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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 47 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand’s longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory. Significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflationtargeting monetary policy framework; supply and use tables; monetary policy analysis; Thai baht; Trade balance; Inflation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
export sophistication; insolvency regime; NDC roadmap; emissions trend; resource reallocation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Debt restructuring; Solvency; Carbon tax; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tackling Private Over-Indebtedness in Asia: Economic and Legal Aspects
Jose M Garrido
,
Miss Sanaa Nadeem
,
Nagwa Riad
,
Anjum Rosha
,
Ms. Chanda M DeLong
, and
Ms. Nadia Rendak
One consequence of interest rates remaining “too low for too long” since the Global Financial Crisis is the buildup in private leverage in emerging economies. These vulnerabilities have been laid bare by the COVID-19 shock. This paper employs the growth at risk framework (Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone, 2019) to examine how different types of private leverage present risks to future GDP growth in Asian economies. We find evidence that private leverage can boost GDP growth in the near term, but can increase the risks of low growth over the medium term. For our sample, we also find that household debt poses a larger drag on future GDP growth than corporate debt. In the second part of the paper, we provide an overview of a strategy for prevention and resolution of over-indebtedness, with a focus on legal tools, and with considerations to account for the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a novel cross-country survey, we examine the role of legal techniques to prevent and treat corporate and household over-indebtedness, benchmarking those in ASEAN-5, China, India, Japan and Korea against international best practice. The analysis can inform a country-specific prioritized approach to strengthening legal frameworks.
Keywords:
WP; household debt; legal system; debt enforcement; enterprise debt; restructuring mechanism; resource allocation; reorganization procedure; debt restructuring; disposable income; repayment plan; enterprise liability; a number of debt-restructuring option; Solvency; Debt restructuring; Legal support in revenue administration; Corporate insolvency; Credit; Global; Private debt; corporate debt; legal frameworks; insolvency; household debt expansion; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Myanmar’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. These developments have greatly amplified uncertainty and could heighten downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation, including related policy responses from the authorities, and will continue to work on assessing its impact in the Myanmar economy. Although long-term prospects remain favorable, near-term growth is likely to remain below potential as the correction in real estate market and continued uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment in the runup to the 2020 elections. Starting FY2020/21, bank deleveraging will further slow credit and constrain gross domestic product growth as borrower’s true ability to repay is revealed with term loans coming due and banks restructure in earnest.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM financing; financing; CDOT; CBM; headline inflation; FX auction rule; foreign exchange; monetary policy effectiveness; financing option; External sector statistics; Monetary operations; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; Exchange rates
Cover Policy Papers
The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt-Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Keywords:
PP; fund's lending framework; lending; further consideration; annex; framework; financing commitment; Market access criterion; debt restructuring; prospects lie; Debt restructuring; Debt sustainability; Spillovers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tracking Global Demand for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt
Serkan Arslanalp
and
Takahiro Tsuda
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
Keywords:
WP; government debt; investor holding; government bond; long-term debt; International Finance; Financial Crises; Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions; investor base; holdings maturing; debt maturity profile; maturity profile; short-term debt; foreign holding; banks vis-à-vis nonbank sector; EM government debt; EM government debt universe; investor base dataset; Foreign banks; Securities markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Government securities; Global; Africa; Asia and Pacific; investor base data; position index; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Financial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery
Ms. Manuela Goretti
and
Mr. Marcos R Souto
High corporate indebtedness can pose an important threat to the adjustment processes in some of the Euro area periphery countries, through its drag on investment as well as the possible migration of private sector losses to the sovereign balance sheet. This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of corporate debt overhang in recent years, confirming empirical evidence in the literature on the relationship between a firm’s balance sheet position and its investment choices, especially beyond certain threshold levels. Building on an event study of past crisis experiences with corporate deleveraging, it also discusses the expected macro-financial impact of the ongoing deleveraging processes in these countries, presenting available policy options to facilitate an orderly balance-sheet adjustment and support a return to productivity and growth.
Keywords:
WP; firm; capital structure; net; balance sheet indicator; Corporate Investment; Debt overhang; Deleveraging; Crisis; Euro Area; investment decision; investment-to-capital ratio; funding option; firms' ability; Financial statements; Debt burden; Debt restructuring; East Asia; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Position Notes
Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises
Thomas Laryea
This paper starts from a discussion of the economic case for moderated government intervention in debt restructuring in the nonfinancial corporate sector. It then draws on lessons from past crises to explain three broad approaches that have been applied to corporate debt restructurings in the aftermath of a crisis. From there, it addresses challenges in designing and implementing a comprehensive debt restructuring strategy and draws together some key principles.
Keywords:
SPN; restructuring strategy; default case; debt problem; debt substitution; financial support; private sector; restructuring agreement; restructuring process; private sector debt problem; debt restructuring guideline; debt restructuring effort; household debt problem; debt restructuring strategy; pre-existing debt; debt-servicing obligation; restructuring phase; Debt restructuring; Debt strategy; Legal support in revenue administration; Solvency; Global; wake of financial crises; government intervention; Corporate sector
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2009 Article IV Consultation Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Thailand has been in an investment slump since 2006. Political turmoil has led to reduced business confidence and slow private investment growth. The main engine of growth for the economy has been the export sector. The authorities have focused on fiscal measures to stimulate the economy since the second half of 2008. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ fiscal stimulus plans, and underscored that timely and efficient implementation of these plans is critical at the current juncture.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; credit growth; investor confidence; staff appraisal; monetary policy; remainder financing; accommodative fiscal policy; Fiscal stimulus; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Global