Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 26 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks
Nuri Baek
,
Kaustubh Chahande
,
Kodjovi M. Eklou
,
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ara Stepanyan
The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication.
Keywords:
Trade integration; financial integration; digitalization; fragmentation risks; goods export sophistication; firm level result; firm growth; firm Growth; external finance dependence; Financial sector development; Exports; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Experimental Indicators of Digital Industries in Select Countries: Definitions, Methods, and Results
Brent Moulton
,
James Tebrake
, and
Martha Tovar
The pervasive impact of digitalization on the economy and the lack of an agreed definition makes it challenging to obtain estimates of the digital economy. Nowadays, some countries have estimated the value of the digital economy by identifying digital products or industries as defined in the international classifications. This study presents the estimates of digital industries for five countries that participated in an experimental exercise, applying a simplified standard approach recommended by the international agencies as part of the national accounts framework and using publicly available and limited secondary information. The results show that the structure and evolution of digital industries vary across countries and over time and that the estimates depend significantly on the underlying data sources. The conclusions of this exercise reveal the need to upgrade the data sources to better identify the impact of digitalization and contribute to policy-making on the economic benefits of digitalization.
Keywords:
Enabling industries; digitally ordered; digitally delivered; digital intermediary platforms; e-commerce; supply and use tables; product classification system; ISIC Sector; value of the digital economy; nominal GVA; gross value; Digital economy; Digitalization
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
export sophistication; insolvency regime; NDC roadmap; emissions trend; resource reallocation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Debt restructuring; Solvency; Carbon tax; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspective: Fall 21/Winter 22
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; inflation pressure; climate disaster; impact of the pandemic; supply chain disruption; mitigation policy; Trade balance; Natural disasters; Climate change; Imports; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Socio-Economic Spillovers from Special Economic Zones: Evidence from Cambodia
Mariya Brussevich
This study examines the socio-economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) in Cambodia---a prominent place-based policy established in 2005. The paper employs a database on existing and future SEZs in Cambodia with matched household surveys at the district level and documents stylized facts on SEZs in a low-income country setting. To identify causal effects of the SEZ program, the paper (i) constructs an alternative control group including future SEZ program participants and districts adjacent to SEZ hosts; and (ii) employs a propensity score weighting technique. The study finds that entry of SEZs disproportionately benefits female workers and leads to a decline of income inequality at a district level. However, the findings also suggest that land values in SEZ districts tend to rise while wage levels remain largely unchanged relative to other districts. In addition, the paper tests for socio-economic spillovers to surrounding areas and for agglomeration effects associated with clusters of multiple SEZs.
Keywords:
WP; SEZ program; SEZ entry; SEZ firm; program participation; SEZ district; SEZ location; Employment; Wages; Income; Income inequality; Labor markets; Special Economic Zones; Place-Based Policy; Low-Income Country; Foreign Direct Investment; SEZ effect; SEZ developer; SEZ trend; tagged SEZ database; SEZ program participation; SEZ intensity; propensity score weighting technique; Policy implication; impact of special economic zones; Women
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inclusive Growth in ASEAN
Victoriia Alekhina
and
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
Over the past decades ASEAN countries have experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by a dramatic fall in poverty rates, but income inequality has not retreated. This research aims at identifying factors which could contribute to more equally distributed growth in ASEAN. To measure inclusive growth, we use a variable integrating per capita income growth and an equity index. A cross-country panel analysis of the impact of macro-structural factors on inclusive growth and its two components suggests that fiscal redistribution, female labor force participation, productivity growth, FDI inflows, digitalization, and savings significantly drive inclusive growth. A scenario analysis based on our econometric results suggests that the implementation of fiscal redistribution and labor market-oriented structural reforms could help significantly accelerate inclusive growth in ASEAN.
Keywords:
WP; income; ASEAN country; per capita income; GDP; income share; income distribution; distribution data; economic growth; income inequality; Inclusive growth; Income inequality; Personal income; Income distribution; Fiscal redistribution; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Inequality; Equity; inflation rate; simulation result
Cover IMF Working Papers
Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand
Ichiro Fukunaga
and
Manrique Saenz
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; loan; Taylor; housing loan; x inflation gap; Macroprudential policies; Lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Thailand; world interest rate; LTV rule; household LTV cap; Macroprudential policy instruments; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Housing; Inflation; monetary policy transmission; inflation stability; inflation gap; world interest rate shock
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report paper highlights that the work on verifying reasonable size of coverage adjustments for Myanmar’s imports was addressed during the mission, using bilateral trade data from Thailand and China. The mission illustrated how granular data can be used to help determine proper adjustments to improve the coverage of the International merchandise trade statistics, using Thailand’s data on exports to Myanmar cross-classified by border checkpoint and 2-digit HS code. The data indicated potential under-coverage of Myanmar imports for a few checkpoints sharing land border with Thailand. Although the actual travel expenditure per person per day for certain years is likely to be lower than the time series published by the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism given continuous depreciation of Kyat over the past five years, this factor should unlikely outweigh the effect of growing numbers of inbound tourists. Balance-of-payments compilation file used by the Central Bank of Myanmar Balance of Payments Section has now been modified to accommodate suggested coverage adjustments for imports, and the new estimation model for freight and insurance on imports proposed during March 2019 mission.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM Balance of Payments Section; Myanmar; BPS compiler; mirror data; verification exercise; deputy governor; data request; Imports; External sector statistics; Civil society organizations; Credit
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Growth in the first half of 2018 was softer than in 2017, especially in advanced economies. In contrast, growth remained robust in emerging market economies and broadly in line with expectations. After rising to 6.9 percent in 2017, growth in China continued to be strong into the first half of 2018 but has likely slowed since, given the latest high-frequency indicators, including weakening investment growth. In Japan, after exceeding potential for two years, growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2018 before rebounding sharply in the second quarter. In India, growth continues to recover steadily after the disruptions related to demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax in the last fiscal year.1 And in ASEAN-4 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand), growth generally lost momentum in the first half of 2018, except in Thailand.

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff calculation; economy; trade; growth strategy; growth; growth slowdown; Asia's growth; growth engine; trade tension scenario; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Tariffs; Digitalization; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter?
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes new empirical evidence on the dynamic adjustment path of growth and key fiscal variables after severe weather-related disasters. It does not only show that output loss can be permanent, but even twice as large for cases of severe casualties or material damages than people affected. Meanwhile, key fiscal aggregates remain surprisingly stable. Event and case studies suggest that this can reflect both a deliberate policy choice or binding constraints. The latter can make governments respond through mitigating fiscal policy efforts such as ad hoc fiscal rebalancing and reprioritization. The findings help better customize disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts to countries’ risk exposure along a particular loss dimension.
Keywords:
WP; capital expenditure; Das country; private sector; weather-related natural disasters; climate change; growth; fiscal policy; loss dimension; loss measure; loss intensity threshold; loss threshold; disaster risk; material loss; demand management; government effectiveness; fiscal policy response; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Global