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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Inflation has surged to 18 percent while growth is projected to slow to 2.7 percent this year. High oil prices have strengthened fiscal and external buffers, while the revised budget increased public spending by 2½ percentage points of GDP to support activity. Subsidiaries of sanctioned Russian banks have exited the domestic market and regulatory compliance is being enhanced to avoid secondary sanctions. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as adverse global conditions could lower oil prices and raise borrowing costs, while oil exports through Russian territory remain a major source of vulnerability. Accelerated economic diversification and private sector development are needed to attain sustainable and inclusive growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Crisis Stalls Globalization: Reshaping the World Economy" examines the multiple facets of the recession-from the impact on individual economies to the effect on the global payments imbalances that were partially at the root of the crisis-and offers a variety of suggestions for supporting a recovery and averting future crises. Several IMF studies shed light on the depth of the crisis-including a survey of the sharp drop in trade finance, along with quantitative findings about the direct and indirect costs of the financial turbulence-and debate what is to be done from several angles, including the redesign of the regulatory framework and ways to plug large data gaps to prevent future crises and aid in the creation of early warning systems. Opinion pieces discuss the shifting boundaries between the state and markets, the agenda for financial sector reform, and the governance of global financial markets. The issue also includes a historical perspective to see when restructuring the global financial architecture actually succeeds. "People in Economics" profiles Nouriel Roubini; "Back to Basics" looks at what makes a recession; and "Data Spotlight" examines Latin America's debt.