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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Housing Supply and Markets x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Japan; fertility rate; income; income balance; fertility rate relationship; IMF staff calculation; Japan's fertility rate; GDP shock; Personal income; Housing prices; Price stabilization; Tourism; Inflation; Global; Middle East; Europe; North America; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit
International Monetary Fund
The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Keywords:
PP; financial market; risk; country risk; IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise; EWE methodology; financial crisis; business cycle; global economy; EWE framework; EWE tool; IMF mission; EWE analysis; EWE toolkit; risk premium; Early warning systems; Housing prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Asset bubbles; Global