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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 141 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs
Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Keywords:
IMF-supported programs; conditionality; expenditure policy; social assistance; energy subsidies; pension spending; health spending; education spending; wage bill management; policy conditionality; policy area; IMF working papers; reform plan; E. public health spending; Health care spending; Caribbean; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
FY2024—Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2024 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
nominal capital; financing assessment; transparency policy; RSF spending; fund-financed spending; staff FTE; excluding travel; management fee; budget envelope; Budget planning and preparation; Total expenditures; Capital spending; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Germany: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Germany
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that the German economy has begun to recover from the energy-price shock. Gradual economic recovery is expected to continue this year. With wage growth now exceeding inflation, private consumption is expected to drive recovery during 2024. High interest rates have boosted bank profitability, but part of this increase is likely temporary. High interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in banks’ financing of commercial real estate activity. Risks to growth are broadly balanced, with both positive and negative surprises to consumer and investor sentiment possible. Inflation is expected to slowly fall to around 2 percent as lower wholesale energy prices continue to pass through supply chains and to end-users. Fiscal policy is tight, putting the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio on a downward path, although public investment is also relatively low. In order to stabilize labor supply, the authorities should make it easier for women to work full time. This means expanding access to reliable child- and eldercare services and exploring ways to reduce the effective marginal tax rate on second earners in married couples.
Keywords:
article IV consultation discussion; supervisory authority; currency of Germany; energy-price shock; state's ability; Inflation; Labor markets; Public investment spending; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Ukraine’s Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Ukraine’s performance remains strong under the EFF despite challenging conditions. All quantitative performance criteria for end-March were met, and all structural benchmarks through end-June were implemented on time or with a short delay. The Ukrainian economy continues to be resilient although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high uncertainty. Sustained reform momentum and timely disbursement of external support are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, restore fiscal and debt sustainability, and enhance institutional reforms to lay the path to European Union accession. Timely and predictable external disbursements together with strong domestic resource mobilization and careful liquidity management are necessary for Ukraine to meet its financing needs. Fiscal policies for the remainder of 2024, together with preparation for the 2025 budget, should be underpinned by steadfast revenue mobilization efforts aligned with the National Revenue Strategy.
Keywords:
ESBU head; ESBU law; staff appraisal; ESBU's role; investigative power; Budget planning and preparation; Financial sector stability; International reserves; Europe; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Poland: Technical Assistance Report-Aligning the Stabilizing Expenditure Rule to the European Union Fiscal Framework
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The stabilizing expenditure rule (SER) in Poland has been instrumental in fostering fiscal discipline in the years leading up to the pandemic. The pandemic and subsequent shocks severely tested the expenditure rule. Returning to the SER limit after severe shocks proved challenging, making clear the needs to revise the SER to preserve its credibility. The government could enhance the credibility of the expenditure rule through broadening its coverage and strengthening compliance, including establishing an independent fiscal council. Moreover, aligning to the EU fiscal framework will require (i) ensuring expenditure limits implied in the SER to be consistent with the EU net expenditure path; and (ii) providing explanation on the differences in expenditure coverage and classification between the SER and the EU fiscal framework to ensure compliance. Over time, transition to binding multi-year limits in the SER would improve linkages between annual budgets and medium-term fiscal planning.
Keywords:
Expenditure rule; Fiscal rule; Correction mechanism; EU economic governance; fiscal framework; Debt; Expenditure baseline; Republic of Poland.; SER limit; net expenditure path; EU net expenditure indicator; expenditure path; Fiscal rules; EU governance framework; Fiscal governance; Fiscal councils; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Resolving Opaque Bank Ownership and Related-Party Exposures
Edda R Karlsdóttir
,
Rachid Awad
,
Ender Emre
,
Alessandro Gullo
,
Aldona Jociene
, and
Constant Verkoren
This note intends to provide advice to bank supervision and resolution authorities and policymakers seeking to deal with opaque bank ownership or significant overhang of related-party exposures.
