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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 51 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Keywords:
WP; flow data; portfolio flow; debt flow; flow proxy; IMF balance of payments statistic; portfolio flows; fund flows; balance of payments; coincident indicators; IIF data; IMF balance of payments data; Capital flows; Stocks; Balance of payments statistics; Flow of funds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes factors that could bring inflation back to target in Thailand. The paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying parameters to gauge the quantitative role of (long-term) inflation trends, economic slack, and import price inflation in shaping inflation dynamics. The analysis reveals some important changes in Thailand’s inflation dynamics. It suggests that the impact of lower import prices was a major factor behind the decline in headline inflation in 2015, with low oil prices the largest contributor to inflation dynamics. Monetary policy easing, within a broader expansionary policy mix, should help bring inflation back to target.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Thailand; inflation expectation; monetary policy; trend inflation estimate; savings-investment perspective; inflation dynamics; Thailand's current account norm; Inflation; Private investment; Current account; Terms of trade; External balance assessment (EBA); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the Thai economy’s continued recovery in 2016. GDP growth reached 3.2 percent, driven mainly by exports of services and public investment. Amid subdued import growth and soaring tourism, the external current account strengthened further to 11.4 percent of GDP. Average headline inflation was 0.2 percent, below the tolerance band for the second year in a row, reflecting low energy prices and persistently weak core inflation. The recovery is expected to advance at a moderate pace in the near to medium term. Public investment should remain a key driver, rising over the next few years in line with the government’s infrastructure plans and crowding in private investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; core inflation; staff appraisal; staff's projection; average headline inflation; government efficiency; U.S. dollar; Inflation; Commercial banks; Inflation targeting; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics
Mr. Robert M Heath
The liberalization of capital flows both in the domestic economy and cross-border has been among the most important policies adopted by IMF member countries over recent decades. The impact has been wide-ranging. This paper looks at the impact on the field of economic and financial statistics in the past two decades, as statisticians have responded to the changing policy needs. The paper considers the historical context of changes that have occurred, draws out the key trends, and asks where these trends might lead statisticians in the foreseeable future. The paper considers that there has been nothing short of a revolution in the field of economic and financial statistics over the past two decades led by a need for greater transparency; greater standardization; new data sets to support understanding of financial interconnections and financial sector risks; and the strengthening of the governance of the statistical function through greater independence of statistical agencies.
Keywords:
WP; economic statistics; economy; liberalization; market; financial crisis; leading indicator; capital account liberalization; transparency; data dissmination standards; Group of Twenty; financial sector; financial interconnections; data dissemination standard; SDDS subscription; world balance of payments system; policy interest; balance of payments compiler; IMF paper; GDDS country; market reaction; SDDS requirements; IMF surveillance; a number of economy; IMF staff in consultation; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Financial statistics; Data dissemination; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
ASEAN Financial Integration
Mr. Gerard J Almekinders
,
Mr. Alex Mourmouras
,
Ms. Jianping Zhou
,
Satoshi Fukuda
, and
Yong Sarah Zhou
The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN’s financial integration and prospects. ASEAN integration could accelerate in the years ahead; it will likely be a safe, gradual process consistent with the “ASEAN way” of consensus decision-making. Properly phased and sequenced, closer financial integration has the potential to help increase real incomes and accelerate real convergence within ASEAN and narrow the region’s gap with advanced Asia. Realizing the promise of financial integration will require ASEAN countries to make long-term investments in financial infrastructure. Policymakers can draw on the experience of their more advanced peers and of other regions. Gradualism and safeguards should not be excuses for inaction or financial protectionism. Reliance on flexible policy frameworks and a strengthened and tested regional financial safety net should be part of the agenda. Closer engagement with the Fund could also help.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN country; ASEAN capital account integration agenda; ASEAN connectivity; ASEAN member states; ASEAN nation; ASEAN; Financial integration; capital flows; financial sector liberalization; ASEAN policymaker; AEC framework; ASEAN banking framework; ASEAN capital account liberalization; ASEAN banking link; capital market; ASEAN banking integration framework; Capital account liberalization; Financial sector development; Capital account; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
ASEAN Financial Integration
Mr. Gerard J Almekinders
,
Mr. Alex Mourmouras
,
Ms. Jianping Zhou
,
Satoshi Fukuda
, and
Yong Sarah Zhou
The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN’s financial integration and prospects. ASEAN integration could accelerate in the years ahead; it will likely be a safe, gradual process consistent with the “ASEAN way” of consensus decision-making. Properly phased and sequenced, closer financial integration has the potential to help increase real incomes and accelerate real convergence within ASEAN and narrow the region’s gap with advanced Asia. Realizing the promise of financial integration will require ASEAN countries to make long-term investments in financial infrastructure. Policymakers can draw on the experience of their more advanced peers and of other regions. Gradualism and safeguards should not be excuses for inaction or financial protectionism. Reliance on flexible policy frameworks and a strengthened and tested regional financial safety net should be part of the agenda. Closer engagement with the Fund could also help.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN country; ASEAN capital account integration agenda; ASEAN connectivity; ASEAN member states; ASEAN nation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
and
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
Keywords:
WP; asset; price; current account; deficit; exchange rate; interest rate; crises; balance sheets; business cycles; capital flows; construction boom; emerging market economy; foreign exchange; FX assets; capital account; Capital inflows; Financial statements; Return on investment; Current account deficits; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Surging Capital Flows to Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts, and Responses
Sylwia Nowak
,
Mr. Sanjaya P Panth
,
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
, and
Mr. Yiqun Wu
Net capital flows to emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and compares developments in the broader economy, asset prices, and corporate variables across the different episodes of strong inflows. We find little evidence of a significant build-up of imbalances and resource misallocation during the most recent surge. We also review country experiences in managing the risks associated with inflows and argue that Asian countries have used regulatory measures during past surges, although there is not strong evidence of their efficacy without supporting monetary and fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; ED142; financial crisis; Indonesia; Thailand; net capital; Asia; capital inflows; macroprudential policy; interest rate; net capital flow; portfolio equity; equity ratio; IMF staff calculation; portfolio debt; central bank; portfolio flow; Capital flows; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Balance of payments statistics; Private capital flows; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effectiveness of Capital Controls in Selected Emerging Markets in the 2000's
Chikako Baba
and
Annamaria Kokenyne
This paper estimates the effectiveness of capital controls in response to inflow surges in Brazil, Colombia, Korea, and Thailand in the 2000s. Controls are generally associated with a decrease in inflows and a lengthening of maturities, but the relationship is not statistically significant in all cases, and the effects are temporary. Controls are more successful in providing room for monetary policy than dampening currency appreciation pressures. We argue that the macroeconomic impact of capital controls depends on the extensiveness of the policy, the level of capital market development, the support provided by other policies, and the persistence of capital flows.
Keywords:
WP; capital control; control index; capital; The URR; capital controls; private capital flows; emerging market economies; interest rate differential; outflow liberalization; policy in Brazil; outflow control liberalization; currency appreciation; outflow control index; inflow control; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Business cycles; Current account balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?
Mr. Roberto Piazza
In emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. I show that, in the presence of financial markets imperfections, a simple modification of a neoclassical growth model can account for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors optimally choose to suddenly restrict lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down growth. The economy defaults and enters a financial crisis.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent