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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Keywords:
WP; flow data; portfolio flow; debt flow; flow proxy; IMF balance of payments statistic; portfolio flows; fund flows; balance of payments; coincident indicators; IIF data; IMF balance of payments data; Capital flows; Stocks; Balance of payments statistics; Flow of funds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Africa; Global
Cover Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Venkat Josyula

Abstract

This third edition of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide has been prepared to assist economies that participate or are preparing to participate in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). It builds on and updates the second edition of the CPIS Guide (2002) to reflect the adoption of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) as the standard framework for compiling cross-border position statistics.

Keywords:
M&G; portfolio investment data collection system; investment; CPIS data template; survey questionnaire; investment survey; CPIS metadata questionnaire; Securities; Portfolio investment; Stocks; Foreign direct investment; Bonds; Global; Caribbean; CPIS data; securities holding; portfolio investment liability; liability position; CPIS Task Force; portfolio investment securities; Business enterprises
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: a Global VAR approach
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
and
Nour Tawk
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.
Keywords:
WP; price; Japan; interest rate; Japan's QQE; net export; QQE; Spillovers; Emerging Asia; equity price; Japan MSCI index; currency appreciation; Japan's price competitiveness; equity price shock; Japan's quantitative easing program; QQE in Japan; stock price effect; price boom; equity price increase; Inflation; Stocks; Monetary base; Unconventional monetary policies; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sudden Stops, Output Drops, and Credit Collapses
Jihad Dagher
This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent; market value; business cycle; interest rate; transition probability; Financial liberalization; welfare gain; financial deepening; economic growth; small firm; maximization problem; productivity parameter; firm decrease; growth firm; leverage firm; Sudden stops; Financial frictions; Stocks; Business cycles; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program: Detailed Assessment on the Implementation of the IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents key findings of the detailed assessment on the implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) objectives and principles of securities regulation for Thailand. The assessment recommends creating a formal coordination mechanism among governmental agencies with regulatory authority over capital markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) should amend its code of conduct and provide that restrictions on securities investments by its staff also applies to spouses, minor children, and all other accounts over which an employee has the authority to make investment decisions.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; SEC staff; equity trading; business operation; company assets; insider trading; SEC disclosure system; SEC tape recording rule; shareholder meeting; tender offer; SEC regulation; SET regulation; internal auditor; Securities; Mutual funds; Legal support in revenue administration; Stocks; Auditing
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, September 2006
Global Financial Stability Report, September 2006
Market Developments and Issues
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR), published twice a year by the IMF, provides timely analysis of developments in mature and emerging market countries and seeks to identify potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis. The GFSR aims to deepen its readers’ understanding of global capital flows, which play a critical role as an engine of world economic growth. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The Global Financial Stability Report was created to provide a more frequent assessment of global financial markets and to address emerging market financing in a global context. The report focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues of financial imbalances, and of a structural nature, that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. The GFSR focuses on relevant contemporary issues, not attempting to be a comprehensive survey of all potential risks. It also draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. It regularly contains, as a special feature, articles on structural or systemic issues relevant to international financial stability.

Keywords:
GFSR; market; emerging market; household credit; asset; market movement; market volatility; market turbulence; fiscal policy credibility; Consumer credit; Credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Loans; Stocks; Global; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; EM country; market correction; market participant; baseline market view; currency market concern; yen carry trade; credit growth; Mortgages; Foreign banks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Markets: Income, Repatriations and Financial Vulnerabillities
Mr. Alexander Lehmann
Based on U.S. data, the returns on foreign direct investment in emerging markets are shown to be substantially higher than would be suggested by official balance of payments statistics. This paper identifies the determinants of FDI profitability in 43 industrialized and developing countries. After financial leverage and the effect of tax minimizing income transfers are controlled for, host country risk and market openness are found to raise affiliate returns on equity and returns on sales. In the context of a number of financial crises during the 1990s, income repatriations are shown to be pro-cyclical, though the effect of host country recessions is mitigated through continued spending on fixed capital and a re-direction of affiliate sales towards export markets.
Keywords:
WP; return on equity; investor; earnings; Profitability of Foreign Direct Investment; Cashflows in Multinational Corporations; FDI income; FDI inflow; host country FDI statistics; FDI flow; foreign direct investment enterprise; parent company; B. FDI; FDI share; FDI transactions; Foreign direct investment; Personal income; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Wages; Stocks; Asia and Pacific; North America; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls
Mr. Francis E. Warnock
and
Ms. Hali J Edison
We present a readily available monthly measure of the intensity of capital controls across 29 emerging market countries that is based on the degree of restrictions on foreign ownership of equities. The initial opening of a market as given by our measure corresponds well with the liberalization dates of Bekaert and Harvey (2000a). In addition, our measure provides information on the extent of the initial opening as well as the evolution of the liberalization over time. After presenting the measure, we compare it to other existing measures of capital controls and briefly describe empirical applications concerning home bias, capital flows to emerging markets, and the effects of financial liberalization on the cost of capital.
Keywords:
WP; capital control; liberalization date; IFCI index; IFC indices; IFC index; investable index; emerging markets; international financial liberalization; openness; portfolio investment; Capital controls; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stocks; Market capitalization; Stock markets; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
Keywords:
SP; price level; inflation rate; credit growth; reserve country; indexed debt; country estimate; pegged-rate regime; issuance policy; Stocks; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Domestic credit; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region
Mr. Tim Callen
and
Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper uses the G-Cubed (Asia-Pacific) model-a macroeconomic model with rich cross-country links-to explore the implications for Japan and Asia of several shocks to the Japanese economy. The results suggest that, while fiscal consolidation in Japan would initially dampen domestic growth, over the medium term the impact on both the domestic and regional economies would be positive. Quantitative monetary easing in Japan would boost domestic activity in the short-run, while being basically neutral for the region. Finally, a loss of confidence in the yen would be negative for Japan, but positive for the region because of a reallocation of capital flows toward non-Japan Asia.
Keywords:
WP; Japan; real GDP; price; real interest rate; Asia-Pacific region; macroeconomic model; yen depreciation; equity price; role Japan; BoJ purchase; price effect; imports of machinery; depreciation of the yen; foreign direct investment; Real interest rates; Exports; Fiscal consolidation; Imports; Asia and Pacific; Europe