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Asia and Pacific > Tonga

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Cover Departmental Papers
Rise of Digital Money: Implications for Pacific Island Countries
Yong Sarah Zhou, Tao Sun, Anca Paduraru, Arvinder Bharath, Stephanie Forte, Kathleen Kao, Yinqiu Lu, Maria Fernanda Chacon Rey, Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, Chia Yi Tan, and Bo Zhao
The departmental paper, "Rise of Digital Money: Implications for Pacific Island Countries," delves into the fast-evolving landscape of digital money in a diverse region of extremes in size, remoteness and dispersion, highlighting its significant macroeconomic and financial consequences. It provides an overview of the development of digital money and payment systems in Pacific Island Countries (PICs), assessing potential benefits and risks, with a focus on how they can harness digital technology to enhance financial inclusion and payment efficiency while minimizing risks. To this end, the paper also examines the prerequisites for successfully adopting various forms of digital money and proposes a strategic framework for policy decisions. The paper underscores the potential of digital money in advancing public policy goals, like financial inclusion and improved cross-border connectivity – given the specific characteristics of the region – while cautioning against the risks of rapid and inadequately regulated adoption. Accordingly, it advocates a gradual, well-informed approach, tailored to PICs' unique monetary and financial circumstances, including the presence of national currencies and the maturity of payment systems. Moreover, the paper suggests that a regional approach could help address capacity and scalability challenges in introducing new digital money forms and payment methods in PICs.
Keywords:
Digital Money; CBDC; Payment Systems; Financial Inclusion; Cross Border Payment; Pacific Islands; digital money revolution; digital money introduction; digital money taxonomy; digital money adoption; TF risk; digital money exploration; PIC authorities; Central Bank digital currencies; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Currencies; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that The Tongan economy is performing strongly, underpinned by resilient remittance inflows and major reconstruction activities following the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption in January 2022. The authorities are confronting a challenging trade-off between supporting reconstruction and managing inflation in the short term. In the long term, Tonga’s high vulnerability to natural disasters complicates its efforts to create the fiscal space necessary to finance development spending. Tonga is one of the largest recipients of IMF capacity development resources in the region, and the authorities have shown strong ownership. In the medium to long term, once the recovery becomes entrenched, Tonga should strengthen the public finances through a combination of domestic fiscal measures―including rationalization of tax exemptions and tax administration reform―and by seeking continued donor support, which is essential to meet Tonga’s development spending needs while reducing the risk of debt distress.
Keywords:
climate resilience; development spending needs; inflation pressure; PFTAC mission; development objective; development goal; GDP compilation capacity; Inflation; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability; Australia and New Zealand; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on a Nowcast
Mr. Sam Ouliaris and Ms. Celine Rochon
Nowcasting enables policymakers to obtain forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using higher frequency data, resulting in more timely information to guide proposed policy changes. A significant shortcoming of nowcasting estimators is their “reduced-form” nature, which means they cannot be used to assess the impact of policy changes, for example, on the baseline nowcast of real GDP. This paper outlines two separate methodologies to address this problem. The first is a partial equilibrium approach that uses an existing baseline nowcasting regression and single-equation forecasting models for the high-frequency data in that regression. The second approach uses a non-parametric structural VAR estimator recently introduced in Ouliaris and Pagan (2022) that imposes minimal identifying restrictions on the data to estimate the impact of structural shocks. Each approach is illustrated using a country-specific example.
Keywords:
Nowcasting; high frequency indicators; impulse responses; structural models; frequency data; Real GDP of Dominica; year-on-year percentage; baseline Nowcasting regression; USA real GDP; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Structural vector autoregression; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Tonga’s nascent economic recovery following Tropical Cyclone Harold and border closures in early 2020 has been severely disrupted by a double blow from the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption and the first local outbreak of COVID-19 at the start of 2022. The authorities are augmenting reconstruction and restoration efforts, with support from the international community. Real GDP is projected to contract by 1.9 percent in FY2022 (July 2021–June 2022), before rebounding by 3.2 percent in FY2023 with a gradual reopening of international borders.
Keywords:
Tongan authorities; climate resilience; monetary policy mix; accommodative fiscal policy; priority area; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp, Mr. Robin Koepke, and Jasper Verschuur
This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).
Keywords:
Merchandise trade Data; I. Pacific island; liner shipping connectivity index; Merchandise import; supply disruption; Imports; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Trade balance; Tourism; Pacific Islands; Global; port boundary; port call; vessel data
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Tonga’s recovery following the devastation of the 2018 Cyclone Gita has been derailed by a double blow from the pandemic and Cyclone Harold. FY2020 GDP growth is estimated to fall to -2½ percent due to domestic containment measures, a sudden stop in tourism, and investment delays. The full brunt of the pandemic will be felt in FY2021 (beginning July) during peak tourism season, when a deeper contraction is expected. A worse outcome was avoided by early actions to close external borders—which has kept Tonga COVID-19-free—and prompt economic support. Beyond FY2021, the recovery is expected to resume in line with the global recovery, but the magnitude and trajectory is uncertain.
Cover IMF Working Papers
Review of the Public Financial Management Reform Strategy for Pacific Island Countries, 2010-2020
Mr. Richard I Allen, Ms. Majdeline El Rayess, Laura Doherty, and Priya Goel
This paper reviews the Public Financial Management (PFM) reform stategy for 16 Pacific Island Countries (PICs) during the period 2010-2020. The strategy was endorsed by the finance and economic ministers of the region (FEMM) in 2010. The paper analyzes more than 30 PEFA assessments carried out across the region. The region shares the generally slow pace of PFM reform that is also a feature of most developing countries. Some PICs have improved their PFM performance significantly, while others have done less well. PFM reforms have suffered from the small size and low capacity of many PICs, poorly designed PFM roadmaps, variable political suppport for reform, and vulnerability to natural disasters. The paper recommends that in the next five years, there should be a more granular and targeted approch to PEFAs. PICs should focus on basic PFM reforms and (where capacities allow) more transparent public finances, as well as better management of climate change considerations, public infrastructure, gender inequalities, and state-owned enterprises. Perseverance by countries in implementing reforms and leadership by finance ministries are critical. PFTAC’s advice is highly regarded across the region, and it could consider alternative modalities of CD delivery and stronger coordination with other development partners.
Keywords:
WP; PEFA assessment; PFM advisor; PFM reform; PFM performance; PFM system; CD activity; Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA); Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal risks; Budget execution and treasury management; Pacific Islands; Pacific Islands Countries; public finance management (PFM) reform; PFTAC; PEFA