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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper presents Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s Technical Assistance report on government finance statistics (GFS) mission. There has been a progress on a gradual basis in the timeliness of GFS compilation and dissemination to the IMF due to an improvement in coordination between the Fiscal Policy and Law Department and data providers on the provision of source data, but these data are still not reconciled in a more regular and timelier basis. Monthly budget execution data which is used for GFS compilation, such as other allowances and subsidies in expenditure in particular, are aggregated and prepared according to source data from the data providers. The Annual budget for FY2022 including fiscal package including fiscal measures for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response was submitted to the National Assembly in Nov/Dec 2021. The report recommends to coordinate with relevant departments including the Budget Department in the reporting system and/or the Inter-ministerial Committee to collect data for COVID-19 related spending for tracing and monitoring the spending.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on government finance statistics (GFS) covers the remote TA to the Ministry of Finance (MOF) during September 21–October 2 and December 14–18, 2020 and March 9–13 and April 19–23, 2021 (which was extended to May 2021). These peripatetic activities were conducted remotely due to the travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 situation. This report documents the main achievements from these activities. These activities were part of the GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) project funded by the Government of Japan (JSA3) and implemented by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Myanmar’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. These developments have greatly amplified uncertainty and could heighten downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation, including related policy responses from the authorities, and will continue to work on assessing its impact in the Myanmar economy. Although long-term prospects remain favorable, near-term growth is likely to remain below potential as the correction in real estate market and continued uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment in the runup to the 2020 elections. Starting FY2020/21, bank deleveraging will further slow credit and constrain gross domestic product growth as borrower’s true ability to repay is revealed with term loans coming due and banks restructure in earnest.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report paper highlights that the work on verifying reasonable size of coverage adjustments for Myanmar’s imports was addressed during the mission, using bilateral trade data from Thailand and China. The mission illustrated how granular data can be used to help determine proper adjustments to improve the coverage of the International merchandise trade statistics, using Thailand’s data on exports to Myanmar cross-classified by border checkpoint and 2-digit HS code. The data indicated potential under-coverage of Myanmar imports for a few checkpoints sharing land border with Thailand. Although the actual travel expenditure per person per day for certain years is likely to be lower than the time series published by the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism given continuous depreciation of Kyat over the past five years, this factor should unlikely outweigh the effect of growing numbers of inbound tourists. Balance-of-payments compilation file used by the Central Bank of Myanmar Balance of Payments Section has now been modified to accommodate suggested coverage adjustments for imports, and the new estimation model for freight and insurance on imports proposed during March 2019 mission.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The main purpose of this mission—undertaken with the support of the Government of Japan’s government finance statistics (GFS) project for selected Asian countries—was to improve the quality of the GFS for nonfinancial public corporations (NFPCs) in Thailand by designing a simpler, but more complete, compilation system for the GFS compilers in the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) of the Ministry of Finance. The mission also discussed some specific general government GFS data compilation issues with the compilers and recommended some actions that would lead to further improvements in data quality as well as consistency with other macroeconomic statistics. In addition, the mission commended the recent momentum gained by the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) on the reporting of timely, quarterly public sector debt statistics and encouraged them to continue with the regular, quarterly reporting.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Mr. Robert M Heath
and
Evrim Bese Goksu
The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI), which aimed at addressing the information needs that were revealed by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, concluded its first phase and started a second phase (DGI-2) with the endorsement of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in September 2015. The DGI-2 recommendations maintain the continuity of DGI-1 but reflecting the evolving policy needs focus more on datasets that support the monitoring of risks in the financial sector and the analysis of the inter-linkages across the economic and financial systems. The paper presents the DGI as an overarching initiative, bringing together various statistical frameworks for a complete picture of the economic and financial system to support the work of policy makers.
Mr. Robert M Heath
The liberalization of capital flows both in the domestic economy and cross-border has been among the most important policies adopted by IMF member countries over recent decades. The impact has been wide-ranging. This paper looks at the impact on the field of economic and financial statistics in the past two decades, as statisticians have responded to the changing policy needs. The paper considers the historical context of changes that have occurred, draws out the key trends, and asks where these trends might lead statisticians in the foreseeable future. The paper considers that there has been nothing short of a revolution in the field of economic and financial statistics over the past two decades led by a need for greater transparency; greater standardization; new data sets to support understanding of financial interconnections and financial sector risks; and the strengthening of the governance of the statistical function through greater independence of statistical agencies.
Sylwia Nowak
,
Mr. Sanjaya P Panth
,
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
, and
Mr. Yiqun Wu
Net capital flows to emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and compares developments in the broader economy, asset prices, and corporate variables across the different episodes of strong inflows. We find little evidence of a significant build-up of imbalances and resource misallocation during the most recent surge. We also review country experiences in managing the risks associated with inflows and argue that Asian countries have used regulatory measures during past surges, although there is not strong evidence of their efficacy without supporting monetary and fiscal policies.