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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic forecasting x
  • Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?
Mr. Ales Bulir
,
Jaromír Hurník
, and
Ms. Katerina Smídková
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation factor; inflation report; correlation Between Reported; inflation target; report communication; Inflation targeting; Kalman filter; monetary policy communication; correlation coefficient; inflation expectation; inflation deviation; Inflation; Exchange rates; Communications in revenue administration; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts
Mr. Christopher W. Crowe
I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This effect is robust to dropping observations, is strengthened by using instrumental variable estimation to eliminate mean-reversion, and is absent in placebo regressions (where IT adoption is shifted by a year). This result supports Morris and Shin's (2002) contention that better public information is most beneficial for forecasters with bad private information. However, it does not support their hypothesis that better public information could make private forecasts less accurate.
Keywords:
WP; central bank