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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Demographic Economics: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
, and
Umang Rawat
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; real interest rate; rate of interest; demographics; interest rates; capital account openness; world interest rate; interest rate adjustment; dependency ratio; real interest rate increase; adjustment to saving; interest rate environment; aging speed; Real interest rates; Aging; Demographic change; Long term interest rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation
Robert M. Townsend
and
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
We propose a coherent unified approach to the study of the linkages among economic growth, financial structure, and inequality, bringing together disparate theoretical and empirical literature. That is, we show how to conduct model-based quantitative research on transitional paths. With analytical and numerical methods, we calibrate and make tractable a prototype canonical model and take it to an application, namely, Thailand 1976-1996, an emerging economy in a phase of economic expansion with uneven financial deepening and increasing inequality. We broadly replicate the actual data, test the model formally, and identify anomalies.
Keywords:
WP; growth rate; financial system; Financial deepening; inequality; growth; transitional dynamics; saving rate; value function; Thai baht; benchmark economy; parameter value; portfolio choice; population shift; Income inequality; Income distribution; Personal income; Agroindustries; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Implications of HIV/AIDS
Mr. Markus Haacker
and
Mr. N. F. R. Crafts
The paper evaluates the impact of HIV/AIDS on welfare in several countries affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Unlike studies focusing on the impact of HIV/AIDS on GDP per capita, we evaluate the impact of increased mortality using estimates of the value of statistical life. Our results illustrate the catastrophic impact of HIV/AIDS in the worst-affected countries and suggest that studies focusing on GDP and income per capita capture only a very small proportion of the welfare impact of HIV/AIDS.
Keywords:
WP; life expectancy; Welfare; HIV/AIDS; value of statistical life; Africa; adult HIV prevalence rate; income elasticity; mortality risk; welfare loss; no-AIDS scenario; HIV and AIDS; Personal income; Aging
Cover IMF Working Papers
Transitional Growth with Increasing Inequality and Financial Deepening
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
We study models that display growth with financial deepening and increasing inequality along the way to perpetual steady state growth. A benchmark model is essentially a complete markets model but with transaction costs of financial intermediation. New proofs are required and thus provided for stochastic dynamic programming for the case of unbounded return functions and perpetual growth with a non-convex transaction technology. We calibrate the model and report quantitative predictions for Thailand during 1976-96. We find a discrepancy between the model and the data, suspect barriers to financial deepening as a cause, and evaluate the associated welfare loss.
Keywords:
WP; confidence interval; participation rate; Transitional growth; inequality; financial deepening; transaction costs; value function; savings rate; portfolio share; critical value; functional equation; fixed cost; capital level; Income distribution; Income inequality; Consumption; Financial sector; Asia and Pacific; population distribution; transitional value; values function; parameter value; economy data source; setting parameter
Cover IMF Working Papers
Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian “Tigers”
Mr. Steven A. Symansky
and
Mr. Peter S. Heller
Significant aging is projected for many high-saving emerging economies of East and Southeast Asia. By 2025, the share of the elderly in their populations will at least double in most of these countries. The share of the young will fall. Aging populations could adversely affect saving rates in these economies, particularly after 2025. For the world, one may observe that, initially, the Asian Tigers could become increasingly important for world savings, reflecting their increased weight in the world economy, their high saving and growth rates, and the aging of the industrial countries. After 2025, the aging of the Tigers may reinforce the tendency toward a declining world saving rate.
Keywords:
WP; saving rate; world saving; household savings data; dependency rate; high-saving country; private sector; Tiger saving; Aging; Asia; saving; savings; demographics; savings imbalance; rate Tigers; savings behavior; Private savings; Public sector savings; Demographic change; East Asia; Southeast Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
and
Mr. Aasim M. Husain
This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.
Keywords:
WP; saving rate; time series; critical value; country estimate; saving scheme; coefficient estimate; panel estimation; estimation result; Engle-granger estimate; Private savings; Disposable income; Income; Aging; Southeast Asia