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Middle East and Central Asia > Tajikistan, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Dalia Kadissi
,
Giulio Lisi
, and
Nasir H Rao
In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks.
Keywords:
Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy; CCA inflation dynamics; inflation driver; Phillips Curve estimation; inflation development; inflation outcome; Food prices; Output gap; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Tajikistan: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for Modification of a Quantitative Target and a Reform Target-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan has continued to navigate the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4 percent during January-September 2024, while inflation remained well-contained at 3.1 percent (y/y) in September. Robust remittances have boosted the external position, with FX reserves at more than 7 months’ import coverage, while prudent fiscal implementation has anchored a continued reduction in public debt. The banking sector remains stable amid steady growth in credit aggregates. Geopolitical fragmentation and regional tensions create uncertainty over the medium-term outlook.
Keywords:
NBT regulation; asset declaration regime; procurement authorities; NBT Law; government approval; Government debt management; Fiscal risks; Monetary base; Global; Central Asia
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Tajikistan: Public Investment Management Assessment with the Climate Module
Bryn Battersby
,
Imran A Aziz
,
Thomas Ekeli
,
David Gentry
,
Ian H Hawkesworth
,
Anjum Israr
,
Gregory Kisunko
, and
Joe Taylor
The assistance assessed Tajikistan’s public investment management practices and their climate sensitivity using the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) with the Climate Module (C-PIMA). Tajikistan was found to perform well in some areas of the PIMA and C-PIMA, but there were gaps in others. In particular, parallel external and internally financed processes present recurring challenges across Tajikistan’s public investment management framework. Implementing a comprehensive framework for portfolio oversight and management that encompasses all investment projects, irrespective of their funding source, would also be especially beneficial.
Keywords:
Public investment management; PIMA; C-PIMA; climate change; Green PFM; management practice; management framework; investment project; climate sensitivity; portfolio oversight; Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA); Public investment spending; Central Asia