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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World: Economic Challenges and Opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
Ms. Manuela Goretti
,
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
,
Aleksandra Babii
,
Mr. Serhan Cevik
,
Stella Kaendera
,
Mr. Dirk V Muir
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Keywords:
Tourism; Jobs; Diversification; COVID-19; Growth; Spillovers; tourism industry; tourism sector; tourism flow; tourism export; tourism model; tourism dominance; economies will; Communicable diseases; Exports; Global; Pacific Islands; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inclusive Growth in ASEAN
Victoriia Alekhina
and
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
Over the past decades ASEAN countries have experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by a dramatic fall in poverty rates, but income inequality has not retreated. This research aims at identifying factors which could contribute to more equally distributed growth in ASEAN. To measure inclusive growth, we use a variable integrating per capita income growth and an equity index. A cross-country panel analysis of the impact of macro-structural factors on inclusive growth and its two components suggests that fiscal redistribution, female labor force participation, productivity growth, FDI inflows, digitalization, and savings significantly drive inclusive growth. A scenario analysis based on our econometric results suggests that the implementation of fiscal redistribution and labor market-oriented structural reforms could help significantly accelerate inclusive growth in ASEAN.
Keywords:
WP; income; ASEAN country; per capita income; GDP; income share; income distribution; distribution data; economic growth; income inequality; Inclusive growth; Income inequality; Personal income; Income distribution; Fiscal redistribution; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Inequality; Equity; inflation rate; simulation result
Cover IMF Working Papers
Asia’s Quest for Inclusive Growth Revisited
Ms. Chie Aoyagi
and
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
Despite the rapid economic growth and poverty reduction, inequality in Asia worsened during last two decades. We focus on the determinants of growth inclusiveness and suggest options for reform. A cross cross-country empirical analysis suggests that fiscal redistribution, monetary policy aimed at macro stability, and structural reforms to stimulate trade, reduce unemployment and increase productivity are important determinants of inclusive growth. The main policy implication of our analysis is that there is still room to strengthen such policies in Asia to better achieve growth with shared prosperity. In particular, scenario simulations based on our results suggests that the effect of expanding fiscal redistribution on inclusive growth could be sizeable in emerging Asia, since the estimated improvement in our proxy of inclusive growth – a measure of growth in average income “corrected” for the equity impact—ranges from about 1 to about 8 percentage points.
Keywords:
WP; Asia; monetary policy; Gini coefficient; poverty; fiscal policy; Inclusive growth; inequality; economic growth; indifference curve; aggregate Gini Index; absolute poverty; poverty-reducing effect; monetary policy variable; poverty rate; income share; level of significance; policy implication; Income inequality; Fiscal redistribution; Poverty reduction; Income distribution; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Workers’ Remittances: An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
,
Mr. Ralph Chami
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
, and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper shows that remittance flows significantly increase the business cycle synchronization between remittance-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study demonstrates that this effect is robust and causal. Moreover, the econometric analysis reveals that remittance flows are more effective in channeling economic downturns than upswings from the sending countries to remittance-receiving economies. The analysis suggests that measures of openness and spillovers could be enhanced by accounting for the role of the remittances channel.
Keywords:
WP; remittance flow; Remittances; Business Cycle Synchronization; Trade; Spillovers; remittance inflow; sending country; remittance ratio; Business cycles; Foreign direct investment; Terms of trade; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's
Chikako Baba
and
Annamaria Kokenyne
This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in all cases, and the effects are temporary. Controls are more successful in providing room for monetary policy than dampening currency appreciation pressures. We argue that the macroeconomic impact of capital controls depends on the extensiveness of the policy, the level of capital market development, the support provided by other policies, and the persistence of capital flows.
Keywords:
WP; capital control; control index; capital; The URR; capital controls; private capital flows; emerging market economies; interest rate differential; outflow liberalization; policy in Brazil; outflow control liberalization; currency appreciation; outflow control index; inflow control; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Business cycles; Current account balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses
Jihad Dagher
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent; market value; business cycle; interest rate; transition probability; Financial liberalization; welfare gain; financial deepening; economic growth; small firm; maximization problem; productivity parameter; firm decrease; growth firm; leverage firm; Sudden stops; Financial frictions; Stocks; Business cycles; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2003
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; program committee; policy relevance; IMF research bulletin; Fourth Annual Research Conference of the IMF; IMF researcher; IMF research conference; yaw Asante; Exchange rate arrangements; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Business cycles; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Africa; Global; West Africa; Eastern Europe; Southern Africa; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress
Graciela Laura Kaminsky
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and were thus unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises elsewhere, occur when economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Keywords:
WP; banking crisis; currency crisis; foreign exchange; Early Warnings; Currency Crises; Banking Crises; forecasting currency; crisis time; banking fragility; currency-crisis months; currency crash; Real exchange rates; Cyclical indicators; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Currency Crises Predictable?
Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes
and
Mr. Ilan Goldfajn
This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.
Keywords:
WP; crisis; devaluation; crisis episode; devaluation rate; exchange rate crisis; nominal devaluation; overvaluation measure; misalignment estimate; balance-of-payments crisis; crisis month; devaluation measure; Real exchange rates; Currency crises; Cyclical indicators; Exchange rates