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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports
Mr. Philip Barrett
,
Maximiliano Appendino
,
Kate Nguyen
, and
Jorge de Leon Miranda
We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.
Keywords:
WP; Arabic language; appendix E; political science; Social Unrest; Protest; Media; unrest events; RSUI event coding; terms OR; RSUI index; country-horizon pair; statistical analysis; RSUI data; Public expenditure review; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics
Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
, and
Theodore Pierre Bikoi
This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed.
Keywords:
WP; product; Bank of Lao PDR; import; Lao PDR Ministry of Industry and Commerce; External trade statictics; bilateral assymetries; trade partner data; imports and exports; customs data; MOIC data; wood product export restriction; exports ratio; Lao P.D.R reserve adequacy; Imports; Exports; Trade balance; Trade deficits; Metals; Global