Keywords:
bank Ownership structures; bank Ownership transparency; IMF Library; bank owner; related-party transaction; Basel Core Principles; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Bank resolution; State-owned banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Ukraine’s 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), and Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion. The authorities have made strong progress toward their EFF commitments under challenging conditions, meeting all applicable quantitative performance criteria through end-June and indicative targets through end-September and the majority of structural benchmarks through end-October. The Ukrainian economy continues to show remarkable resilience, although the outlook remains subject to exceptionally high war-related uncertainty. Continued strong ownership and reform momentum—including domestic revenue mobilization combined with timely and predictable external financing—are necessary to safeguard macroeconomic stability, enhance institutional reforms, and support reconstruction efforts, while facilitating a green recovery on the path to EU accession. Well-managed post-war reconstruction coupled with decisive reforms in the context of the path to EU accession could stimulate the return of migrants and investment flows needed for a sustained, resilient and green recovery, bolstering Ukraine’s broader development goals.
Keywords:
government support program; HQ-led STX; budget financing needs; EU accession; NBU securities; path to EU accession; baseline financing gap; a number of credit risk assessment requirement; state guarantee; Budget planning and preparation; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maldives: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Maldives’ economic activity rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, supported by the authorities’ decisive policy measures. Fiscal and external vulnerabilities remain elevated due to rising subsidies, high capital spending, and an increased interest burden. The Maldives has a high risk of external debt distress and a high overall risk of debt distress. Inflation has risen but is relatively contained due to price subsidies. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a possible sharp slowdown in key source markets for tourism, high commodity prices, and tighter global financial conditions. A resumption of tourist arrivals from China is an upside risk to growth. The ongoing economic recovery provides an opportunity to swiftly implement a comprehensive set of reforms to reduce fiscal, debt, and external vulnerabilities, and strengthen economic resilience. The report recommends that financial sector policies should remain vigilant to safeguard financial stability considering the large exposure of the banking sector to the sovereign and the expiration of pandemic-related lending support schemes.
Keywords:
parliament approval; MMA authorities; staff appraisal; market in the Maldives; SARTTAC mission; government policy; Government debt management; Capital spending; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2023—Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2023 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
output cost estimate; administrative budget; budget augmentation; inflation; geopolitical fragmentation; transparency policy; staff growth; CD spending; staff FTE; phased budget augmentation; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; Climate change; Total expenditures; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating Fiscal Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa: Resilient Strategies and Credible Anchors in Turbulent Waters
Mr. Fabio Comelli
,
Peter Kovacs
,
Jimena Jesus Montoya Villavicencio
,
Arthur Sode
,
Mr. Antonio David
, and
Mr. Luc Eyraud
Sub-Saharan African countries have been hit, in recent years, by a cascading series of shocks that have exacerbated fiscal vulnerabilities. Significant reforms are needed to rebuild buffers and preserve the sustainability of public finances. The paper argues that a strategic approach to fiscal policy is needed, as policies in the region typically lack an effective anchor and are excessively focused on short-term goals. An explicit debt target is a crucial element of the fiscal strategy. But calibrating this anchor is a difficult exercise. This paper contributes to the debate by proposing a novel method tailored to the low-income country context, which relies on the principle of the preservation of debt-servicing capacity. Results using this method point to a median debt anchor of 55 percent of GDP in the region. Moreover, the paper also shows that most (though not all) countries will need to consolidate over the medium term to achieve prudent debt targets. Adjustment needs are in the order of 2 to 3 percent of GDP over the next five years for the median country. This consolidation seems feasible given historical experience and domestic revenue mobilization should play a central role in the adjustment process. Nevertheless, there is significant heterogeneity across countries: about a quarter of sub-Saharan African economies still have some fiscal space and can use it to continue making vital investments in human and physical capital. Finally, the paper discusses critical institutional reforms that are tailored to developing countries’ needs and constraints, including in the areas of medium-term budgeting, fiscal risk management, expenditure controls and revenue administration.
Keywords:
Fiscal Strategy; Fiscal Anchors; Political Economy; Africa; Covid-19; fiscal policy-Sub-Saharan Africa; fundamentals in Sub-Saharan Africa; debt Tolerance fundamentals; risk status; factors impacting debt Tolerance; government debt burden in Sub-Saharan Africa; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global