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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Piyaporn Chote
,
Corinne C Delechat
,
Thanaphol Kongphalee
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Pym Manopimoke
, and
Tamon Yungvichit
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; poverty; inflation dynamics; income effect; fiscal cost.; elevated inflation; inflation component; rising prices; energy price; Income; Energy prices; Consumption; Food prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
and
Juan Angel Garcia
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Keywords:
WP; inflation expectation; price inflation; inflation dynamics; trend inflation estimate; Phillips curve; monetary policy; inflation expectations; ASEAN countries; import inflation; Inflation; Oil prices; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; Import prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses a few selected issues of the Nigerian economy—options and strategies for a fiscal rule for oil wealth management, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy, and recent developments and prospects of capital flow. Despite its diversified economy, Nigeria’s fiscal policy is heavily dependent on the oil sector. This paper explores options for a formalized rule-based approach to setting a “depoliticized” budget oil price. Two boom-and-bust episodes since early 2000 have highlighted the challenges in the current monetary policy framework. Nigeria has also been characterized by sizable capital outflows, which have diminished recently.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; firm; Nigeria; monetary policy; price rule; enterprise survey; large firm; firm Size; containment rule; Oil prices; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Fiscal governance; Corporate sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that after a sharp contraction in the first quarter of 2014, Thailand’s economy experienced a modest recovery in subsequent quarters, to expand by 0.7 percent in the year as a whole. Inflation decelerated toward the end of 2014 and became negative in January 2015 owing to a sharp decline in oil prices. The recovery is expected to continue in 2015 with growth projected at 3.7 percent on account of some rebound in consumption, including from lower fuel prices, and in private investment as backlogs of project approvals have been largely cleared by various government agencies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; fuel price reform; U.S. dollar; government; infrastructure investment program; Thai authorities; promotion strategy; inflation expectation; Inflation; Oil prices; Credit; Commercial banks; Global
Cover Indonesia
Indonesia
Sustaining Growth During Global Volatility

Abstract

Over the past decade, Indonesia has developed into an important regional and global economy, as well as an active participant in the G20. The chapters in this book document the substantial improvements in the quality of macroeconomic policy that Indonesia has achieved, while also clearly laying out an agenda of measures that should be taken to safeguard these gains and further lower vulnerabilities going forward. Rather than just demonstrating progress in key macroeconomic indicators, the contributors have delved into the ways that global volatility, especially since 2008, has affected Indonesia and how that country has adjusted its policies to meet the new challenges.

Keywords:
BOOK; Indonesia; firm; capital structure; inflation in Indonesia; inflation risk premium; inflation expectation; Indonesian firm; Inflation; Corporate sector; Corporate governance; Reserve positions; Global; Asia and Pacific; Energy subsidies
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This paper takes an in-depth look into recent trade patterns to assess the extent of such concerns. It is found that (i) there is no strong evidence of Dutch Disease; (ii) weak performance in some sectors, so far, does not appear to be linked to the commodity boom; and (iii) although further reliance on commodities has increased Indonesia’s vulnerability to export price volatility, the terms of trade have actually been rather stable as import and export prices co-move markedly, mitigating such vulnerability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; commodity; export; commodity boom; term premium; price shock; commodity export; inflation risk premium; Inflation; Exports; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that India is on track for another year of robust growth in 2004/05. Supported by a strong monsoon, growth rebounded to 8½ percent in 2003/04, the highest level in more than a decade. In 2005, firms appear to have embarked on a new investment cycle, underpinned by strong credit growth. Inflation has been running higher, driven largely by supply-side factors. The balance of payments position remains comfortable notwithstanding the higher oil prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; WPI inflation; second quarter growth; deficit; merchandise import; staff appraisal; central government deficit; Inflation; Oil prices; Asia and Pacific