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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart
,
Miguel A. Segoviano
, and
Boris Hofmann
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
Keywords:
WP; asset price; price bubble; property price; bank lending; Probability of default; credit risk; systemic risk; macroeconomic shocks; stress testing; financial surveillance; price variable; property boom; asset gap variable; asset price dynamics; asset price shock; asset price fluctuation; asset price surge; equity price; assets decrease; short interest; bank PoDs; asset price gap; Asset prices; Bank credit; Land prices; Credit; Financial statistics; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
and
Mr. Charles Collyns
This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.
Keywords:
WP; price index; property price; asset price bubbles; financial market; exchange market crisis; rate of return; Lending Booms; Real Estate Bubbles; Asia Crisis; property market; adverse selection; Land prices; Real estate prices; Asset prices; Asset bubbles; Credit; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
,
Ms. Lisbeth S Zacho
, and
Mr. Qin Lei
This paper analyses the characteristics and functioning of real estate markets. It focuses on the relationship between developments in these markets and the financial sector to determine under what circumstances real estate booms and busts can develop and how they can affect the health and stability of the financial system. It concludes that unbalanced real estate price developments often contribute to financial sector distress and that trends in real estate markets should be monitored closely in the context of financial sector assessments.
Keywords:
WP; real estate; property price; price development; determination process; prices fall; stock price; financial sector; financial crises; price fall; Real estate prices; Land prices; Commercial banks; Credit; Asia and Pacific