost-of-living crisis. Continued strong reform implementation—supported by the program—helps build solid foundations for sustainable long-term development.
Keywords:
reform agenda; Policy discussion; monetary policy easing; reform path; inflation consultation clause; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; International reserves; Corruption; Global